Mapping out your future.

Not so very long ago, nursing home managers wanting to graphically represent market data for better analysis and presentation were likely to find themselves drawing circles and affixing labels to road maps. That was just about the only way to see exactly what area fell within a five-, ten-, or 20-mile radius of a nursing home site. Census or other demographic data would then be added to the map by shading it with colored pencils or pasting on little dots. What the map could contain was limited by the information available, the time it took to hand apply it, and just how graphically complex it could et and still be understood (and, sometimes, how sticky those little dots were).

The desktop computer has revolutionized this process. Desktop mapping is a technique, the value of which is based on the recognition that all demographic, facility, utilization and business data share one common factor when applied to marketing: geography. The result is called geocoding -- associating a specific geographic place with a piece of data. Low-cost computing power has made it possible to download demographic, patient, and market information directly onto maps programmed to contain as many or as few dimensions of data as the user may want. That same revolution in computing has made more data than ever before readily available for study, comparison, and connection.

And not a moment too soon.

Increased cost-consciousness and managed care concerns are making detailed market data and analysis primary concerns for health care providers. "Providers need this type of demographic information, and a means of interpreting it quickly and effectively," says Michael Chermak, President of Healthdemographics, a San Diego-based firm specializing in the development of databases, information products and decision support systems for the health care industry. Healthdemographics sells software to analyze and map health care marketing data, and it provides market analysis as a consulting service.

The heart of Healthdemographics' mapping system is software from MapInfo Corporation, a strategic partner, and founder of, and largest player in, the desktop mapping market (a market, incidentally, that analysts peg at about $400 million). MapInfo's software of the same name is in the hands of more than 150,000 users.

"Traditionally," says Randy Drawas, MapInfo's Vice President of Communications, "these kinds of mapping tools required a technician or an engineer to use them, and were employed primarily by the cartographic sciences. Now we find that our software is used by everyday business folk -- everybody from a police detective doing crime analysis to a sales manager analyzing territories."

Software such as Healthdemographics', which sells for from 1,500 to $5,000, and MapInfo's, base priced at $1,295, relies on copious amounts of data acquired from national demographic and business databases, as well as those collected by individual users in their own database. These data can be downloaded from any of the popular commercially available database programs on Dos/Windows systems, Macintosh systems, and HP and Sun Unix systems.

Though Healthdemographics' Chermak says that the cost incurred by an organization with a person dedicated to this kind of market research would be in the vicinity of $50,000 a year, MapInfo's Drawas maintains that anyone possessing basic computer literacy would find it easy to learn MapInfo. In fact he says, "It doesn't take a market research specialist to use MapInfo, although it is a big tool for market research analysts. In the scheme of things it is probably like learning Excel [one of the most popular desktop database programs]."

Both companies sell their basic software and offer ancillary analysis products and data downloads for it. These additional programs and databases can take software costs substantially above the entry level prices. Whatever the cost, both companies say the health care database mapping market is one to watch.

"We are seeing explosive growth in the health care area," says Drawas. "Health care, in the last year and a half, has become one of our key core markets."

While most of the focus has been on the needs of managed care organizations and hospitals and their suppliers, nursing homes are beginning to be seen as a growing market for desktop mapping. Many chains already have national and regional market analysis functions, and desktop mapping companies are looking to gain users within the chains' marketing departments.

"I think nursing homes are going to be very important for us over the next 20 to 40 years," forecasts Chermak. "You just can't get away from the fact that there is a whole generation of baby-boomers out there aging. Long-term care is still an emerging market for us, but it is going to be a big one."

Issues important specifically to nursing home companies -- long-term care populations, subacute market analysis, demand for assisted living and home health care -- are emerging on the desktop mapping horizon. Chermak suggests that nursing homes, even the major chains, are probably at least five years behind hospitals in employing desktop mapping -- which only means that the demand for nursing home-specific mappable data, while still light, is growing.

An example of what is beginning to appear is Healthdemographics' approach to subacute care: "What we have done is to take the DRGs that make up the subacute business and forecast what demand a facility would expect, given the demographics of a population in a geographic area," explains Chermak. "You can identify those DRGs and know exactly where they are coming from. A nursing home thinking of providing certain subacute services can map their potential against others who are already providing those services, in a kind of snapshot of potential demand and supply. In many states you can get the exact number of DRG discharges. You would want to look at this much more deeply if you were making a significant business decision, but even this very gross level may help in setting expectations about the potential magnitude of a facility's market."

"Mapping," sums up Drawas, "is a data visualization capability. It is the best way to correlate the data, bring the data together, visualize them in a picture, and provide the tools that let you drill beneath the surface and understand why things happen, and what would be likely to happen if you took certain steps. It shows you what your marketplace looks like and indicates where you should establish new facilities and services. It helps you answer the question of whether your facilities are in the best locations to serve the customer base you want."

If desktop mapping can truly do all that for the nursing home industry, what is an emerging market today will become a burgeoning one tomorrow.