Malaria and Global Warming in Perspective?To the Editor: I read with great interest the article "From Shakespeare to Defoe: malaria in England in the Little Ice Age" (1). Unfortunately, the article is not as balanced as a presentation last year by Paul Reiter Paul Reiter is a professor of medical entomology at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, France. He is a member of the World Health Organization Expert Advisory Committee on Vector Biology and Control. He was an employee of the Center for Disease Control (Dengue Branch) for 22 years. , which clearly illustrated that, although climate is important in the transmission of malaria, the influence of other factors (e.g., access to medical care and improved housing) is likely to be of more importance in Europe. Malaria indeed was quite common in Europe, even in the Roman Empire and in Medieval Europe, and until a few decades ago, it was still present in parts of Europe, Australia, and North America North America, third largest continent (1990 est. pop. 365,000,000), c.9,400,000 sq mi (24,346,000 sq km), the northern of the two continents of the Western Hemisphere. . In fact, the failure of the 1806 British invasion British Invasion Musical movement. In the mid 1960s the popularity of a number of British rock-and-roll (“beat”) groups spread rapidly to the U.S., beginning with the triumphant arrival of Liverpool's Beatles in New York in 1964 and continuing with the Rolling of Zeeland in the Netherlands may be attributable to infection of the British forces with malaria. However, the authors referenced by Reiter have never made the claim that in the coming years warmer "temperatures will result in ma]aria transmission in Europe and North America." On the contrary, the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “IPCC” redirects here. For other uses, see IPCC (disambiguation). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Reiter quotes conclude that "Although climate change could increase the potential transmission of malaria [in Europe and North America], existing public health resources--disease surveillance, surface water management, and treatment of cases--would make reemergent malaria unlikely" (2,3). Reiter's argument that some scientists attribute the recent observed increase in malaria risk to climate trends is also not accurate. While acknowledging the sensitivity of the malaria mosquito and parasite parasite, plant or animal that at some stage of its existence obtains its nourishment from another living organism called the host. Parasites may or may not harm the host, but they never benefit it. to climate, these researchers examine insect and incidence data to explore multiple factors underlying malaria emergence. Another group of scientists uses mathematical simulation models to estimate changes in malaria risk over the next few decades. These models, which are heuristic A method of problem solving using exploration and trial and error methods. Heuristic program design provides a framework for solving the problem in contrast with a fixed set of rules (algorithmic) that cannot vary. 1. tools not meant to predict future worlds, assess how potential risk for malaria may by affected by changes in climate (4). The goals of both types of research are to improve knowledge of the complex malaria transmission cycle, define epidemic-prone areas, identify the reasons for increased malaria risk, and develop solutions to protect vulnerable communities. Dr. Reiter acknowledges the sensitivity of malaria to climatic influences, and I am sure that he agrees that change in climate will affect risk for transmission--he may be skeptical as to whether global warming global warming, the gradual increase of the temperature of the earth's lower atmosphere as a result of the increase in greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution. will ever become a fact, but that is another question. While Reiter's paper offers an interesting perspective on the history of malaria in Europe, it provides no illuminating information on the influence of climate change on human health. References (1.) Reiter P. From Shakespeare to Defoe: malaria in England in the Little Ice Age. Emerg Infect Dis 2000;6:1-11. (2.) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability. Working Group II. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York New York, state, United States New York, Middle Atlantic state of the United States. It is bordered by Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and the Atlantic Ocean (E), New Jersey and Pennsylvania (S), Lakes Erie and Ontario and the Canadian province of : Cambridge University Press Cambridge University Press (known colloquially as CUP) is a publisher given a Royal Charter by Henry VIII in 1534, and one of the two privileged presses (the other being Oxford University Press). ; 1998. Chapters 5, 8. (3.) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate change 1995: impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analyses. Working Group II, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York: Cambridge University Press; 1996. Chapter 18. (4.) Martens P. Health and climate change: modelling the impacts of global warming and ozone depletion Ozone depletion describes two distinct, but related observations: a slow, steady decline of about 4 percent per decade in the total amount of ozone in Earth's stratosphere since around 1980; and a much larger, but seasonal, decrease in stratospheric ozone over Earth's polar regions . London: Earthscan Publications Ltd.; 1998. For Reiter's response, please see http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol6no4/reiter.htm Pim Martens Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands |
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