Major minor.

BRITISH voters have sent a powerful message of discontent to Prime Minister John Major and his Conservative Party. But will the Tories listen? In the recent local elections, the Tories suffered a stunning setback, pulling only 27 per cent of the vote and dropping to third place behind Labour's 41 per cent and the Liberal Democrats' 28 per cent. Most commentators blame Mr. Major's lackluster leadership, or splits in the party over European integration, or a series of embarrassing scandals. Undoubtedly all these factors are partly to blame for the Tories' defeat. But it should also be recalled that during the 1992 election campaign, Mr. Major pledged not to raise taxes. It was thought at the time to be the main reason for the Tory victory over a high-tax Labour Party. Then he and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kenneth Clarke promptly gave the UK its biggest tax increase in peacetime history. The tax hike became fully effective this April, and Britons promptly sent their electoral message of dissent in early May.

These tax increases may also be smothering what looked like a promising economic recovery. Car sales have recently slumped, and overall retail sales have slowed from a 4.4 per cent yearly gain as of last July to 3.5 per cent this March. Members of the Confederation of British Industry recently registered a decline in optimism. While industrial production had a healthy 4.9 per cent gain in March, unemployment remains high at 9.7 per cent, and real GDP growth has averaged a paltry 0.5 per cent per year since 1990. Sound familiar? George Bush was fired by American voters under a similar indictment, with Canada's Brian Mulroney suffering the same fate, virtually destroying his Progressive Conservative Party. In Germany, Helmut Kohl also broke his tax pledge, and the CDU-CSU has suffered badly in provincial elections. In France, conservative Edouard Balladur, who also raised taxes, lost his nerve on key reforms such as privatization and youth wage reforms, pulling back in the face of hostile demonstrations from unions and leftist students.

Let us call it the Tory Disease, afflicting national leaders who campaign successfully as conservatives, then govern unsuccessfully as social democrats. In the post-Cold War period voters--no longer wedded to establishments whose claim to legitimacy was that they would protect us from Communism--have grown unforgiving toward politicians who break campaign promises. But the establishments continue to equate "governing" with raising taxes. Seldom has the West seen such a wide gap between an arrogant political class and a populist electorate. If the Tory disease persists, look for voters to keep firing incumbents until they get what they voted for.