MURDOCH THRIVES ON BIG DEALS; ANALYSTS SAY SPORTS, SATELLITE TV ON HIS LIST.

Byline: Dave McNary Daily News Staff Writer

The big question about Rupert Murdoch is not if he'll fire everyone at 20th Century Fox or change the Los Angeles Dodgers' color to chartreuse. It's what he'll buy next for his News Corp. communications empire.

Murdoch's pending deals will bring him Pat Robertson's Family Channel for $1.9 billion, the Dodgers for about $350 million and a 40 percent joint-venture stake in Cablevision's sports assets for $850 million. He shows no signs of slowing down.

News Corp.'s near collapse in the early 1990s forced the sale of several billion dollars worth of assets but Murdoch's incessant deal-making has pushed the value of the assets from under $15 billion in 1993 to somewhere near $25 billion today. Murdoch owns about 31 percent of News Corp.

Future acquisitions could include TV stations, newspapers, cable networks and film and TV libraries. But over the next decade, analysts say, ownership in two relatively new areas - sports and satellite TV - will become crucially important for Murdoch.

Since inheriting parts of a few Australian newspapers in 1953, Murdoch has become the world's foremost deal-maker, building his empire through a combination of heart-stopping acquisitions and browbeating micromanagement.

No one believes he'll change at age 66.

The recent deals have stunned the communications industry because, in each case, Murdoch is moving into new territory - team ownership with the Dodgers, family-oriented cable programming with the Family Channel and creating a new cable sports network with Cablevision.

``The Dodgers will be a launching pad for further sports acquisitions,'' says media analyst Arthur Rockwell of Yaeger Capital Markets in Los Angeles. ``American sports are becoming much more important overseas and slowly but surely, they're taking hold. It's a couch potato world we live in.''

For Murdoch, once the Dodgers deal goes through, the logical move will be to buy a football team for Los Angeles and other L.A. teams as they become available, analysts believe. But they don't rule out Murdoch purchases outside the region, either, noting that the Cablevision deal gives him 20 percent stakes in pro basketball's New York Knicks and hockey's New York Rangers.

``Buying the Dodgers is primarily a media distribution deal for Murdoch, so he won't stop with this one,'' says Los Angeles sports marketing consultant David Carter. ``He loves the thrill of the deal and being in competition.''

The Cablevision deal is designed primarily to allow Murdoch and partners Tele-Communications Inc. and Cablevision to launch a national sports network to take on Walt Disney Co.'s lucrative ESPN. Under it, News Corp. and TCI also gain 40 percent ownership of Madison Square Garden, and the Knicks and Rangers, but Cablevision retains management control.

Carter said Murdoch is likely to strike deals to make himself majority owner of other sports properties because of the greater profit potential from selling the broadcast rights to News Corp. and from advertising over the new sports network.

``If he can find a more attractive property, he'll make the deal,'' Carter explained. ``Owning sports teams for Murdoch will be mainly just a tactic for controlling distribution.''

There are four major reasons why Murdoch will keep buying assets, according to analysts:

His strategy of aggressive acquisition has worked well for four decades and is the essential cornerstone of News Corp.'s philosophy. ``Based on Murdoch's history as an aggressive acquisitor, one would think we're likely to see more deals,'' said Furman Selz analyst Stewart Halpern.

Unique properties such as the Dodgers occasionally will come on the market with global companies like News Corp. being the only players with deep enough pockets to make the deals.

Global demand for News Corp. programs should surge over the next decade as foreign markets like China, Latin America and India develop. Generally, sports and family programming, particularly animation, play well in multiple overseas markets.

Owning the programming and distribution will continue to be an effective method of boosting profits. ``You're able to capture more by being on both sides of the table,'' says NatWest Securities analyst Gary Farber.

In short, analysts believe Murdoch will keep scrambling to make his company the dominant player in entertainment, news and sports. That means obtaining more programming for more markets and being willing to endure years of heavy start-up losses of new distribution systems.

``Murdoch can bring real global economies of scale and do things no one else can do,'' says Lawrence Gerbrandt, a media analyst with Paul Kagan Associates. ``He knows the value of being in the marketplace early.''

Changes at stadium

For nearly everyone else, owning the Dodgers would be overwhelming. But the Dodgers will be only a small piece of News Corp., the world's largest newspaper publisher and satellite TV operator. At $350 million, the Dodgers represent less than 2 percent of News Corp.'s value.

The pending deals with the Dodgers and Cablevision will enable News Corp. to start Fox Sports Net - a national network combining the nine regional Fox-TCI sports networks with Cablevision's eight regional networks along with rights to the Knicks, Rangers and New York Yankees. The regional channels usually will show local programming but some major events, ads and news shows could be shown on all channels simultaneously.

A crucial part of the Dodgers deal likely will occur when News Corp. direct-broadcast satellite - or DBS - networks in Europe, Asia and Latin America start showing Dodgers telecasts and peddling Dodgers merchandise.

Of course, taking the Dodgers into foreign markets may be complicated, even for Murdoch. He will have to clear the DBS deals with his fellow baseball team owners, easily the most stubborn in sports, and likely will seek to change the current rules providing for equal distribution of foreign revenues.

On the other hand, the prospect of using a heavyweight like the Dodgers to unlock new revenues for the whole sport likely will be highly persuasive. Ultimately, it would be a surprise if Murdoch doesn't get his way.

Dean Bonham, president and chief executive officer of the Denver-based Bonham Group marketing firm, forecast that Murdoch's Dodgers will offer much more than ``Fox attitude,'' as the network's sports ads currently proclaim. In short, Bonham says, marketing efforts will become global.

``The Dodger brand is one of the few that really mean something, so you can be sure that Murdoch will maximize that revenue stream, not only domestically but also in places like Asia and South America and Europe,'' Bonham said. ``A lot more people will become Dodger fans.''

Changes will come to Chavez Ravine, just as they have to Murdoch's newspapers and TV properties. Revenues from parking, concessions, sponsors, merchandising and broadcasting will have to increase to cover debt service on the $350 million deal.

Remodeling likely

Carter and other observers say Murdoch's next likely move in a year or two will be to remodel Dodger Stadium with lucrative luxury boxes, buy a football team, build a football stadium next to Dodger Stadium, and develop the property into an entertainment complex, much like Universal Studios' CityWalk.

It's worth noting that current Dodgers owner Peter O'Malley decided to sell the team partly because of frustration with not being able to get city leaders to back the idea of bringing a football team to his property. Analysts say flatly Murdoch will not have the same problem, noting he was able to start up the Fox Network despite much more complicated political and regulatory obstacles.

``There's no doubt that Murdoch has political and financial clout to get another stadium built next to Dodger Stadium,'' Rockwell said.

Meanwhile, Wall Street continues to fret about Murdoch. Wall Street would like Murdoch to stop the huge losses at DBS operations in China, Indonesia and India; curtail 20th Century Fox from risky mega-budget movie projects like ``Titanic'' and ``Speed 2''; and to slow down the deal-making.

In short, Wall Street wants Murdoch to be like Mike - Michael Eisner, that is. That would mean getting the stock price up again and running the company like Eisner runs Burbank-based Walt Disney Co., with a manageable debt load and steadily increasing profits.