MOVIE MAGIC STRENGTHENS POTENTIAL BLOCKBUSTERS WAIT IN THE WINGS.

Byline: Greg Hernandez Staff Writer

The holiday season is poised to provide some blockbuster-sized box office gifts ranging from the third and final installments of ``The Lord of the Rings'' and ``Matrix'' series to dramatic epics headlined by superstars Tom Cruise and Russell Crowe.

Throw Mike Myers as Dr. Seuss' famous hat-wearing cat, Eddie Murphy in a scary family comedy and a host of Academy Award hopefuls into the mix and the final stretch of 2003 should have enough firepower to edge the movie industry past last year's record box office haul of $9.4 billion, several box office analysts said this week.

``I think we'll do it because there's a pretty good balance of films,'' said Robert Bucksbaum, president of box office tracker Reel Source Inc. ``You've got your blockbusters, 'Lord of the Rings' and 'Matrix,' but I also think (Cruise's) 'The Last Samurai' and (Crowe's) 'Master and Commander' will exceed expectations because of their adult appeal.''

Bucksbaum and others also believe that movie ticket admissions - the true measure of year-to-year attendance - will surpass last year's record.

``Despite the up-and-down nature of this year, it's quite possible we could end up with the records, especially based on the performance we are seeing from the box office right now,'' said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box office tracker Exhibitor Relations Co.

Another record year had seemed unlikely after a series of expected summer blockbusters severely underperformed and resulted in several slumping weekends at the box office.

But the fall, typically a slower moviegoing period, provided a stirring comeback with superb opening weekends for ``Scary Movie 3,'' ``Texas Chainsaw Massacre,'' ``Kill Bill Vol. 1,'' and ``School of Rock.''

Now the momentum is strong heading into November and December.

``These are two very important months,'' Dergarabedian said. ``Dollar for dollar, the holiday period is just as important as the summer. It's half the time frame of the summer but accounts for almost 20 percent of the whole year's box office.''

The holiday season kicks off Wednesday night with the release of ``The Matrix: Revolutions,'' which is being released less than six months after the theatrical run of ``The Matrix: Reloaded,'' a $281.5 million hit.

Brandon Gray, editor of Boxofficemojo.com, believes ``Revolutions'' has more breathing room than its predecessor, which made the bulk of its money during the first few weeks of its run before suffering a steep drop-off in the face of heavy summer competition.

``It seems to be really light on direct competition through Thanksgiving and, as a final picture in a trilogy, it should be more satisfying to the audience than a middle movie is,'' he said. ``It will most likely have a smaller opening than 'Reloaded' but probably longer legs. It's a lock to do over $200 million.''

``The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King,'' which opens Dec. 21, would have to earn more than $339.8 million to match the phenomenal gross of last year's ``The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.'' The first film in the phenomenally successful series, ``The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring,'' earned a stellar $313.4 million two years ago.

`` 'Return of the King' will probably be one of the few third movies that bucks a trend,'' Gray predicted. ``It's poised to do more than 'Two Towers,' which outgrossed 'Fellowship.' That was unprecedented.''

While the two trilogies have built-in audiences, which essentially guarantee blockbuster status, experts agree that the live-action version of ``The Cat in the Hat'' has blockbuster written all over it. The Dr. Seuss adaptation will be competing against a host of family-oriented films, including the Murphy comedy ``The Haunted Mansion,'' Disney's animated ``Brother Bear'' and Warner Bros.' animated/live action offering ``Looney Tunes: Back in Action.''

``I think all the family movies will be cannibalizing each other, with the exception of 'Cat in the Hat,' because adults want to see it as much as kids,'' Bucksbaum said.

But one other family film that could also hit big is the Will Ferrell comedy ``Elf,'' which hits theaters Nov. 7, a similar release date to last year's hit ``The Santa Clause 2.''

``When people see it, they like it - there's a positive buzz on that picture,'' Gray said. ``It could be Will Farrell's breakout star vehicle.''

In addition to the crowd pleasers, a host of movies with Oscar potential are being released, including the Civil War epic ``Cold Mountain'' starring Nicole Kidman and Jude Law.

``A lot of the surprise box office winners will come from the Oscar contenders that will end up crossing into the mainstream,'' Bucksbaum said. ``There are no (box office) expectations for those movies, but, once they start getting that Oscar buzz and with a shortened Oscar season, this will bode well for the box office in next few months.''

Some big-name stars are headlining comedies during the season, led by Oscar winners Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton in ``Something's Got to Give,'' Steve Martin and Bonnie Hunt in the remake of ``Cheaper by the Dozen'' and Matt Damon and Greg Kinnear as conjoined twins in the Farrelly Brothers comedy ``Stuck on You,'' which also features Cher.

``What the holiday period is to me is like the whole year thrown into a blender,'' said Dergarabedian. ``You are taking everything and, for 7-8 weeks, you've got every type of movie out there. There are summer-style films, epics, romantic comedies, the Oscar contenders, family films and animated films. This is the best time to be a moviegoer.''

Greg Hernandez, [phone]

greg.hernandez(at)dailynews.com

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Photo:

(1 -- 4 -- color) Riding to the rescue in ``The Lord of the Rings: Return on the King,'' above, is Viggo Mortensen as Aragon, while Tom Cruise wields a sword in the 19th-century epic ``The Last Samurai,'' top left. Meanwhile, ubiquitous Agent Smith (Hugo Weaving), top, piles on in ``The Matrix: Revolutions,'' while Eddie Murphy scares up some laughs in Disney's ``The Haunted Mansion.''