MOROCCO - The Prospects.

The future of Islamic militancy in Morocco will depend on four basic factors, including: (1) whether or not economic reforms in the kingdom yield results which will change the life of the poorest people, with emphasis on a reduction in unemployment; (2) the success of efforts by Rabat to integrate economically with the European Union, with various agreements already signed envisaging trade barriers to disappear by the year 2010; (3) the success of political reform in gradually drawing the secular opposition groups fully into the ruling superstructure, in order to avoid the risk that they may turn towards an alliance with the Islamists, and (4) the rulership ability of King Mohammed, who has already shown that he is capable of negotiating some tough political challenges.

For their part, the main concern of the top figures in Al Adl Wal Ihsan is about what will happen to their movement if and when Yassine dies. The main issue is who will be his successor. One of the high profile figures is the group's spokeswoman Nadia Yassine, who is the elderly Shaikh's daughter. But her chances of succeeding him are slim.

If the option of violence is ruled out, as Shaikh Yassine did at his post-release press conference, this leaves participation in politics as the only option. If Al Adl Wal Ihsan did enter the political mainstream, which would mean compromising on several of its basic principles, it would not be much different from the other parties. But it would still be able to muster sufficient support to become one of the major political groupings. Whether this will happen while Yassine is alive remains to be seen. He has indicated that he would not compromise on principle.

After his death, the situation could change very dramatically. Many leaders of Al Adl Wal Ihsan are still in prison but some remain outside. A split in the movement is not inconceivable. In any case, the distance that the group has to move in order to enter mainstream politics is not very much. It is moderate in outlook, relative to the other North African militant groups like the Armed Islamic Group in Algeria or the Gamaa Al Islamiyya in Egypt. During its two-decade-long existence, Al Adl Wal Ihsan has never challenged the four-century-old ruling Alaoui dynasty. Likewise, it has not publicly questioned the widely accepted belief that the monarch is a descendant of Prophet Mohamed.