MORNING HANGOVER ANCHOR CHEMISTRY, STORY MIX, EVEN WHAT YOU WATCHED LAST NIGHT ALL AFFECT NETWORK'S A.M. FORTUNES.

Byline: Valerie Kuklenski Staff Writer

Katie eats buckets of live bugs! Matt strips to his shorts for a weigh-in on the set of ``The Biggest Loser''! Charlie and Diane shake their booties in a steamy ``Dancing With the Stars'' samba!

OK, it hasn't come to that yet for ``Today's'' Couric and Lauer or ``Good Morning America's'' Gibson and Sawyer, the often dignified anchors who are battling it out for ratings first thing every weekday morning. But with a scant margin between the news-talk rivals - NBC's ``Today'' led ABC's ``GMA'' by an average 410,000 viewers through the spring - don't be surprised by anything they try in the next few months. At stake is ``Today's'' decade-long No. 1 berth and the advertising dollars that go with it.

``I think we all think the morning is an incredible opportunity,'' said Ben Sherwood, who has been executive producer of ``Good Morning America'' just over a year. ``There are 290 million Americans, and unless you're working the overnight shift, you're at home (at 7 a.m.) and you're starting your day, and you want to know what's going on.''

Both programs are deep into their summertime gimmicks, including the annual ``Today'' wedding contest and both shows' regular live concerts outside their street-level Manhattan studios. Look for them to push the envelope further in the customarily back-to-school, back-to-serious-business fall season.

``Today'' in recent weeks regained some of the audience it lost in the spring, but experts predict that turnaround is merely a summer phenomenon. CBS' third-ranked ``Early Show'' still is not a serious rival, but it has been growing its audience over the past year, no doubt picking up some former ``Today'' devotees.

`` 'Today' is in trouble,'' says Marc Berman, ratings analyst for the trade publication Mediaweek. ``I think there could be an upset next season. It'll be quite an accomplishment if it happens. NBC has been dominant for more than 10 years, and ABC is right on their tail.''

``Today'' last week began a new ad campaign promoting its 500 weeks at No. 1. Berman contends its long-standing leadership may be a hindrance now.

``People have been with the 'Today' show for many years, and they're getting tired of it,'' Berman suggested. ``When you're a top-rated show, you get a lot of attention, but that will get you in the long run, particularly if you trip and fall - and that's what happened to the 'Today' show.''

He also suggests that Couric's negative press, including reports of diva-style behavior, have tarnished the girl-next-door image that first drew viewers to her. But she's been pushing hard these last few months. Her ``exclusive'' interviews with the ``runaway bride'' Jennifer Wilbanks and Monday's interview with ``Harry Potter'' author J.K. Rowling have helped boost ratings because they have started on NBC's prime-time ``Dateline'' and teased viewers into the ``Today'' show the following morning.

Robert Thompson, director of the Center for Study of Popular Television at Syracuse University, has another explanation for the ABC gains and NBC losses.

``I think a lot of it has to do with the fortunes of the networks as a whole. A lot more people are watching 'Good Morning America' on Monday morning because they were watching 'Desperate Housewives' Sunday night,'' he said. ``And these morning shows are promoted most in prime time, so the evening programs with the highest ratings will bring in more viewers the following morning.''

Whatever the reasons for its ratings dip, NBC fired executive producer Tom Touchet and installed former NBC Sports executive Jim Bell in the post in April. In the last few months, the show has started to rebound.

``A couple of the initial changes I've made are more subtle,'' Bell says. ``We used to do one story in the cold open; now we do three, which gives people more of a sense of what's coming up on the show. In the first half-hour, the story selection is newsier.

``When Matt and Katie set the day up, it used to be scripted down to the punctuation marks. They now get to ad lib for a folksier effect,'' Bell adds. ``I don't think those things (newsy and folksy) are mutually exclusive.''

He points to Couric's 10-minute interview with Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice as a skillful blending of hard journalism with informal elements. Bell also noted Lauer's one-on-one with Tom Cruise, which in the midst of the movie star's hundreds of interviews and public appearances for ``War of the Worlds'' remains memorable for Cruise's tirade against psychiatry.

Sawyer, whose morning assignment was said to be temporary when she joined ``GMA'' in 1999, sometimes gets flirtatious and giddy with Gibson, which some viewers have derided online as an artificial ``ditzy blonde'' act. But she can pivot quickly into her more comfortable news persona. Blending the lighthearted banter and the button-down reporting and interviewing is an art, says Thompson.

``We're seeing all three of these shows trying harder to do something they've had to do from the very beginning. Morning shows have always had to be able on a dime to turn from an extraordinarily serious, sometimes heart-rending story of war or disaster and immediately turn to a story about a star promoting a new movie.

``If there's just been a terrorist attack, they have to go into a hard-news mode and conduct serious interviews. But they also have to look good in an apron and stand beside a chef as he prepares a chocolate mousse.''

Sherwood of ``GMA'' sees the morning shows' mission as threefold. ``First, to share with people the important news in the world; second, to bring them the human-interest stories and pictures they're going to talk about all day; and third, to give them the kinds of stories that make for a good start to the day - the entertaining, light, sometimes humorous stuff. So we have this great canvas on which we apply many different colors.''

NBC is looking to its late-night and morning blocks as sources of good news in a season that saw the network fall from No. 1 to No. 4 in the prime-time rankings. ``Today'' has been touted as the most profitable show on network television, even with Couric's hefty contract, reported to be worth $12 million to $16 million a year. A perky 34 when she joined ``Today'' in 1991, Couric's contract is up next May, prompting speculation that the network may be grooming younger - and less expensive - news personalities, such as Alexis Glick or Natalie Morales, to succeed her.

Thompson points out that 7 to 9 a.m. is one time slot in which there is little serious competition on cable, which favors series reruns and infomercials. That seems to compel ``Today,'' ``GMA'' and ``The Early Show'' to try their hardest to sate every type of viewer appetite.

Many elements contribute to a morning show's success - co-anchor chemistry, reputable news coverage and fun, useful segments among them - and the leadership in the race may change again many times in the years to come.

``On the other hand, these things are tied to the success of the network in general,'' Thompson said. ``I think this closing of the gap was absolutely predictable, given the conditions of the networks on the whole.

``I think in many ways, 'Good Morning America' should look to thank for their ratings fortune less what they're doing with their gimmicks and their interviews and more to 'Wife Swap' and 'Lost' and 'Extreme Makeover: Home Edition.' For all their journalistic efforts, it might boil down to that.''

David Kronke contributed to this report.

Valerie Kuklenski, [phone]

valerie.kuklenski(at)dailynews.com

CAPTION(S):

9 photos

Photo:

(1 -- cover -- color) Battle of the A.M. STARS

Morning shows fight for ratings

Photo Illustration by Tom Gapen

(2) Jim Bell, executive producer of NBC's ``Today''

Sara Krulwich/The New York Times

(3 -- 5) NBC's ``Today,'' with Katie Couric and Matt Lauer, top, has seen some ratings erosion recently, but bright spots have been Lauer's much-publicized interview with Tom Cruise, center. Weather forecaster Al Roker does his best Kojak impression, bottom.

Richard Drew/Associated Press

(6 -- 8) At top, ``Good Morning America's'' news reader Robin Roberts, left, often joins Charles Gibson and Diane Sawyer on the anchor desk. Stunts on the show have included Patti LaBelle with Gibson and Sawyer as backup singers, center; and Sawyer, weekend ``GMA'' anchor Bill Weir and weather forecaster Tony Perkins with the stars of ``March of the Penguins,'' bottom.

(9) ``GMA'' sent Bill Weir to London after suicide bombers attacked subways and a bus in England's capital city.