MORE THAN JUST CURLIN.Byline: KEVIN MODESTI HORSE RACING horse racing, trials of speed involving two or more horses. It includes races among harnessed horses with one of two particular gaits, among saddled Thoroughbreds (or, less frequently, quarterhorses) on a flat track, or among saddled horses over a turf course with LOUISVILLE, Ky. - After watching bad racing luck foil my Kentucky Derby Kentucky Derby One of the classic U.S. Thoroughbred horse races. It was established in 1875 and run annually on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs track in Louisville, Ky. With the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes, it makes up U.S. racing's coveted Triple Crown. picks for 17 years in a row, every pick since Sunday Silence Sunday Silence (1986-2002) was an American thoroughbred race horse. He was foaled in 1986 Sired by Halo out of Wishing Well. Though he was registered as a dark bay/brown, he was in fact a true black. paid off against Easy Goer Easy Goer (1986-1994) was an American thoroughbred racehorse, famous for conquering the champion Sunday Silence in the 1989 Belmont Stakes by 8 lengths. The victory deprived Sunday Silence of the Triple Crown. It was also the second fastest Belmont after Secretariat's. , I'm tempted to not even try to select the winner anymore. This isn't surrender. This is strategy. OK, I'll take Curlin to win the 133rd Kentucky Derby, but he's only the pole around which my bid for riches will dance. One of the charms of the Derby, the charm for horseplayers trying to win a lot of money, is that the huge field of 20 runners creates double-digit odds for very accomplished colts. In everyday races at Hollywood Park Hollywood Park may be several places:
There's a small fortune to be made by getting horses like those not necessarily to win but to fill out the runner-up spots in trifectas and superfectas, the bets that challenge fans to nail the top three or four finishers. In 2006, Barbaro won quite logically, but when 30-1 Bluegrass Cat, 16-1 Steppenwolfer and 24-1 Jazil (in a dead heat for fourth with 7-1 Brother Derek) followed him across the line from a safe distance, the trifecta tri·fec·ta n. A system of betting in which the bettor must pick the first three winners in the correct sequence. Also called triple. [tri- + (per)fecta.] paid $11,418 for a $1 bet and the superfecta su·per·fec·ta n. A method of betting in which the bettor, in order to win, must pick the first four finishers of a race in the correct sequence. [super- + (per)fecta.] Noun 1. paid as much as $84,860. Two Derbies before that, Smarty Jones and Lion Heart ran first and second exactly as the public predicted, but when 10-1 Imperialism and 41-1 Limehouse were third and fourth, the super came back $41,380 for a buck. There's a message here. Sportingly, you'd love to be able to brag about betting to win on the long-shot Derby champion. Financially, you'd be happy to settle for carrying bundles of cash to the car after letting mathematical chaos do its tricks. The goal, then, must be to identify a handful of juicy-priced horses to outrun out·run tr.v. out·ran , out·run, out·run·ning, out·runs 1. a. To run faster than. b. To escape from: outrun one's creditors. 2. their odds, and throw them into the trifecta and superfecta hopper. I think the two morning-line favorites are correct top choices, Curlin (7-2) looking like the most talented 3-year-old in a starless race and Street Sense (4-1) the solid horse to beat. I'm less sold on the other two horses in single-digit odds, Nobiz Like Shobiz Nobiz Like Shobiz (born January 29, 2004) is an American Thoroughbred racehorse, who during his three-year-old season was considered a top contender for the 2007 U.S. Triple Crown series of races. (8-1) because he hasn't gotten faster through the months and Circular Quay (8-1) because he missed his 1 1/8-mile prep for the 1(bul)-mile Derby. So who can finish close-up at a price? Scat Daddy (10-1): Speed figures say he isn't fast enough to win, but he alone has these five frequent characteristics of Derby winners -- he won at 1mile-plus at age 2, raced more than twice at 3, has multiple graded-stakes wins, won his major prep, and has won from on and off the lead. Hard Spun (15-1): The once-beaten colt with shades of Smarty Jones (Pennsylvania-bred) and Barbaro (Delaware Park-debuted) can push the lead but doesn't need it and looks as well-suited at Scat Daddy to the likely wet track Saturday. Tiago (15-1): Giacomo's half-brother can pick up the pieces with the finishing kick that won the Santa Anita Derby The Santa Anita Derby is an American Grade 1 thoroughbred horse race for three-year-olds run each April at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California and carries a purse of $750,000. . The California race hasn't received much respect. But going by the speed figures of the runners-up, it looks like the deepest major prep. Great Hunter (15-1): Doug O'Neill's stronger horse is hard to judge off his close fifth in the weirdly run Blue Grass Stakes The Blue Grass Stakes, currently sponsored by the Toyota Motor Corporation, is an American Grade 1 horse race for 3-year-old Thoroughbreds held annually in mid April at Keeneland Racecourse in Lexington, Kentucky. , in which he may or may not have been gaining when he was impeded in the stretch. The outside post shouldn't kill him. He'll drop back anyway. Sam P. (20-1): The second horse out of the Santa Anita Derby is perfect for our purposes -- he's been finishing in trifectas and superfectas without winning all season. Start with Curlin. If this were any other race, you'd bet on an undefeated horse to defy his inexperience. And even if the Derby isn't any other race, the innocent-until-proven-guilty approach to handicapping applies. If I were putting up to $100into the Kentucky Derby, I'd bet $1 superfecta combinations needing Curlin (No. 2) to win; Street Sense (7) to finish second, third or fourth; and any two of Hard Spun (8), Sam P. (13), Scat Daddy (14), Tiago (15) and Great Hunter (20) to take the other spots in the top four. It multiples out to 90 combinations, a $90 investment. Since the Derby superfecta began in 1996, the smallest payoff in a race of 14 horses or more was the $1,635 when 2-1 favorite Fusaichi Pegasus won in 2000. Settle for that. CAPTION(S): box Box: OUT OF THE GATE - Kevin Modesti |
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