MORE GOOD TIMES SEEN; ROBUST, IF SLOWER YEAR PREDICTED BY NEW FORECAST.

Byline: Cecilia Chan Daily News Staff Writer

More jobs, bigger paychecks and greater spending are expected as Ventura County heads into another robust year, although it could clip along at a slightly slower pace, a new economic forecast predicts.

The county's job market has rebounded from the early '90s recession like no other in the state, economist Mark Schniepp said Thursday at the sixth annual Ventura County Economic Forecast Seminar. He expects 1999 to remain solid in employment, income, and residential and tourist spending even as the economy could experience fallout from the nationwide slowdown.

``It's going to be a slowdown in employment and income growth and probably consumer spending, but for the most part it's going to be another good, solid year,'' said Schniepp, director of the University of California, Santa Barbara, Economic Forecast Project.

``And barring any cataclysmic or apocalyptic kinds of episodes within the stock market or because of the approaching Y2K, look for job growth to still be solid, companies expanding, real estate to be essentially fully utilized and things to be tight again in 1999,'' he said.

Hundreds of listeners, including business leaders from across the county, attended that annual conference at the Marriott at River Ridge in Oxnard.

Despite the healthy growth of the county's economy, the latest survey of 120 firms indicates a growing concern with the business climate, worries stemming from changes in the stock market and the looming Y2K computer problem.

The survey showed only 56 percent of the respondents believe they are better off today than a year ago. Those who indicated they were worse off rose from 4 percent to 12 percent.

Major factors that contributed to a robust economy for Ventura County include unprecedented stock market returns and the ``steady expansion of manufacturing- and service-providing industries,'' according to Schniepp.

``No other county in California of any size came close to Ventura County, in that all jobs that were lost in the recession were made up,'' he said.

And with 8,475 new non-farm jobs created in the county last year and a tight labor market due to fewer people born between 1965-76, the average salary per worker is at an all-time high.

Workers earned an average salary of $26,722, and that is expected to rise over the next several years, according to the report.

The report also states the county is creating a higher share of above-average paying jobs. Most of the new jobs that will be created in the county will be in business services, education and health care.

Last year's events that spilled into this year include:

New commercial and industrial investment increased 46 percent in the county last year, an increase of between $65 million and $68 million in Simi Valley. The vacancy rate, however, remains low.

Housing starts increased 37 percent last year from the prior year. A third of the homes permitted last year were in Simi Valley. Thousand Oaks, Oxnard and Camarillo were other areas of principal residential building.

Retail sales jumped 6.1 percent last year mostly because of consumer spending in Camarillo, Thousand Oaks and Ventura. Retail sales in Thousand Oaks are projected to climb at a 3 percent to 4 percent rate annually for the next several years and level off around 2005.

The median selling price for a single-family home increased 7.3 percent - in Simi Valley it was 14 percent. Resales jumped 24 percent and new home sales increased 8.4 percent. Housing continues to remain tight, fueled by people coming to the county for jobs.

At Port Hueneme, one of the top ports in the nation for automobile imports, passenger car imports jumped 20 percent in fiscal year 1998 and continued to be high for the first six months of fiscal year 1999. Banana imports also jumped 21 percent this year to an all-time record level.

CAPTION(S):

2 Charts

CHART: (1--Ran in Simi and Conejo Editions only) AVERAGE INCOMES

(2) (Ran in Conejo Edition only) ECONOMIC PERCEPTIONS