MORE BAD NEWS AT THE PUMP ANGELENOS PREPARE FOR WORST AS KEY ALASKA PIPELINE SHUT.

Byline: BRAD A. GREENBERG Staff Writer

Oil giant BP indefinitely shut down a crucial Alaskan pipeline Monday, sending crude oil prices soaring more than $2 a barrel and causing widespread concern about more record-high gas prices.

The disruption in supply could last for months although President George W. Bush opened the door to releasing the government's emergency supplies. California, which gets about one-fifth of its gasoline from Alaska, could feel the impact at the pump where prices are already among the nation's highest.

``That's why we are here filling up before it goes up 10 cents,'' Tony Gutierrez said at a Woodland Hills Chevron on Monday afternoon.

In the wake of $3-a-gallon gas, the UCLA radiology resident and his wife have made an effort to find the cheapest gas stations and to drive their Honda Civic more than their V-6 Accord. Gutierrez expects pump prices to get worse before they fall.

``It might not be a bad thing,'' he said. ``It might push people to drive more fuel-efficient cars.''

BP said it had discovered corrosion so severe that it will have to replace 16 miles of pipeline at the huge Prudhoe Bay oil field -- work that could shut down the nation's single- biggest source of domestic crude for months.

The pipeline closure will reduce the domestic harvesting of oil by 400,000 barrels per day -- about 8 percent of American production. That could spell higher fuel prices for already pump-weary Americans.

California and the Northwest, which rely more heavily on Alaskan crude than do other states, can expect to bear the brunt, said Denton Cinquegrana, director of the Oil Price Information Service.

But analysts remained uncertain about how pronounced the effect would be. It could shoot prices per gallon up 20 cents or it might not make a dent.

The effect hadn't set in Monday in Los Angeles County, where the average price for a gallon of unleaded fuel was $3.226 -- down a third of a cent from Sunday and 3.3 cents from a month ago.

Susanne Garfield, spokeswoman for the California Energy Commission, said state prices shouldn't rise directly because of a supply shortage but could be affected by a tightening in the world crude market. The state gets less than 20 percent of its petroleum -- about 290,000 barrels a day -- from the North Slope region of Alaska, and only a portion of that through the heavily corroded BP pipeline.

Angelenos weren't so optimistic.

``If you are going to make that choice to drive, you are going to be subject to whatever the gas prices are. If it's $5 a gallon or $10 a gallon, that's what you'll have to pay,'' said Tony Nemitz, who commutes from Simi Valley to his mortgage lending job in Woodland Hills.

Nikeia McCaa, who feels like a slave to her gas-guzzling sport utility vehicle, could only afford 3.78 gallons -- $12.03.

``I have to budget myself,'' said the 29-year-old mother of two. ``And I don't get paid until the 10th.''

It could take days -- if not weeks -- for pump prices to adjust to any crude oil shortages.

``In the old days, this wouldn't have had an impact for 90 days because that is approximately how long it takes the crude to get into the market. But now, because of the traders and the stock speculators, they might push up that price in just a few days,'' said Andre van der Valk, who owns several gas stations in the San Fernando Valley and Ventura County and is president of AuTO-Ca, a 1,200-member association of service stations.

Nationally, oil reserves are about 9 percent above the five-year average.

``That could help buffer things,'' said Ron Planting, an economist for the American Petroleum Institute, an industry lobbyist.

Also, Bush expressed a willingness to release emergency reserves.

The start of school, only weeks away, could also stem price increases. September and October are historically a shoulder period between peak oil use when prices recede.

But, on the other hand, the Gulf Coast is bracing for a nasty hurricane season. In the wake of Hurricane Katrina last September, the production of 1.5 million barrels per day was halted and fuel prices surged.

``Every time we put out fires somewhere, another fire comes in ... The oil market is so jittery, there are always things waiting to push prices higher,'' said Fadel Gheit, an oil analyst for Oppenheimer and Co.

Staff Writer Harrison Sheppard in Sacramento contributed to this report.

brad.greenberg(at)dailynews.com

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CAPTION(S):

photo, map

Photo:

Bob Newton uses ultrasound to scan a section of pipe looking for weak spots along an oil transit pipeline that leaked up to 267,000 gallons of oil in March at the Prudhoe Bay oil field on Alaska's North Slope.

Al Grillo/Associated Press

Map:

Prudhoe Bay oil field

SOURCES: ESRI 

Associated Press