MEDIAN PRICE FOR VALLEY HOME DROPS.Byline: GREGORY J. WILCOX Wilcox may refer to: Place names in the United States
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It had to happen sometime. The median price of a San Fernando Valley San Fernando Valley Valley, southern California, U.S. Northwest of central Los Angeles, the valley is bounded by the San Gabriel, Santa Susana, and Santa Monica mountains and the Simi Hills. house had to fall. Last month it finally did, by just less than 1 percent. And, just maybe, November November: see month. brought us a glimpse of what the residential real estate landscape is going to look like for months to come. But you probably shouldn't should·n't Contraction of should not. shouldn't should not shouldn't should get too giddy thinking prices are going to collapse. Those inside and outside the industry agree that prices are leveling out, which means the Valley will remain a very expensive market. And the median price, the point at which half the units cost more and half less, will remain closer to $600,000 than $500,000. ``I would be shocked if prices dip below the $500,000 level. That would take a major turn in the economy, and that's just not there,'' said Jim Link, executive vice president of the Van Nuys-based Southland south·land or South·land n. A region in the south of a country or an area. south  land·er n.Noun 1. Regional Association of Realtors. Prices have been on a 10-year tear. In February 1997, the median price fell an annual 13.9 percent to $155,000. The next month it rose 1.6 percent to $160,000. It increased annually for 116 months, gaining 283.9 percent in that time span. And this certainly is not the early 1990s again, a period of prolonged pro·long tr.v. pro·longed, pro·long·ing, pro·longs 1. To lengthen in duration; protract. 2. To lengthen in extent. price declines. The slide began in earnest ear·nest 1 adj. 1. Marked by or showing deep sincerity or seriousness: an earnest gesture of goodwill. 2. Of an important or weighty nature; grave. See Synonyms at serious. in April 1992 when the median fell an annual 8.3 percent to $220,000. It continued falling annually for 45 months. During that last boom and bust In economics, the term boom and bust refers to the movement of an economy through economic cycles. The Boom-Bust economic cycle According to most economists, an economic boom is typically characterized by an increased level of economic output (GDP), a corresponding period, the median price fell from a high of $245,000 to a low of $155,000. From the low point, April 1997, it took 43 months to regain a record level, finally hitting $255,000 in August 2000. Then prices really heated up. That record fell in nine months, hitting $260,000 in May 2001. The record fell the next three months, too. And the median price did not stay in one price neighborhood for long, either. It crossed into $300,000 in May 2002 and moved to $400,000 in August of the next year. In June 2004, it broke through $500,000 and a year later it was at $600,000. And it's been bouncing around that level ever since then even as sales have plunged for months. Most of the Valley buyers are still shopping in the same price range this year as last year. In October, the most current numbers available, 367 sales were in the $450,000 to $600,000 range. A year ago, there were 462 sales at this level. At the next step up -- $600,000 to $800,000 -- there were 236 sales this year and 381 last year. ``We're kind of right at the price point now that we're going to have to get used to,'' said John Karevoll, an analyst at DataQuick Information Systems, a market tracker. He's neither a cheerleader nor a market basher The term basher may refer to the following:
``We're way ahead of the game. It just depends on how much of the gains we made in the past four years we get to keep. Is it 95 percent, 90 percent or all of it? It's still pretty sweet.'' greg.wilcox(at)dailynews.com (818) 713-3743 |
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