MAXED-OUT CREDIT MAY SLOW SALES.

Byline: Patricia Lamiell Associated Press 

To hear many Wall Street economists tell it, the American economy is in great shape - a slam-dunk for strong holiday sales and profits for retailers.

But when consumers draw up their holiday shopping lists, many will ignore economists' pronouncements about gains in employment, wages, net wealth, and even consumer confidence.

These economic statistics may be flashing a big green light, but around the kitchen table, many families are seeing yellow, if not red.

They've already run up big balances on their credit cards, and they don't want to, or can't, charge any more.

Consumers may have a surprise in store for retailers and economists who are counting on Americans to shop 'til they drop.

``We had better have a good Christmas this year,'' said Mark Vitner, an economist at First Union Corp. in Charlotte, N.C. ``The overall level of retail inventories is still fairly substantial.''

If holiday spending falls short of expectations, ``we will have some overhang going into 1997, which will lead to production cuts,'' he said.

Such entreaties fall on deaf ears in some households.

Norma Lowe of Phoenix is nearly finished paying off $30,000 in credit card debt, including $3,000 for a wide-screen television purchased for her parents for Christmas 1990.

The past four years, the 30-year-old clerk at the Arizona State Senate has bought fewer and much less expensive gifts, and she has wrapped up some from sales throughout the year. She makes things at home for less than $5.

``Sometimes you get what you can afford, even if it's not exactly what you want,'' Lowe said. Effort to pay off her debt has really changed her, she said.

Her lifestyle adjustment - and that of millions of other consumers like her - is not necessarily reflected in the ebullient statistics churned out by the government and private economists.

Unemployment is low at 5.1 percent. Job creation is strong, although some argue that the new jobs are too low-paying to give the economy much of a boost. Take-home pay, after subtracting for inflation, is up.

Consumers' confidence, viewed by many as a crucial measurement of their propensity to spend, hit a five-year high in August and has declined very little since then.

Perhaps most important to high-end retailers, household net worth is up substantially, boosted primarily by strong gains in the stock market for the second year running.

So consumers are wealthier, and more of them believe their jobs are secure. But that wealth and optimism might not produce more spending at the stores.

``If you were simply looking at the economic fundamentals, you somehow would think consumer spending would be stronger than it is,'' said Sandra Shaber, consumer economist at the Wefa Group, an economic think tank in Eddystone, Pa.

The past few months, consumer spending has not kept pace with income gains. It rose a stingy 0.6 percent in the third quarter, as shoppers took a breather after pounding it sharply higher in the second and first quarters.

``I thought we may be looking at the best Christmas in three or four years,'' said Raymond Worseck, chief economist for A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis.

``And then all of the sudden, in the last three to four weeks, I've seen rather soft numbers coming out.''

One reason spending is down is that consumers are not charging as much as they used to. After driving their monthly debt-service payments on credit cards up to an unprecedented 11 percent of take-home pay, shoppers trimmed their credit-card use in September for the first time in three years.

Some industry watchers believe that trend will continue as households clean up their balance sheets.

In addition, credit card issuers, concerned about rising delinquencies and consumer bankruptcies, have become stingier in handing out plastic. That is intended to minimize losses, but it could also clip sales growth.

That could disappoint department stores selling everything from lingerie to snow blowers and already cutting prices to get people through their doors.