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MARKETS HAIL MILD ACTION ON INTEREST RATES; CENTRAL BANK SAYS IT WILL STAND PAT; STOCKS, BONDS SURGE.



Byline: Kimberly Blanton The Boston Globe

The Federal Reserve Board raised interest rates by a quarter-percentage point Wednesday, setting off rallies in the stock and bond markets with a surprise announcement that no further rate increases are planned in the near future.

The boost in the federal funds rate Federal Funds Rate

The interest rate at which a depository institution lends immediately available funds (balances at the Federal Reserve) to another depository institution overnight.
, from 4.75 percent to 5 percent, was a widely anticipated move to slow down the economy and to head off inflation by causing increases in interest rates on everything from credit cards to business loans. But the stock market, reacting with a mixture of relief and euphoria, soared 200 points within minutes after the Fed confirmed investors' expectations and then dropped its ``bias'' toward more rate hikes over the next few months. At the end of the day, the Dow Jones industrial average Dow Jones Industrial Average

The best known U.S. index of stocks. A price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks, primarily industrials including stocks that trade on the New York Stock Exchange.
 was up 155.45 points, closing at 10,907.80.

As recently as two weeks ago, Fed chairman Alan Greenspan Alan Greenspan

Dr. Greenspan is Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Dr. Greenspan also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's principal monetary policymaking body.
 expressed concern that the strong U.S. economy - sailing along in the second-longest boom in history - was in danger of triggering inflation in wages and prices. The Federal Open Market Committee, headed by Greenspan, explained its first rate hike in two years in a written statement. Sharp increases in U.S. workers' productivity have, for now, eased concerns about a tight labor market labor market A place where labor is exchanged for wages; an LM is defined by geography, education and technical expertise, occupation, licensure or certification requirements, and job experience , the committee said, and have kept a lid on inflation.

Members cautioned, however, that they remain ``especially alert to the emergence, or potential emergence, of inflationary forces that could undermine economic growth.''

What surprised investors and economists who monitor every Fed move was a decision to withdraw its stance in favor of future rate hikes. At its previous meeting, the committee had announced a bias toward higher rates.

David Jones David Jones is a common name, particularly in Wales, and there have been several well-known individuals with this name. Variations include Dave Jones and Davy Jones. , a Fed watcher for Aubrey Lanston & Co. in New York New York, state, United States
New York, Middle Atlantic state of the United States. It is bordered by Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and the Atlantic Ocean (E), New Jersey and Pennsylvania (S), Lakes Erie and Ontario and the Canadian province of
, said the Fed's neutral stance on rates could jeopardize its ability to fight inflation. ``It was curious the Fed pulled back,'' Jones said. ``It means they're going to sit on the sidelines On the sidelines

An investor who decides not to invest due to market uncertainty.


on the sidelines

Of or relating to investors who, having assessed the market, have decided to avoid committing their funds.
 a while, but the danger is this could raise the possibly the economy could overheat o·ver·heat  
v. o·ver·heat·ed, o·ver·heat·ing, o·ver·heats

v.tr.
1. To heat too much.

2. To cause to become excited, agitated, or overstimulated.

v.intr.
.''

Despite the Fed's stated goal of heading off inflation, economists predicted such a gentle action would have only minimal impact on the economy and on consumer confidence, which is nearing levels not seen since the 1960s.

Banks foresee no slowing

Bankers from Connecticut to California said Wednesday that small businesses, the engines of economic growth, will continue to borrow at ``incredibly high'' levels despite the slightly higher rates.

The Fed typically boosts the federal funds rate - the rate at which commercial banks charge each other for overnight loans - in an attempt to curb spending by consumers and businesses, which must borrow to invest in new plant and equipment. Banks, in turn, raise the rates charged to their best customers - the prime rate. Fleet Financial Group, New England's largest commercial banking company, and other major banks immediately hiked their prime lending rates The lowest rate of interest that a financial institution, such as a bank, charges its best customers, usually large corporations, for short-term unsecured loans.

The prime lending rate is an economic indicator and is often used as a measuring point for adjusting interest
 to 8 percent. Credit card interest, home mortgages and other rates typically follow suit.

Economists speculated that the committee acted cautiously because the bond market has done much of its work for it. Since the beginning of this year, yields on the benchmark 30-year U.S. Treasury U.S. Treasury

Created in 1798, the United States Department of the Treasury is the government (Cabinet) department responsible for issuing all Treasury bonds, notes and bills. Some of the government branches operating under the U.S. Treasury umbrella include the IRS, U.S.
 bond have marched higher, rising from about 5.12 percent to a current range of 6 percent.

Higher mortgage rates, for example, were blamed for a recent dampening in home sales.

The bond market might have overreacted to anticipated Fed moves. Bonds rallied Wednesday, restoring some losses in their prices during the first half of the year. The 30-year Treasury bond's yield dropped Wednesday by almost 10 basis points to 5.96 percent; that is the first time it has closed below 6 percent since June 18. (Bond yields move in the opposite direction of prices.)

Reasons for optimism

Wednesday's rate increase was a first move to unwind three consecutive rate dips enacted last year - in September, October, and November - amid what the Fed Wednesday described as a ``significant seizing-up'' of U.S. and global financial markets triggered by collapsing currencies that cascaded from Asia to Russia and threatened South America South America, fourth largest continent (1991 est. pop. 299,150,000), c.6,880,000 sq mi (17,819,000 sq km), the southern of the two continents of the Western Hemisphere. .

Memories of the dramatic financial crises have been virtually erased by news that Japan's economy might be in a long-hoped-for recovery and that fragile Southeast Asian economies are also beginning to climb out of their rut.

The Fed, lauded for the remarkable feat of helping to rescue a troubled world economy, has turned its attention to a U.S. economy that is charging ahead - perhaps too quickly - in reaction to last year's rate decreases.

Greenspan faces a tricky task in navigating interest-rate policy through an economy that is expanding at a breakneck break·neck  
adj.
1. Dangerously fast: a breakneck pace.

2. Likely to cause an accident: a breakneck curve.
 pace with virtually no signs of inflation, said William Cheney, economist for John Hancock Mutual Life Insurance Co. in Boston.

The Fed's decision to withdraw its bias toward further tightening is tantamount to ``Alan Greenspan admitting he's not God, and he doesn't know what he's going to do next,'' Cheney said. Future Fed decisions ``depend on what happens.''

More growth predicted

Indeed, economists said most indicators still point to a continued boom. Consumer confidence in June scored its eighth consecutive monthly gain, corporate profits are up, and inflation remains remarkably low. The index of leading indicators The Index of Leading Indicators is an American economic index intended to estimate future economic activity. It is calculated by The Conference Board, a non-governmental organization, which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key variables. , which attempts to forecast future economic growth, gained 0.3 percent in May after decreasing slightly in April, the Conference Board said Wednesday.

But with unemployment rates at 30-year lows, the Federal Reserve believes there is a danger wages could go higher and spark inflation if workers' productivity gains taper off Verb 1. taper off - end weakly; "The music just petered out--there was no proper ending"
fizzle, fizzle out, peter out

discontinue - come to or be at an end; "the support from our sponsoring agency will discontinue after March 31"

2.
. Productivity has risen more than 2 percent in the past year.

CAPTION(S):

Chart

Chart: INTEREST RATES

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate, a key short-term interest rate, by 0.25 percentage point Wednesday. Here is a look at the federal funds rate, the discount rate and the prime rate since 1990.

SOURCE: AP research

Associated Press Associated Press: see news agency.
Associated Press (AP)

Cooperative news agency, the oldest and largest in the U.S. and long the largest in the world.
 
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Publication:Daily News (Los Angeles, CA)
Article Type:Statistical Data Included
Date:Jul 1, 1999
Words:980
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