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MARKET STAMPEDES TOWARD RECORD.


Byline: Tom Walker Cox News Service

The longest bull market in U.S. history starts its 10th year today on a high note after the Nasdaq technology index set a new record.

Strategists see no reason to think the fundamental economic and market forces that started lifting stocks 3,287 days ago will end anytime soon.

But the very length of the bull market and the related economic expansion - also approaching a record - are constant concerns to analysts who concede con·cede  
v. con·ced·ed, con·ced·ing, con·cedes

v.tr.
1. To acknowledge, often reluctantly, as being true, just, or proper; admit. See Synonyms at acknowledge.

2.
 that nothing like this has ever happened before.

The benchmark Dow Jones industrial average Dow Jones Industrial Average

The best known U.S. index of stocks. A price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks, primarily industrials including stocks that trade on the New York Stock Exchange.
 has risen 350 percent since Oct. 11, 1990, the bottom of the last bear market on Wall Street - defined as a drop of 20 percent or more in major indexes.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq's 796 percent rise over the same periods to Monday's record of 2,915.95 supports the ``new paradigm'' argument - the concept that advanced technology has fueled the economic boom that made the bull market possible.

``The thing that has driven the economy is the huge advance in technology, especially in the last five years, including the adoption of the Internet Internet

Publicly accessible computer network connecting many smaller networks from around the world. It grew out of a U.S. Defense Department program called ARPANET (Advanced Research Projects Agency Network), established in 1969 with connections between computers at the
 to restructure business. The economy can grow without generating inflation,'' said Fred C. Allvine, director of Georgia Tech's Stock Market Project.

At the same time, Allvine's long-term stock market model posts a reading of 19.9 on a 100-point scale, where 50 is a buy signal and 20 a sell. This is the same model that has accurately produced sell signals six times in the last two decades.

The danger, according to according to
prep.
1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians.

2. In keeping with: according to instructions.

3.
 Allvine, is that some ``hiccup'' will occur that would do to the stock market what sand does to the gears of a smoothly running machine.

``One negative scenario is that wage rates continue to go up and the Fed gets nervous,'' said Allvine. ``If wages accelerate, the Fed will act, and that would cause people to have second thoughts about the economy.''

Right now, however, most mainstream analysts see little reason to think inflation will get bad enough to frighten fright·en  
v. fright·ened, fright·en·ing, fright·ens

v.tr.
1. To fill with fear; alarm.

2.
 the Fed.

The Fed declined on Oct. 5 to raise interest rates a third time this year, adopting instead a tepid tep·id  
adj.
1. Moderately warm; lukewarm.

2. Lacking in emotional warmth or enthusiasm; halfhearted: "the tepid conservatism of the fifties" Irving Howe.
 ``bias'' toward further tightening if warranted.

While investors are still skittish skit·tish  
adj.
1. Moving quickly and lightly; lively.

2. Restlessly active or nervous; restive.

3. Undependably variable; mercurial or fickle.

4. Shy; bashful.
 as a result of the recent correction, the Dow has already recovered almost half the 9.8 percent loss it suffered in the month after its Aug. 25 high.

The Nasdaq composite The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index of all of the common stocks and similar securities (e.g. ADRs, tracking stocks, limited partnership interests) listed on the NASDAQ stock market, meaning that it has over 3,000 components. It is highly followed in the U.S. , which suffered a bigger loss of 13 percent in July and August, has since rallied 17 percent thanks to recovery in the technology sector.

What seems to be happening, strategists say, is not a flight of investors from the market but a rotation within the market - especially in the face of upbeat earnings forecasts for the third quarter.

``All the good news and all of the bad news is wrapped up in a single word, rotation,'' Prudential Prudential is the name of two different companies and buildings named after them:

Companies:
  • Prudential plc is a United Kingdom-based financial services company.
  • Prudential Financial, Inc.
 Securities technical analyst Ralph Acampora said Monday. ``Former leaders are suffering some defections while recent laggards are enjoying renewed investor interest.''
COPYRIGHT 1999 Daily News
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 1999, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

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Title Annotation:Business
Publication:Daily News (Los Angeles, CA)
Article Type:Statistical Data Included
Date:Oct 12, 1999
Words:501
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