MARKET RESEARCH.

E-Commerce Named Top Future Investment By User Organizations, Service Bureaus

Hardly a concern for most organizations five years ago, e-commerce is now the top future investment for user companies and service bureaus/consultants, according to findings of a new survey by Xplor International, an electronic document systems association. In 1995, the same survey reported that client/server systems were the top future investment for organizations. Xplor's 1999 Technology Directions Survey, released last week, surveyed both user companies and service bureaus/consultants that are members of Xplor, providing a benchmark for organizations to compare their perceptions of the industry against those of other strategic document specialists. Xplor represents more than 5,000 members at more than 2,000 companies that develop and use the products and services making up the $125 billion US document systems industry. Following e-commerce, the survey indicates telecom infrastructure, knowledge management, LANs/WANs/office systems, and mainframe/centralized computers as the most important future investments for Xplor user member companies. In comparison, Xplor user members and service bureaus in 1995 reported that client/server systems, LANs, imaging systems, and mainframe computers were the top future investments.

According to Keith Davidson, president of Xplor, "It's no surprise to find that e-commerce is the top investment concern for today's organization. The Internet has essentially transformed the way we conduct business, bringing a new model for an organization's document strategy, as well as a new model for conducting business transactions with customers."

The survey found that the top current investments for user companies include the telecommunications infrastructure, LANs/WANs/office systems, mainframe/centralized computers, and e-commerce. The top current investments for service bureaus include e-commerce, telecommunications infrastructure, monochrome centralized printers, and imaging systems.

One of the many noteworthy findings from the study includes trends for the future of printing and mailing. Thirty-eight percent of Xplor user member companies indicate the Internet will decrease printing, while another 38 percent believe the Internet will increase printing. Twenty-four percent feel there will be no affect on printing. However, 31 percent of Xplor user member companies say printing is seen as a necessary evil and that their companies tend to spend as little as possible on output technology. According to the survey, mailing will be more significantly impacted by the Internet and related technologies. Fifty-eight percent of Xplor user members surveyed said the Internet in general would decrease mailing. Also, 64 percent of Xplor user members feel e-mail will decrease traditional mailing volumes and 58 percent feel that e-commerce will cause a decrease. Other key survey findings:

* Thirty-one percent of Xplor user member companies say all efforts are complete in regard to Year 2000 hardware fixes. Sixty-eight percent report their efforts are underway or on target, while only one percent say efforts are underway but behind schedule.

* Twenty-six percent of Xplor user member companies say that Year 2000 software fixes are complete, while 72 percent say efforts are underway or on target. Two percent say efforts are underway but behind schedule.

* Ninety percent of Xplor user member companies are using a web site to describe products and services and 32 percent are using a web site with order-taking capability.

* Seventy-two percent of Xplor service bureaus are using their web site to describe products and services and 15 percent are using it with order-taking capability.

* Forty-nine percent of Xplor user member companies agree that the inability to automate some post-processing steps makes it difficult for print on demand to meet its promise.

* Saving money is one of the top three motives for deploying technology for 73 percent of Xplor user members. Retaining customers ranks second and increasing revenue by selling additional services to existing customers round out the top three.

* "If operating costs were lower, we would print more color," say 49 percent of Xplor member users. Forty percent say color printers are "too slow for production jobs."

Embedded Java Market Is 'Hot And Strong,' Says VDC Study

A new study by Venture Development Corp. (VDC) shows the number of embedded devices shipping with Java VMS increasing from 298,000 in 1999 to 24.3 million in 2003, with the number of developer seats growing from 1,459 to 8,406. Although interest in evaluating Java has been strong, actual Java products have been slow to hit the market. But VDC says the end of 1999 and the year of 2000 will see Java products debut in several vertical markets. Adoption of Java is expected to increase significantly within the next 18 months. Java will experience its most significant success in consumer electronics and office automation, two vertical markets in which Internet connectivity and networking will be important product features. In consumer electronics, set-top boxes and mobile phones will be the leaders. Automotive multimedia, home networking and dedicated Internet devices also will gradually see Java infiltration.

Java will also find adoption in industrial and retail automation. In both of these vertical markets, the prevalence of Windows in the IT structures of corporations will encourage the use of embedded devices which may run a Java VM inside a browser on top of Windows CE, NT or 9x.

Increase in device complexity and functionality are supported in large part by the software, which VDC says is ideally suited to implement applications with graphical user interfaces (GUIs), Internet access and networking. Decreasing price of memory and microprocessor power also puts the computing resources necessary for Java into the range of many vertical markets, says VDC.

Java is expected to help productivity in several ways, the study notes. Cross platform portability allows ESMs to develop products faster because they can reuse software across different hardware platforms. It may allow them to capitalize on third party software. A large pool of Java developers will be available to ESMs.

While concerns about Java's performance and footprint are the major reasons for hesitating in adopting Java, VDC says these two attributes are mostly seen as "surmountable obstacles." But real-time and determinacy concerns will bar Java from most hard real-time applications. However, in applications which could use GUIs or Internet accessibility, Java is still a candidate for applications with real time concerns in the form of a hybrid native-Java combination.

ESMs have mixed reactions to the third party software model because they run the risk of seeing customer loyalty transferring to the software rather than the hardware. The embedded world could follow the PC model and see the commoditization of embedded hardware. "Although Java may not be the rain maker for OS vendors, it has become necessary to offer the Java option to capitalize on the growth markets," concludes the report.