Looking into the cystal ball for 2003.Here are some predictive musings for 2003: * In 2003 we will discover that there is no bubble in housing. Trying to apply what happened in the new Internet See Web 2.0 and Internet2. Services industry to the established real estate industry created the "bubble" argument. It is like looking to the immediate past and trying to predict the immediate future. The glasses don't fit this time. * A long-term trend that started in 1980 with people moving back to the city will continue. Manhattan will continue to have more people moving in than moving out and therefore the demand for real estate will experience sustained growth This trend will apply not only to Manhattan but also to Brooklyn, Staten Island Staten Island (1990 pop. 378,977), 59 sq mi (160 sq km), SE N.Y., in New York Bay, SW of Manhattan, forming Richmond co. of New York state and the borough of Staten Island of New York City. , Queens and the Bronx. Construction activity will diminish, as the lack of available parcels for development will continue to limit the number of units being built. New construction will either be subsidized sub·si·dize tr.v. sub·si·dized, sub·si·diz·ing, sub·si·diz·es 1. To assist or support with a subsidy. 2. To secure the assistance of by granting a subsidy. or very high end. * Demand for high-end apartments will be sluggish but will recover. somewhat from the 2001 and 2002 levels. Price increases at the top end of the market will be sparse sparse - A sparse matrix (or vector, or array) is one in which most of the elements are zero. If storage space is more important than access speed, it may be preferable to store a sparse matrix as a list of (index, value) pairs or use some kind of hash scheme or associative memory. . The market under $1 million will continue to be strong and will be fueled by many factors: (a) strong demand from aging baby boomers See generation X. in their 50's who want a 2-3 bedroom apartment in the city for under $1 million, (2) international demand as the dollar falls and units are more affordable for foreigners Foreigners alienage the condition of being an alien. androlepsy Law. the seizure of foreign subjects to enforce a claim for justice or other right against their nation. gypsyologist, gipsyologist Rare. in their currency, (3) immigrant demand will be strong, particularly in the outer boroughs, as low interest rates combined with high savings rates Savings rate Personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income. (for this group) will lead to more purchases. * The rental market will pick up as rentals are absorbed, but there will be scant rise in greatly reduced rental prices. Too few people chasing too many units will continue and keep prices down, but rental prices have bottomed out and will start inching up later in the year. * More international demand: New York City New York City: see New York, city. New York City City (pop., 2000: 8,008,278), southeastern New York, at the mouth of the Hudson River. The largest city in the U.S. continues to be one of the most important international and inexpensive capitals of the world. The fall of the dollar in 2003 will make it even more affordable for foreigners and it will continue to attract people from all over the world. Expect solid demand from foreigners, despite Sept. 11. * A rising tide Noun 1. rising tide - the occurrence of incoming water (between a low tide and the following high tide); "a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune" -Shakespeare flood tide, flood will lift all boats: All of New York City is attractive today and what is prime and not prime will continue to be obscured as people from every walk of life continue developing "marginal" neighborhoods and turning them into "in" neighborhoods. There will be no let up in this trend. * The Downtown residential market will experience the least amount of activity due to the Internet bust fall out. Downtown will come back, but it will do so only after another industry replaces the Internet industry. That won't happen in 2003. Wait for 2004, which makes 2003 a great year to buy Downtown. * Mold will be a major residential real estate news item in 2003: The extent of the mold problem will be on everyone's lips in 2003. By 2004, we will have concluded that a couple of strong espressos cure mold, and we will be onto another problem! |
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