Long-term career trends to watch. (In the Trenches).

We've been surfing, thinking, interviewing, and generally researching workplace trends. We've found that the hottest job market in 50 years has resulted in some interesting fallout. People who were happily employed a year ago are succumbing to the-grass-is-greener syndrome or are victims of dot.com envy. People who believed themselves fairly, if not lavishly, paid just a few months ago are crying foul over what newer hires are being paid. People who thought of themselves as committed to a role or a career are losing their conviction and drifting into dead ends as they try to pick a next direction.

Here are some emerging, long-term trends that we've identified. Factor these into your thinking, especially when thinking about retaining younger workers, including MDs.

1. A series of short-term careers will become the norm

Today's new hire, regardless of age, makes no firm commitment as to how long he'll stay in a job or with a company. When was the last time you heard someone talk about his 20-year career as a whatever? Those days are gone for now. (Never say forever.) Moving from job to job is the rule, not the exception. Most employers have learned to not even ask about long-term plans since the answer will disappoint. The only difference between hiring a 50-something and a 20-something is that the 50-something will intimate he is signing on forever while the 20-something will say, "This looks like a good first (or immediate) opportunity." There will be no hint of long-term commitment.

Thank the 20-somethings for their contribution to the phenomenon. Even five years ago health insurance topped the short list for new hires. Today, due to the demand, insurance companies are offering individual, portable health insurance to people under 35 who can pass physicals. Many policies have only a $200 deductible and offer a free choice of providers--all for $59 a month. That's Generation X's big victory in shaping the workplace to fit itself. With portable health insurance, workers are free to move when, if, and as often as they like. Ditto the portable pension plan, a.k.a. the 401k. Building wealth is an ongoing pursuit not related to one particular employer.

Lawyers, physicians, teachers, and especially managers in every kind of business are raising a non-stop chorus of "Is that all there is?" At no time in the past have so many considered their career choices as stages, not permanent commitments. Physicians especially see others moving up or around, not only without a penalty but often reaping rewards in the process. A lawyer who feels like a workhorse at her firm longs to be a racehorse somewhere else. She moves and gains fulfillment that trumps job security every time.

Here's another reason for the serial career: Today's college graduate may have a $40,000 debt if he graduated from a public university or $70,000 if he graduated from a private school. If he goes to graduate school, add $100,000. So, he is likely to put off graduate school for three to five years and accept a job in the very lucrative financial industry. This will pay off his debt and may even yield a nest egg for graduate school. Medical and other professional schools can expect a gradually aging set of recruits as medicine (or ministry, law, business, higher education, etc.) becomes a second career.

At the same time, turnover among 40- and 50-somethings will soar. These folks watched young people become millionaires at 24, but they won't be able to stand watching their children, just a few years out of college, get stock options and surpass them financially. Children will hire parents in dot.coms--or their friends will. Many in this age group will opt for early retirement and reinvent themselves within young, small companies, easing the shortage of management talent in the fledgling organizations--unless, of course, there's a recession.

In the next five years virtually every health care organization will formally acknowledge that "at will" employment really means "at this moment. Employees who express loyalty to an organization or expect loyalty from it are rare (and naive). Their numbers won't increase. Smart organizations will delete any notion of forever-aftering from their recruiting pitch. Many traditional companies will be snubbed by the stars until they understand that.

2. Recruiting will evolve

It's already in process. Today, accepting a job offer--even signing an agreement--means "I'll show up for work if I don't get a better offer in the meantime." While employers would like to turn broken promises into an ethical issue, it's a nonstarter. Today's new hire reserves the right to change his mind up to, and including, the day he begins a new job. He reserves the right to use a job offer as a bludgeon to get a counteroffer from his boss or a third party. Recruiting, never a science, has become even more of an art form.

Dot.coms are getting the best and brightest, including MDs and scores of nurses and technicians. Perverse as it may seem, the same bricks and mortar companies that howl when a key employee is snatched by a dot.com want to recruit only people who've had dot.com experience. That won't change. People from failed dot.coms will be more desirable than their peers from bricks and mortar companies. It's not about glamour; it's about flexibility, work ethic, and the determination to get the result. Some recruiters are so convinced that dot.com experience is key that they won't present candidates for senior management jobs without it.

Internet job hunting will dominate as organizations bypass headhunters. Not only does it save on recruiters' fees, it's faster. More importantly, it keeps computer illiterates from applying for management jobs. Those who don't know how to job hunt online will drastically limit can get 20 years of productive labor if they woo, train, accommodate, and reward this group of potentially highly productive employees.

9. Fewer will aspire to management

Many younger physicians see management as a one-way ticket to obsolescence and vulnerability. Why? When today's young adult was growing up she saw a parent--generally a father--laid off, the result of massive downsizings all over the country. Dad had started as an engineer (marketer, etc.), and worked up to manager. He was an easy hit because, having lost his technical edge, he couldn't be deployed back to the ranks. Dad's children have no intention of letting that happen to them. They'll manage the company they own, not someone else's.

What's driving the job market is a declining population and a shortage of workers at all levels. Even if the stock market tanks, the worker shortage won't abate. Ultimately, more workers will continue to have more choices and their sense of independence can only grow. Even a recession won't help much. Employers who want to gain control again will have to wait for a depression.

Marilyn Moats Kennedy is Managing Partner, Career Strategies, Inc., Wilmette, Illinois, and a long-time member of the ACPE faculty She can be reached at 1150 Wilmette Avenue, Wilmette, Illinois 60091, 847/251-1661, via fax at 847/251-5191, and via email at [e-mail].