Long strike wearing down grocery workers.

When Judy Velasquez was locked out from her job as a cashier for Albertsons Inc. in October, she expected to be out of work for two weeks, a month at the most.

She wound up sticking it out for nine weeks, thanks to strike benefits and a $5,000 home equity line. But with little prospect of going back anytime soon, Velasquez was forced to take a job selling lingerie at Victoria's Secret for $7.50 an hour--a pay cut of more than $10 an hour.

Even at that, her new job may not last.

"It's seasonal," said Velasquez, who still walks the picket lines. "They could keep me or let me go, depending on how good I am."

Like many supermarket employees, Velasquez grossly underestimated the length of the strike and lockout. After 12 weeks, many have lost their fight, and as they entered the new year last week with few signs of a resolution, some were taking new jobs to help pay the bills. Others want to leave permanently.

There is no way to gauge how many of the 70,000 union workers have either found new employment or are looking. But interviews with numerous picketers in the past two weeks indicate that the number of those who have given up--or are at least considering it--is sizeable and likely growing.

If so, it could have a devastating effect on a union that has been struggling to maintain a cohesive front in the face of an extended impasse and several recent setbacks.

For one, Albertsons and the two other Chains--Kroger Co., parent of Ralphs, and Safeway Inc., parent of Vons and Pavilions--stopped funding health insurance plans for union members, forcing the United Food and Commercial Workers union to negotiate an extension with providers past Dec. 31.

Additionally, 6,000 Teamsters drivers returned to work at Albertsons and Ralphs warehouses on Dec. 22, a month after agreeing to honor the picket lines at all of the chains' distribution sites. (Another 2,000 Teamsters agreed to continue honoring UFCW picket lines at Vons and Pavilions warehouses.)

More recently, many of the 800 pharmacists who work in the supermarkets said they want to exit the UFCW, which they claim has subordinated their interests to blue collar workers who make up most of the union's membership.

"The union's problem is they walked into this thing without a clear plan for doing more than picketing the stores," said Daniel Mitchell, a UCLA professor of management and public policy. "Members are grumbling."

The setbacks have had an impact on morale.

"I'm frustrated with the union," said Velasquez. "They are not filling us in with all the information from the negotiations that we need to know."

Union officials are concerned about a large exodus, which would weaken their negotiating stance and threaten the union's long-term survival. But conceding too much in negotiations would also weaken the union.

"There's a lot of pressure to come up with a settlement," said Rick Icaza, president of the UFCW's L.A.-based Local 770. "But it can't be one that devastates our health plan and pension."

Union negotiators budged a bit on Dec. 19 when they offered to have their workers pay $30 each per week in health care costs--more than management's offer of $5 per week for singles and $15 for families--in exchange for the removal of other take-back proposals by management.

The offer was designed to pump momentum into the negotiations, but the grocery chains quickly rejected it. Federal mediator Peter Hurtgen then declared a recess in talks until after the first of the year.

"I would have thought this thing would be over by the end of Thanksgiving," said Karen Whiteman, a 26-year Albertsons employee. "I realize now it's not going to be over soon. They're talking about the beginning of February."

Whiteman, an office manager, says she has cleaned out a $4,000 savings account and is now considering short-term work at a nonunion grocery store while she studies to be an accountant. She said she knows of 10 co-workers who have already found alternative jobs and many others who are looking.

"I want to get out of retail and work in a professional environment--not dealing with customers and their complaints," she said. "I just can't believe the company would leave us out here like this--and the union too."

Misled about dispute

Union members remain opposed to the chains' demands that employees accept significant cuts in health care, pension benefits and pay rates. Nevertheless, many are hedging their bets.

Moses Garcia, a Ralphs meat cutter, is making $18 an hour at Whole Foods Market--$1.18 less than he was being paid, but the nonunion Whole Foods doesn't require him to pay $11 per week in membership dues.

"I probably won't go back to Ralphs because there will be layoffs and my job is at risk," Garcia said. He knows of eight former co-workers with other jobs. "That's the fear that a lot of the workers have," he said. "There's no guarantee we will be (permanently) employed by the unions."

For lower-paid workers, the decision is easier.

Maria Reyes began her job as an Albertsons service dell clerk at $7.55 per hour last July. She now sells shoes at Steve Madden for $6.75 per hour plus a 2 percent commission.

Upon taking the job in early November, Reyes was told she would be making $10 per hour. But she said sales have been slower than expected at the Third Street Promenade location, so her take home pay is about equal to what she was making at Albertsons.

"Different co-workers of mine told me that it would last a week," she said. "Because of all the money the stores would be losing, they said it would inevitably lead us back to our jobs."

But the grocers, led by Safeway Chairman and Chief Executive Steven Burd, have surprised their employees by holding fast--leaving union officials on the defensive.

Not that there aren't significant risks for the supermarket chains.

One is that shoppers, after months of patronizing other grocers, will not go back. "When you have a long-term strike, customers find other suppliers and it becomes a habit," said Mitchell.

Another is an ongoing an antitrust investigation by California Attomey General Bill Lockyer. At the center of Lockyer's inquiry is the three chain's mutual aid pact that calls for Kroger to share the extra income generated after union workers removed picketers from Ralphs stores.

The financial hit being taken by the chains could also place pressure on them to settle.

Safeway's fiscal year ended Jan. 3 while Albertsons and Kroger conclude their fiscal years at the end of the month. Under Securities and Exchange Commission rules, public companies have 90 days to report results of the fiscal year.

Safeway plans to report its fourth quarter results on Feb. 12, and will not give any update on the strike's impact before then, according to Julie Hong, director of investor relations.

Kroger plans to report earnings on March 9 and doesn't intend to give any updates until then, said spokesman Gary Rhodes.

Albertsons spokeswoman Stacia Levenfeld said the company will report fourth quarter results in March.

Many analysts agree that the chains' losses, though significant, will be justified if they can muster permanent labor saving costs from the union, without losing their customer base.

That leaves the workers facing some hard choices.

With her prospects uncertain at both Albertsons and Victoria's Secret, Velasquez is applying for permanent work as a bank teller--one of the few areas where her experience as a cashier might lead to a well-paying job.

"This has been everything to me," said Velasquez, who has two children with her husband, a part-time FedEx driver. "I don't have any other skills."