Long Island's retail market in full bloom(Focus on Commercial Sales & Leasing)

Nowhere is the strength of the Long Island economy more evident than in the retail market. Not only are existing stores and shopping centers performing well, but there is no let up on the number of major retailers who continue to target this region for new development.

Even the ever-cautious economists have been forced to speak in glowing terms. Dr. Irwin Kellner, Hofstra University's Chair of Economics, one Long Island's most renowned economists, recently said, "1997 was as good as it gets for the U.S. economy and Long Island." He also projected a bright outlook for Long Island in view of low interest rates, increased job opportunities and higher sales revenues.

There's no question that these factors, coupled with Long Island's attractive demographics (i.e., one of the nation's highest per capita incomes, average annual household income of $60,000, etc.) will further drive the region's overall economy and the retail market in particular.

Low Vacancies, High Rents, Ongoing Development

Shopping centers Island-wide are enjoying low vacancy rates - between 15 and 20 percent. With demand up and supply down, rents are rising. In Nassau and Suffolk, the average retail leases are $20 per square foot and $18 per square foot, respectively.

Despite the cry by some that the region may be overbuilding, the general consensus by the real estate investment community and retail industry is that Long Island is ripe for continued retail development.

Among the retail projects underway are:

* The 172-acre Roosevelt Center at the former Roosevelt Raceway Flea Market site in Westbury;

* A 900,000 square-foot upscale mall at the former Cerro Wire site in Syosset;

* A multi-faceted retail and entertainment complex, including the Airport Plaza Shopping Center, at the former Republic Airport/manufacturing site on Route 110 in Farmingdale;

* The expansion of the Walt Whitman Mall in South Huntington to include a Bloomingdale's and Saks Fifth Avenue;

* A 900,000 square-foot mall in Yaphank, NY; and

* Town of Riverhead projects on County Road 59 and at the former Grumman site in Calverton.

Considering some of the highly publicized additions to Long Island's retail landscape in 1997 - Nordstrom's at the Roosevelt Field Mall, Fortunoff's The Source in Westbury, and the expansion of both major outlet shopping centers (i.e., Tanger's in Riverhead and Bellport), Sear's at the South Shore Mall in Bay Shore, etc. - the continued retail development trend is pretty spectacular. And the malls and outlet centers aren't the only areas blossoming.

Strip Shopping Centers Thriving

By and large, Long Island's strip shopping centers are also gaining momentum in this economy. Centers in high profile shopping districts, such as the North Shore's Garden City-Carlo Place-Westbury hub, are getting the best of these times. For example, Plaza 200, one of Pliskin Realty & Development's centers on Glen Cove Road at Voice Road in Carle Place, has minimum vacancy and a list of prime tenants who want to join ranks with successful retailers such as Seaman's, Kleinsleep, Pier 1 Imports, Van Heusen, Corning Revereware and Bass Shoes.

Even centers which attract discount retailers are having a goodyear. On the south shore, the Great South Bay Shopping Center on Montauk Highway in Babylon, for instance, just added a 15,000 square-foot Odd Job Trading.

Across the board, Long Island is seeing growth in the retail sector, from fitness clubs like Lucille Roberts, which recently signed leases for three new Suffolk locations (in Commack, Stony Brook and Shirley) to Kinko's, which added a new location on Route 110 in Melville; the Vitamin Shoppe, which signed a lease for a new site in Oceanside; and Interstate Brands. which is opening another Wonder Bread/Hostess outlet store in Elmont.

Investors Zero In

All this growth and expansion has not been lost on savvy real estate investors. In addition to the real estate investment trusts such as Kimco, First Industrial and Reckson, other investment groups are also looking to capitalize on Long Island's booming retail market. Recently, it was reported that Simon DeBartolo Group Inc. planned to purchase two area malls; Roosevelt Field and Walt Whitman, from their present owner, Corporate Property Investors (of New York City). It is likely there will be other properties changing hands, both at the regional mall and strip shopping center levels.