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Local investment firms look forward to another enriching year.


The year for those in the money management, securities and corporate finance communities has been tremendously enriching, with the stock market posting yet another healthy year, and mergers activities eclipsing all records.

"If you are an investment banker Investment Banker

A person representing a financial institution that is in the business of raising capital for corporations and municipalities.

Notes:
An investment banker may not accept deposits or make commercial loans.
, and not making money, you ought to consider gardening as a profession," said Jim Zukin, of the Westside-based corporate evaluation and investment banking shop Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin.

Nationwide, there were $482.2 billion worth of corporate mergers transacted in 1996, easily eclipsing the previous record $360.7 billion set in 1995, according to according to
prep.
1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians.

2. In keeping with: according to instructions.

3.
 a report prepared by Houlihan Lokey.

There is scarcely an investment banking or brokerage shop in Los Angeles Los Angeles (lôs ăn`jələs, lŏs, ăn`jəlēz'), city (1990 pop. 3,485,398), seat of Los Angeles co., S Calif.; inc. 1850.  not looking to hire in 1997.

Can next year top this? Opinions are mixed.

At Salomon Bros BROS Brothers
BROS Benefits and Retirement Operations Section (King County, Washington)
BROS Barnes and Richmond Operatic Society (London, UK) 
. in New York New York, state, United States
New York, Middle Atlantic state of the United States. It is bordered by Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and the Atlantic Ocean (E), New Jersey and Pennsylvania (S), Lakes Erie and Ontario and the Canadian province of
, economist David Hensley said the forecast is for a "small decline" in corporate earnings next year. That would probably dent the market, cooling off buying ardor ar·dor  
n.
1. Fiery intensity of feeling. See Synonyms at passion.

2. Strong enthusiasm or devotion; zeal: "The dazzling conquest of Mexico gave a new impulse to the ardor of discovery" 
, both among ordinary investors and corporate titans seeking merger partners.

"We are much less ebullient for next year," said Hensley. "The market may have to struggle next year."

Other industry observers predict continued action for investment bankers, given the abundance of capital available and the huge numbers of middle-market L.A. companies that need financing for mergers and acquisitions.

"I think the amount of private capital will continue to increase, and the number of mergers will increase. The pace of mergers will not slow," said Michael Rosenberg Michael Rosenberg (born May, 1954 in New York) is one of the top Bridge players in the United States. He moved to Scotland as a child and returned to New York in 1990 where he lives with his wife Debbie, also a top player. , managing director at Barrington Associates, a Westside-based investment banking shop.

If the public markets cool, many companies will just seek private financing, said Rosenberg.

Barrington, with 14 professionals, is already perhaps the largest boutique investment banking shop in Southern California. But it wants to increase its staff to 20 next year, said Rosenberg.

Others are bullish, but cautious.

"We are looking at redwoods, but trees don't grow to the sky," said Peter Griffith, managing director at Wedbush Morgan Securities in downtown Los Angeles Downtown Los Angeles is the central business district of Los Angeles, California, located close to the geographic center of the metropolitan area. The sprawling, multi-centered megacity is such that its downtown core is often considered just another district like Hollywood or . "Sooner or later the market is going to cool off. It was up 30 percent-plus in 1995 and 20 percent-plus in 1996."

Still, Griffith said he expects M&A activity to continue unabated in 1997, and for initial public offerings and other investment banking work to increase over the longer haul. "There are so many start-ups in the works now, and they are going to seek (public) financing at some point," he said.

Most money managers expect another good year in 1997.

There is a general consensus that some of the strongest fundamentals in history are in place for Wall Street, which will provide a good environment for money managers (as well as stockbrokers and investment bankers), for the next several years, including 1997.

The big positives for Wall Street are: a maturing U.S. population, which will become more prone to save and invest with each passing year; low inflation; low interest rates; and moderate economic growth.

A huge tide of people - 76 million, ornearly one-quarter of the total U.S. population - will cross over the 50-year-old barrier in the next 10 years, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.

Already, stock market mutual funds are flush with inflows, running between $12 billion and $20 billion a year, according to industry news services.

Too, inflation appears tame, and few forecasts call for a break-out in inflation on the upside. The recent UCLA UCLA University of California at Los Angeles
UCLA University Center for Learning Assistance (Illinois State University)
UCLA University of Carrollton, TX and Lower Addison, TX
 Anderson Business Forecasting Project quarterly report, for example, predicts inflation next year at 2.7 percent, as measured by the consumer price index, and around 3 percent annually for the rest of this decade.

With such a good foundation, "we expect next year to be very very good," said Daniel Genter, president and chief executive at RNC RNC Republican National Committee (US)
RNC Republican National Convention
RNC Radio Network Controller
RNC Royal Newfoundland Constabulary (provincial police force) 
 Capital Management Co. in West Los Angeles
  • West Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, a neighborhood of Los Angeles
  • West Los Angeles (region), a popularly identified region of Los Angeles, incorporating the neighborhood above
, a $1.2 billion shop.

Investors have few alternatives to the stock market, said Genter. Yields on bonds are low, and real estate appreciation muted. "People are going to have to deploy their assets into equities, if they want them to perform," he said.
COPYRIGHT 1996 CBJ, L.P.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 1996, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

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Article Details
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Title Annotation:Economic Outlook 1997; Los Angeles, CA
Author:Cole, Benjamin Mark
Publication:Los Angeles Business Journal
Article Type:Industry Overview
Date:Dec 30, 1996
Words:667
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