Local defense contractors wait for Clinton's other shoe to drop.

Los Angeles County defense contractors are likely to escape any serious cuts in Pentagon projects in 1994, according to industry analysts.

However, they do anticipate that deeper cuts are possible later on as President Clinton accelerates his plan to drastically reduce Pentagon spending.

At least initially, most of the expected cuts above those outlined by the Bush administration are expected to be made in military personnel rather than research or procurement. That means local contractors will be spared any new, big declines in Pentagon projects in fiscal 1994, which begins Oct. 1.

But that could be bad news for the Los Angeles Air Force Base.

Concurrent with the upcoming budget process for fiscal 1994 is the expected decision on the future of the base, which is a major research facility producing work for many local contractors and pumps $5.4 billion a year into the local economy.

Pentagon officials are compiling a list of military installations that will be considered for closing. That list will be released in mid-March, just about when Clinton is expected to submit his proposed Pentagon budget to Congress.

The final decision on closing military bases will be made by Clinton.

Air Force Maj. Bruce Lewis, a base spokesman, said last week that he had no idea if the facility will end up on the list, and added that most of the speculation has centered around the operation being transferred to New Mexico.

Two years ago the base was on a similar list of bases that could be closed but it remained open partially on the promise that something would be done to increase the amount of affordable military housing in the area for base personnel.

The Pentagon is considering a proposal to take over 22 acres of Los Angeles Unified School District land for construction of military housing.

There are now more than 2,600 military and civilian employees at the base, which is located on the border of Los Angeles and El Segundo. In addition, there are 1,000 contract employees of the base and 3,700 workers at the Aerospace Corp., a nonprofit research organization that is directly linked to the military facility.

Defense industry analysts in Washington, D.C., last week said it is unlikely there will be any new, big cuts in manufacturing and funding for most weapons and space research will likely remain close to current levels.

"From what Clinton has said and from signals from the administration, it doesn't look like there are going to be big cuts in procurement," said Sanford Gottlieb, an independent defense analyst in Washington. "The cuts will come from operations and maintenance of the military."

In his State of the Union address last week, Clinton outlined proposed cuts in defense spending that will accelerate from $11.8 billion in fiscal 1994 to $36.2 billion in 1997 for a total of $76 billion over four years.

Specific Los Angeles County projects that are likely to survive any deep cuts, at least initially, include the C-17 program, a military cargo plane made by Douglas Aircraft Co. in Long Beach. More than 11,000 workers are employed in Long Beach on the project that could be worth $35 billion in business to Douglas over the next decade.

The analysts said when Clinton unveils details of his first proposed military budget, he will maintain President Bush's decision last year to cap the controversial B-2 project at 20 aircraft. About 12,000 Northrop Corp. workers in the county are now employed on the project.

Clinton is also likely to continue funding for the F-18, a fighter aircraft whose tail section is made by Northrop in El Segundo, the analysts said.

Clinton will also probably fund continued pre-production work on the F-22, which is made by Calabasas-based Lockheed Corp. at facilities in Georgia.

The analysts said Clinton is also likely to continue spending in missile production, which would benefit Hughes Aircraft Co. Most of the analysts were uncertain about Clinton's intentions on future spending for Navy ships, which is a big part of Litton Industries Inc.'s business.