Libya-US Trade Boom Heralds Strategic Co-operation With Emphasis On Fighting Terror:.

*** There Is A Danger That The Lebanese Will Have Two Rival Governments, As In The Case Of The Gaza Strip And The West Bank; The Palestinian Refugee Camps In Lebanon May Become Mini- States Where Fatah & Hamas Could Have A War, If Syria Does Not Stop Fanning The Fires In Its Bargaining Games

*** Saudi Arabia And Iran Are Still Trying To Prevent A Sunni-Shi'ite War In This Volatile Part Of The World, With The Middle East And Its Peripheries Boiling Already

*** The Tehran-Led Axis Is Worried Things May Run Out Of Control For All Concerned

TRIPOLI - With two-way trade between Libya and the US having risen more than seven times since 2004 to reach an estimate of about $1.8 billion for 2007, Tripoli and Washington have begun co-operating in the American-led war against terrorism in North Africa. The target is the Neo-Salafi network of al-Qaeda, which has recently set up franchises in Algeria, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia. The US majors now are in the lead among international oil companies (IOCs) operating in Libya or planning to begin exploration and production (E&P) work there.

The US is to have a large embassy built in Tripoli. It is moving to a temporary site in the Libyan capital, where it has been staying at the Corinthia Bab Africa Hotel. In mid-April 2007, US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte visited Tripoli - the most senior US official to travel to Libya since 1953. That was followed by an agreement for the US to help Libya develop a civilian nuclear programme for electric power generation and medical purposes (see news24-MEnuclearRaceJun11-07).

Negroponte's mission to Tripoli, however, concentrated on Darfur -

the vast and war-torn western province of Sudan - a major crisis area in which Libya has been among regional powers with a say over its fate. Eventually, Libyan ruler Col. Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi agreed to back a US effort for the UN to play an active role in Darfur's peace-keeping operations (see below).

Libyan-US co-operation in the war against al-Qaeda may lead to geo-strategic partnerships between the two countries in Africa, says a highly-placed APS source in Tripoli. This has emerged following recent indications that al-Qaeda was trying to recruit Libyan and other Islamists living in the country for a franchise to operate in Libya. The source says a number of Libyan, Egyptian and Palestinian Islamists arrested in Benghazi in recent weeks had confessed that they had been preparing for such a franchise.

This was to be "a Libyan branch of al-Qaeda Organisation in the Islamic Maghreb" (QOIM) which was established in September 2006 after a merger of Algeria's Salafist Group for Call and Combat (GSPC) with al-Qaeda (see below). QOIM branches in Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia, as well as fellow al-Qaeda franchises in Mali, Nigeria and other African countries, have since caused a great deal of violence in this part of the world.

Meanwhile, two revived Libyan-US E&P ventures have raised the crude oil production capacity of this country by 120,000 b/d in less than two years of the return to Libya of the American companies. US firms now are involved in several other sectors, including that of electric power generation in which Bechtel is playing a key role (see survey of Libya being serialised from this week's APS Review, omt1LibProspJul2-07, down1-LibEnrBaseJul2-07 & gmt1LibGeo-Jul2-07).

The source tells APS a Tripoli decision to back US-led efforts for Darfur and for several other matters - including the setting free of the five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor sentenced to death in Libya - was taken by the top political leadership in Tripoli.

The source says developments now being resolved will be followed by a visit to Tripoli by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. He says most of these developments also concern US business interests.