Lend Lease issues 2Q report.Lend Lease Real Estate Investments released its second quarter research outlook, Directions 2Q: 2002. The forecast offers a general U.S. economic overview, as well as detailed analysis of the US real estate markets. According to the Directions report, the transaction log jam in U.S. commercial real estate markets has begun to loosen finally as most property sectors and markets have reached their cyclical nadirs. But the economy faces a period of slow growth with the threat looming of a possible double-dip recession double-dip recession An extended decline in economic activity following an aborted recovery from a previous recession. A relatively weak economic recovery sometimes causes investors to worry about the economy entering another recession. . Key Points - real estate markets: * Bid/ask spreads will melt away as bidders offer to buy close to the prices that are being asked by sellers. "Many investors are deciding to take advantage of institutional real estate's high cash returns," the report says. * This quarter may be the last chance to lock in additional debt at very reasonable rates with interest rates expected to drift upward during the remainder of the year. * Most land uses have settled into an "overshooting Overshooting The tendency of a pool of MBS to reflect an especially high rate of prepayments the first time it crosses the threshold for refinancing, specially if two or more years have passed since the date of issue without the weighted average coupon of the pool crossing the " phase, and are no longer in equilibrium. * Multi-family and industrial markets have hit bottom after relatively shallow declines. * The lodging market has steadily improved with growth rates Growth Rates The compounded annualized rate of growth of a company's revenues, earnings, dividends, or other figures. Notes: Remember, historically high growth rates don't always mean a high rate of growth looking into the future. almost back to their pre-Sept. 11 levels. * Office markets are midway into an "overshoot o·ver·shoot n. A change from steady state in response to a sudden change in some factor, as in electric potential or polarity when a cell or tissue is stimulated. " phase with national vacancy rates predicted to rise to 14% by yearend. * Demand for retail space continues to weaken as retailers close unprofitable stores and intensify expense control efforts. * REITS REITS Real Estate Investors of the Tri-States (Harrison, TN) continue to provide an attractive investment option with well-cushioned dividend streams. * CMBS CMBS See: Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities origination volumes in 2002 will experience modest decreases over 2001, but activity will pick up in the second half of the year. Key Points - general economy: According to Dr. Kenneth T. Rosen, Lend Lease Rosen Consulting: * 55% expectation of a slow rebound with GDP GDP (guanosine diphosphate): see guanine. growth of 2.4% from fourth quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of this year. * 20% likelihood that a strong recovery is already underway. * 25% probability that the economy will drop a second time before there is full recovery. As part of the Lend Lease Group, Lend Lease Real Estate Investments is one of the largest real estate investment managers in the world and a leading U.S. real estate advisor to pension funds. The company has $35 billion in real estate and commercial mortgages under management for institutional and private clients in the U.S. Listed on the Australian Stock Exchange Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) Australia's major securities market, formed when the six state stock exchanges (Adelaide, Brisbane, Hobart, Melbourne, Perth, and Sydney stock exchanges) were merged in 1987. , the Lend Lease Group is an integrated global real estate organization, operating in 41 countries on six continents. Lend Lease Directions is released on a quarterly basis. The report can be accessed via the web at www.lendleaserei.com. |
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