Lebanon War: The End Is Western Control, Iran-Syria Control, Or A Big Change In Syria:.

*** Moderate Arabs Complain That, With Hizbollah's And Hamas' Moves Described As "Advantures", Iran Hijacked The Palestine Cause To Divert World Attention From Its Nuclear Programme And Geo-Political Expansionism; The Ba'thist Dictatorship In Damascus Has Been Reduced To A 2nd Lt To The Tehran Commander

*** Sa'd Hariri Has Said Hizbollah Must Be Taken To Account For Its Having Put Lebanon On A Destructive Path

*** Walid Jumblatt Believes The Iran-Led Axis Won't Last Long

BEIRUT - Shi'ite Hizbullah on July 12 seized two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others, a move which Israel said triggered a war in Lebanon. Two weeks earlier Hamas seized an Israeli soldier in Gaza so that he would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. Hizbullah on July 12 demanded the same. The US and Western allies took those actions, particularly the July 12 one, as an answer from Iran and Syria that now there was a big power game in play - in the case of Iran over its nuclear ambitions; in the case of Syria over the fate of its Ba'thist dictatorship in the UN prove into the 2005 murder of former Lebanese PM Rafiq Hariri. As the war heated up on July 13, Saudi Arabia called Hizbullah's move "adventurism" on behalf of external powers (Iran-Syria axis) and held Hizbullah solely responsible for endangering the Arab position. On July 14 King Abdullah of Jordan and President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt met in Cairo and upheld the Saudi line, calling on the Beirut government to spread its authority throughout Lebanon including the south - a position rejected by Hizbullah and its allies including Iran, Syria, Hamas and other Palestinian rejectionists. On July 15 the Arab League's foreign ministers' meeting in Cairo ended with the split between the Saudi-led camp and that of the Syria-Iran axis becoming a fait accompli.

Hizbullah (the Party of God) was set up in Damascus - right after Israel's June 1982 invasion of Lebanon - under the auspices of Iran's then Ambassador to Syria, Hojjatolislam Ali Akbar Mohtashemi who was a key man in a hardline faction of Tehran's Shi'ite theocracy. Since then Hizbullah has been getting a $175m/year budget plus a variety of missiles and other arms through the Syrian channel - this being one of the main elements of a strategic alliance between Damascus and Tehran worked out in early 1980 between Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, a Ba'thist dictator, and the Khomeini theocracy.

When Assad died in June 2000 his son Bashar inherited the whole thing on the Syrian side. Israel had unilaterally withdrawn from an enclave in south Lebanon in late May, but Syria could keep the proxy war against Israel through Hizbullah claiming that the Sheb'a Farms, a small uninhabited territory seized by the Jewish state in the June 1967 war, was Lebanese land under Israeli occupation.

The above is a simplified review of a very complicated situation. Below is a summarised review of possible scenarios:

The war ends with a weakened and deeply split Hizbollah - pushed to the north of the Litani River - in a Lebanon under a Western/Arab protectorate pending long negotiations among the country's factions for an agreement. The Arab side of the protectorate is led by Saudi Arabia.

The war ends with a deeply wounded by still united Hizbullah - forced to stay north of the Litani - in a Lebanon under a Western/Arab protectorate pending long Lebanese negotiations which will result in civil war. The Syrian Ba'thist regime will collapse.

The war stops under a shaky ceasefire in a Lebanon controlled jointly by Iran and Syria, and Hizbullah emerging as a stronger force facing civil war. The game begins to end with a partitioning of Lebanon into different mini-states. The wave of partitions spreads of Syria, Iraq, Iran and other countries.

The war escalates to include Syria, in a more complicated cycle of hostilities with a US-led air/missile offensive against Iran which will destroy most of the latter's nuclear installations.

US President George W. Bush on July 18 warned Syria to stay out of Lebanon as he signalled to Israel that it would have more time to carry out its military campaign against Hizbullah as long as it did not bring down the Lebanese government. The US president's assurances to Israel that it was allowed to defend itself from Hizbullah's rocket attacks came as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice prepared to travel to the region.

The State Department denied reports Ms Rice had plans to go to Syria. A spokesman said the US had channels of communication through its embassy in Damascus, despite the withdrawal of the US ambassador in February 2005 after the assassination in Beirut of the former Lebanese PM Hariri. (International/Saudi pressure resulted in a withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon in April 2005 after Hariri's death.

After a cabinet meeting on his return from the July 15-17 G8 summit at St. Petersburg, Bush told reporters: "Syria's trying to get back into Lebanon, it looks like to me". He said there were suspicions that distabilising moves in Lebanon by Hizbullah would "cause some in Lebanon to invite Syria back in". That was against UN and US policy, Bush said.

Bush sidestepped a question on whether the Israeli offensive could continue for weeks, as a senior Israeli commander had suggested. He said Israel had been asked to ensure that the Lebanese government of Fou'ad Siniora survived, but the White House declined to comment on repeated Israeli strikes against Lebanese army units.

Comments from Washington have not indicated a sense of urgency in halting the violence. Bush said: "Everybody abhors the loss of innocent life. On the other hand, what we recognise is that the root cause of the problem is Hizbullah". State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack said he would not describe the US as seeking to buy time for Israel, but then explained why the US was opposed to a quick ceasefire, stating: "You don't want to end the violence, come to a cessation of the violence, come to a ceasefire in which you have the status quo ante". The proper diplomatic groundwork had to be laid with "full and complete consultations" before Ms Rice would travel to the region, he added.

The US wants to focus diplomatic efforts at the UN on implementing Resolution 1559. Adopted in September 2004 after a contentious vote, this included calls for a restoration of Lebanese government control over all its territory, and the disarmament of militias. Diplomats insist any package deal would have to include Resolution 1559.

Despite consistent UN warnings of weapon flows into Lebanon from Syria, earlier UN efforts to renew attention to the disarmament provision had been put on temporary hold as the UN Security Council (UNSC) awaited clearer results from the investigation into Hariri's murder. Whether a new international force could contribute to the disarmament of militias remains unclear. Despite critical comments, the US has not dismissed the concept completely.