Lebanon Accord In Qatar Freezes One War Front As The US Sees Its GME Role May Change.

*** The Lebanon Deal Was More The Result Of A Regional Change Than A Product Of A Lebanese Compromise; And Qatar Is Yet To Mediate A Peace Between Syria And Sunni Arab Rulers, Led By King Abdullah Of Saudi Arabia, Whom Pres. Assad On Aug. 15, '06, Had Described As 'Half Men'

*** Erdogan's Role As A Mediator Between Syria And Israel Began In Late 2004, After Assad Visited Ankara

*** Direct, But 'Informal', Israeli-Syrian Peace Talks Had Since Taken Place In Europe Through Ibrahim Suleiman - A US Businessman Who Is A Brother Of Top Intelligence Officer Bahjat Suleiman, One Pillar Of Assad's Regime

BEIRUT - Lebanon's ruling March 14 coalition and the Hizbullah-led March 8 opposition, both represented by 14 faction leaders, have finally agreed for Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander Gen. Michel Suleiman to be elected on May 25 as president of the republic, in an Arab/internationally-attended parliament session, and for a Qatar-brokered package of moves to decide the country's future in 2009 parliamentary polls. That ended a stand-off which on May 7-14 featured bloody battles that put Lebanon on the brink of yet another civil war. Thus one of the fronts in the cold war between a US-led alliance and an Iran-headed axis of anti-American forces was set to be frozen. The week also featured indirect peace talks between Syria and Israel in Istanbul, brokered by Turkey which is part of the US-led alliance in the Greater Middle East (GME), and quiet diplomacy between the Bush administration and Iran's Shi'ite theocracy. The US role in the GME might be changing.

The March 14 and March 8 groups on May 21 signed a deal in Doha brokered by the gas-rich emirate and the Arab League, a deal backed on May 23 by the UN Security Council (UNSC). The second May 21 surprise came from Istanbul, where an announcement of Syrian-Israeli talks was confirmed by Jerusalem and Damascus; the theocracy was not disturbed, saying it was Syria's right to regain the Golan Heights which Israel occupied during the June 1967 Arab-Israeli war and annexed in 1981.

Qatar has since emerged as a key peace-maker, not only on behalf of the six-state Arab Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) of which it is the smallest member and Saudi Arabia is the leader, but also for the Iran-led axis (including Syria) and the US-led alliance which includes Israel. The current US-Iran diplomacy could either result in a deal, or a war just before the November American presidential election if John McCain needs this to gain the White House.

By May 7 the Iran-led axis for the GME, driven by Tehran's nuclear and regional ambitions, had linked all the area's trouble spots - the theocracy's stand-off with Western powers that have military presence in the Gulf, Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza, and Sunni-Shi'ite tensions. This link still poses problems to all the GCC states - in addition to rising inflation, their dollar peg and other negative effects of their boom (see news21GCC-Security&BoomProblemsMay19-08).

With beleaguered Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a mediator, Syria and Israel have a tricky game of wits which, if it turns sour, may negatively affect the Lebanon deal (see news19SyrIsrLebIranMay5-08). Though the Iran-led axis and the US-led alliance were happy with the Doha deal, Erdogan and his AKP face a ban ruling by Turkey's highest court (see news15-TurkeyAKPvsKemalismApr7-08) and Israeli PM Ehud Olmert may soon lose his job because of a corruption scandal.

On May 22, Olmert's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said: "Israel wants to live in peace with its neighbours but Syria has to understand that it needs also full renunciation of supporting terror - Hizbullah, Hamas and of course Iran". She called Syria's Iran ties "problematic", as the Lebanese Shi'ite group is an offshoot of the theocracy which also sponsors Hamas. Her comments echoed US demands that Syria severe ties from what it considers a terrorist state and organisations.

Olmert on May 21 said: "The Syrians know what we want and we know what they want", with President Bashar al-Assad's negotiators touching on "regional security" from his "Greater Syria" perspective and their Jewish counterparts pointing to their "Greater Israel" frame of mind (see news17LebHoldsAllConflictsApr21-08 & news19SyrIsrLebIranMay5-08).

Syrian Information Minister Muhsen Bilal on May 22 condemned Israel's setting of any prior conditions, telling al-Jazeera TV: "These conditions have already been rejected as is the phrase 'difficult concessions', for what the Syrians are demanding is their right". Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak, who as PM in 2000 took part in talks with Syria which failed over the future of Golan, had said in a speech that both sides would have to make "painful concessions".

Visiting Bahrain to watch over the talks in Doha, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Mu'allem on May 21 said direct talks with Israel would be possible if the Istanbul negotiations got more serious. Other Syrian officials on May 22 told the BBC Damascus was hoping the US will eventually be involved in the negotiations as a guarantor of the proposed peace agreement. But the US is not keen on this for now.

It was only on Sept. 6, 2007, that Israel bombed a secret installation in Syria, which the US claimed was a nuclear site - a charge denied by Damascus. And Hizbullah commander 'Imad Mughniyeh was assassinated in a key Damascus street on Feb. 12 (see news8-LebSyrHizbIranFeb18-08).