Learning from earthquakes: Prevention Center touts preparedness.

Nineteen years ago this month, Mexico City suffered the most disastrous earthquake in its history. The death toll from the 1985 quake--actually two quakes in quick succession topping out at an 8.1 magnitude on the Richter scale--was an estimated 10,000, with a further 30,000 injured. Costs, according to Cenapred, Mexico's Disaster Prevention Center, amounted to US$4 billion.

The world was stunned by the apocalyptic appearance of one of the planet's largest cities in ruins beneath the lingering dust. Then as now, Mexico's capital was a true megalopolis, among the global top 10 in city population and the world's third for urban area population, after Tokyo and New York.

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Mexico--about to host the soccer World Cup the following year--was already staking its claim to media attention. Days after the Sept. 19 catastrophe, the TV watching-world was riveted by the apparently miraculous phenomenon of "earthquake babies"--newborns pulled out alive from the rubble of hospitals.

And over the next few years, for much of the world, the mere word "Mexico" was synonymous with quakes.

Back at home, the physical scars of rubble and construction debris were visible for well over a decade. One indication of the enduring human trauma was that ensuing quakes of lesser magnitude and intensity, and which resulted in negligible damage in Mexico City (e.g. June and September 1999), still claimed lives--from heart attacks spurred by panic.

Many analysts point to the political fallout and civic organization that followed as a key element leading to the watershed 2000 presidential elections which were seen as the first truly democratic polls in the country's history. Social critic Carlos Monsivais opines that solidarity and a new consciousness of citizen power led to less reliance on the prevailing stagnant paternalistic system, bringing about new forms of communication and participation.

Another positive change resulting from the quake was a system of civil protection that had not existed before, says Cenapred director Roberto Quaas.

"Nearly all developed countries have such a structure," Quaas told BUSINESS MEXICO in August, "usually born of war."

"The first need was to confront disasters, not prevent them," he said. But later, with funds from earthquake-prone Japan, the concept of Cenapred was developed in 1988, and the Center began operations in 1990.

Its purpose is to study, detect and monitor "perturbing phenomena," (from quakes to hurricanes to volcanic eruptions), developing a methodology to mitigate effects, educate the population and advise governments on technical matters.

THE DAY THAT CHANGED MEXICO

Petra Meyer's wedding was scheduled for Sept. 19, 1985, in Mexico City. The German girl, getting hitched to a Mexican, had catered for the big day herself.

"We spent the day giving the food away to the damnificados (homeless victims). I have no photos--you just didn't take photos at a time like that. It was terrible."

Everyone who was here has a story to tell of the calamity that began at 7:19 a.m., some heart wrenching, others almost surreal.

La Jornada newspaper, then in its early days, reported the tragic death of more than 800 seamstresses in San Antonio Abad, ignored by their bosses, who chose to rescue the sewing machines instead.

Painter Pedro Brachet took refuge in the doorway--widely recommended as one of the safest places--of his home in the Colonia Roma, now veined with deep cracks.

He remembers a house nearby whose muchacha (housekeeper) had gone out to buy bread.

"When she came back all that was left was a heap of rubble. She remembered that when she left, el joven (her young employer) had been in the shower, and told rescue workers where the bathroom would have been. Sure enough, they dug in the place she indicated, and there he was, almost unscathed. The funny thing was he didn't want to come out because he didn't want the maid to see him naked!"

Still other people had very different experiences, almost banal, compared to the shock and loss suffered by so many. Schoolteacher Luis Lesur was awoken by the tremor and his first thought was for his tropical fish.

"I realized the room was shaking so I leaned over to steady the tank. When it stopped, I went back to sleep," he said.

Lesur lived in San Angel at the time, part of the south of the city along with the Pedregal, which is far less vulnerable to quakes because of its solid, rocky foundation.

"It has been confirmed that damage tends to coincide in the area where the five great lakes of Tenochtitlan were located," Cenapred's Quaas said, adding that scientific studies since 1985 have progressively revealed when and why damage is caused.

"Thanks to this, we have an understanding of micro-zones in the city, which has helped the city government design better construction laws."

This is a great step forward, the seismic engineer said enthusiastically. "Experience shows disasters impact mostly on the least prepared and least aware of their surroundings. Earthquake survival does not depend on the strongest."

READY FOR THE NEXT ONE?

Seismic waves move "slowly," at a rate of 6 to 8 km per second, meaning that reports of a quake originating around Acapulco would reach Mexico City by radio 60 seconds before it hit the capital.

Although 60 seconds as the maximum short-term alert sounds like very little time, Quaas prefers to look at the long-term picture: we know where seismic energy is accumulating.

While we cannot know when the next quake will take place, or how large it will be, we can be sure there will be more quakes in high-risk zones such as Mexico City, Quaas said.

The challenge is to reduce vulnerability, since the seismic event and quake exposure are beyond prevention control.

Although Quaas is confident that new generations have more information than 20 years ago, the Center does not work directly with Mexico's Education Secretariat (SEP).

"There is still a lot to do regarding education and earthquakes. I'm not saying we are fully prepared," he said.

However, a new inter-institutional "Programa Especial Para Sismos" (PRESISMO--Special Program For Earthquakes) is due to start functioning next year, and Cenapred is also working on a National Risk Atlas.

"This is not a book, but rather an information system, that we hope will eventually get to colonia (neighborhood) level," Quaas said, adding that he hoped it would be available on the Internet next year.

Meanwhile, advice Quaas would give to people who live in seismic zones is first, know the level of risk. Secondly, be prepared, maintaining communication with municipal and state authorities. Have at hand telephone numbers where help and support is available, such as the nearest civil protection unit.

Lastly, concerned citizens should become involved in preparation. One example is the Community Civil Protection Brigades, which have 20,000 trained volunteers across the country so far.

The brigades were only initiated at the beginning of this year, even advertising occasionally on television, but Quaas says this is costly.

THE MIND BOGGLES ... ISN'T IT FREE?

No, only for official government agencies. Civic consciousness in Mexico is not so far evolved that such free advertising space is given, not even to save lives of the very consumers who keep the country's media barons in armored cars, yachts and private jets. Nor is there a law establishing media cooperation or social responsibility--in a country where over 30 million people are known to be at risk from earthquakes.

Nevertheless, progress in preparedness is happening little by little.

"Remember," Quaas said. "Self-protection is all important--the first thing you need to know is what you should do in your house, office or car, since it will be at least 15 minutes before outside help can arrive."

For those seeking information about what to do during a quake or who wish to form a civil protection brigade, phone Cenapred at: 5424 - 6100.

Further information on what to do during a quake can be found at: www.ssn.unam.mx/SSN/Doc/que-hacer.html

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One-third of Mexicans are exposed to earthquakes--that is, more than 30 million people have their homes in a seismic zone. As a society and as a country, we are not yet coordinated to deal with this."

--Roberto Quaas, Cenapred director, August 2004.

Barbara Kastelein is a Mexico City-based freelance writer.