Latin American and the Caribbean.
Latin America and the Caribbean
GDP
% change on year ago
LT Consensus Forecast *
latest 2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 8.3 Q3 '04 8.3 7.5 4.2
Brazil 6.1 Q3 '04 -0.2 4.6 3.7
Chile 6.8 Q3 '04 3.3 5.3 5.1
Colombia 2.4 Q3 '04 3.5 3.9 3.6
Ecuador 7.8 Q3 '04 2.4 5.3 3.0
Mexico 4.4 Q3 '04 1.3 4.1 3.6
Peru 4.7 Q3 '04 4.0 4.3 3.9
Venezuela 15.4 Q3 '04 -9.2 14.1 4.0
Industrial production Unemployment
% change on year ago % rate
latest latest
Argentina 10.5 Sep '04 13.2 Q3 '04
Brazil 7.6 Sep '04 11.4 Sep '04+
Chile 12.0 Sep '04 9.7 Sep '04
Colombia 1.7 Sep '04 12.5 Sep '04
Ecuador 0.7 Sep '04 11.3 Sep '04
Mexico 4.0 Sep '04 4.0 Sep '04+
Peru 4.5 Sep '04 9.1 Sep '04
Venezuela -- -- 14.4 Sep '04
Producer prices Consumer prices
% change on year ago
LT Consensus Forecast *
latest 2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 11.3 Sep'04 3.7 6.7 8.5
Brazil 14.2 Sep'04 9.3 7.4 5.7
Chile 4.8 Sep'04 1.1 2.6 3.0
Colombia 5.5 Sep'04 6.5 5.8 5.3
Ecuador 15.1 Sep'04 6.1 3.4 2.9
Mexico 9.9 Sep'04 4.0 5.1 4.1
Peru 6.0 Sep'04 2.5 3.4 2.6
Venezuela 26.2 Sep'04 27.1 21.0 21.7
Exchange rates Current account
end of period per US$ as % of GDP
LT Consensus Forecast * LT Consensus Forecast *
2003 2004F 2005F 2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 2.91 2.97 3.10 6.7 3.6 1.4
Brazil 2.89 2.87 3.05 0.8 1.7 0.6
Chile 601 608 619 -0.7 2.7 0.7
Colombia 2,779 2,646 2,830 -2.4 -2.0 -2.0
Ecuador 1.00 1.00 1.00 -1.8 1.0 1.6
Mexico 11.24 11.38 11.83 -1.5 -1.3 -1.4
Peru 3.46 3.41 3.51 -1.8 -0.8 -1.1
Venezuela 1,598 1,920 2.194 11.8 10.8 7.6
International reserves
US$ billions
LT Consensus Forecast *
2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 13.7 16.8 18.5
Brazil 49.3 48.4 46.5
Chile 15.9 16.5 17.0
Colombia 10.7 11.9 12.2
Ecuador 1.2 1.3 1.5
Mexico 56.5 59.1 60.0
Peru 10.1 11.2 11.3
Venezuela 21.0 23.0 24.4
* LATIN TRADE Consensus Forecast includes ABN AMRO, Banamex, Goldman
Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Santander
Central Hispano Investment, Smith Barney, UBS Warburg, LATIN TRADE
+ open unemployment (economically active, seeking work)
Consumer prices Interest rates
% change on year ago % per year
latest year ago deposit lending
Argentina 5.9 Sep '04 3.5 2.94 5.82 Sep '04
Bolivia 4.3 Sep '04 3.6 6.87 17.80 Sep '04
Brazil 6.7 Sep '04 15.1 16.03 54.70 Sep '04
Chile 1.5 Sep '04 2.2 1.94 4.91 Sep '04
Colombia 6.0 Sep '04 7.1 7.74 15.13 Sep '04
Costa Rica 13.8 Sep '04 8.3 9.50 23.67 Sep '04
Dominican Rep. 47.9 Sep '04 33.1 20.63 31.88 Sep '04
Ecuador 1.6 Sep '04 7.5 3.51 9.16 Sep '04
El Salvador 5.4 Sep '04 2.1 3.23 6.27 Sep '04
Guatemala 8.1 Sep '04 5.4 4.20 13.76 Sep '04
Honduras 8.4 Sep '04 7.3 11.01 19.68 Aug '04
Jamaica 10.5 Sep '04 13.1 7.93 17.76 Sep '04
Mexico 5.1 Sep '04 4.0 2.85 7.78 Sep '04
Panama 2.5 Jun '04 1.5 2.20 8.52 Sep '04
Paraguay 6.7 Sep '04 8.1 5.94 27.18 Sep '04
Peru 4.0 Sep '04 2.0 2.90 14.30 Sep '04
Trinidad & Tobago 3.2 Jun '04 4.2 2.74 9.50 Jun '04
Uruguay 9.6 Sep '04 11.6 -- -- --
Venezuela 20.8 Sep '04 26.6 13.04 17.29 Sep '04
Exchange rates
December 10th, 2004
currency per US$ per euro
Argentina Peso 2.97 3.96
Bolivia Boliviano 7.83 10.43
Brazil Real 2.78 3.70
Chile Peso 591.65 787.84
Colombia Peso 2,453 3,266
Costa Rica Colon 447.28 595.60
Dominican Rep. Peso 28.03 37.32
Ecuador Sucre 1.00 33,290
El Salvador Colon 8.75 11.65
Guatemala Quetzal 7.60 10.11
Honduras Lempira 18.1 24.10
Jamaica Dollar 61.27 81.59
Mexico Peso 11.24 14.97
Panama Balboa 1.00 1.32
Paraguay Guarani 6,017 8,013
Peru Sol 3.30 4.39
Trinidad & Tobago Dollar 6.22 8.28
Uruguay Peso 26.63 35.46
Venezuela Bolivar 1,917 2,553
Exports of goods
US$ millions
trailing
latest 12 months
Argentina 2,969 Sep '04 32,713
Bolivia 206 Sep '04 2,082
Brazil 8.923 Sep '04 90,572
Chile 2,414 Sep '04 28,498
Colombia 1,506 Sep '04 14,953
Costa Rica 514 Sep '04 6,153
Dominican Rep. 1,496 Q2 '04 5,532
Ecuador 621 Sep '04 7,149
El Salvador 266 Sep '04 3,042
Guatemala 411 Sep '04 4,833
Honduras 100 Sep '04 1,510
Jamaica 380 Q2 '04 1,336
Mexico 16,280 Sep '04 182,920
Panama 1,492 Q2 '04 5,361
Paraguay 132 Sep '04 1,533
Peru 1,114 Sep '04 11,380
Trinidad & Tobago 1.516 Q4 '03 5,175
Uruguay 269 Sep '04 2,722
Venezuela 10,480 Q3 '04 36,225
Imports of goods
US$ millions
trailing
latest 12 months
Argentina 2,013 Sep '04 20,338
Bolivia 150 Aug '04 1,762
Brazil 5,751 Sep '04 58,429
Chile 2,266 Sep '04 22,790
Colombia 1,374 Sep '04 15,586
Costa Rica 659 Sep '04 8,101
Dominican Rep. 1,900 Q2 '04 7,625
Ecuador 672 Sep '04 7,333
El Salvador 489 Sep '04 5.895
Guatemala 764 Sep '04 9,066
Honduras 317 Sep '04 3,762
Jamaica 867 Q2 '04 3,595
Mexico 16.755 Sep '04 188,924
Panama 1,753 Q2 '04 6,581
Paraguay 272 Sep '04 2,436
Peru 852 Sep '04 9,227
Trinidad & Tobago 1,193 Q4 '03 3,889
Uruguay 215 Sep '04 2,832
Venezuela 4,749 Q3 '04 15,780
International reserves ([dagger])
US$ millions
trailing
latest 12 months
Argentina 17,501 Sep '04 13,430
Bolivia 720 Sep '04 659
Brazil 49,311 Sep '04 52,505
Chile 15,832 Sey '04 15,649
Colombia 11,995 Sep '04 10,740
Costa Rica 1,656 Sep '04 1,596
Dominican Rep. 560 Sep '04 251
Ecuador 1,180 Sep '04 991
El Salvador 1,919 Sep '04 1,814
Guatemala 2,896 Sep '04 2,897
Honduras 1,695 Sep '04 1,395
Jamaica 1,643 Sep '04 1,218
Mexico 62,209 Sep '04 54.790
Panama 469 Sep '04 1.101
Paraguay 1,180 Sep '04 810
Peru 10,740 Sep '04 9,348
Trinidad & Tobago 2,866 Sep '04 2,403
Uruguay 2.347 Sep '04 1,713
Venezuela 16,437 Sep '04 14,237
([dagger]) Excluding gold, IMF definition
SOURCE: IMF, individual countries, Oanda, LATIN TRADE.
Rest of the World
GDP
% change on year ago
EIU forecast
latest 2003 2004F 2005
Belgium 3.0 Q3 '04 1.1 1.5 1.9
Canada 3.3 Q3 '04 1.7 2.7 2.9
China 9.1 Q3 '04 -- -- --
France 2.0 Q3 '04 0.2 1.8 2.3
Germany 1.3 Q3 '04 0.1 1.6 1.8
Hong Kong 7.2 Q3 '04 9.1 8.7 8.0
India 7.4 Q2 '04 8.1 7.3 7.5
Italy 1.3 Q3 '04 0.4 1.2 1.6
Japan 3.9 Q3 '04 2.7 2.8 1.3
Korea 4.6 Q3 '04 2.7 5.4 5.4
Netherlands 1.4 Q3 '04 0.8 1.1 2.0
Russia 7.4 Q2 '04 7.3 4.9 4.5
Spain 2.6 Q3 '04 2.3 3.0 3.2
Switzerland 2.0 Q3 '04 0.5 1.7 1.9
United Kingdom 3.0 Q3 '04 2.3 2.6 2.1
United States 3.9 Q3 '04 3.1 4.4 3.1
Consumer prices
% change on year ago
EIU forecast
latest 2003 2004F 2005F
Belgium 2.0 Sep '04 1.6 1.2 1.3
Canada 1.8 Sep '04 2.8 1.8 2.3
China 5.3 Jul '04 -- -- --
France 2.2 Sep '04 2.1 1.5 1.7
Germany 1.8 Sep '04 1.1 0.7 1.0
Hong Kong 0.7 Sep '04 -2.6 -0.5 0.5
India 9.0 Sep '04 3.8 4.4 6.0
Italy 2.1 Sep '04 2.7 1.9 1.9
Japan 0.0 Sep '04 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3
Korea 3.9 Sep '04 3.5 2.7 2.4
Netherlands 1.0 Sep '04 2.1 1.7 1.8
Russia 11.3 Aug '04 13.6 10.1 9.2
Spain 3.3 Sep '04 3.0 2.3 2.5
Switzerland 0.9 Sep '04 0.6 0.1 0.5
United Kingdom 3.1 Sep '04 1.4 1.3 1.7
United States 2.5 Sep '04 2.3 1.5 2.6
Interest rates
% per year
Lending
Belgium 6.70 Sep '04
Canada 4.00 Sep '04
China 5.31 Sep '04
France 6.60 Sep '04
Germany 2.05 Sep '04
Hong Kong 5.13 Sep '04 ([double dagger])
India 11.00 Aug '04
Italy 2.11 Sep '04 ([double dagger])
Japan 1.74 Sep '04
Korea 5.80 Aug '04
Netherlands 2.75 Sep '04
Russia 11.50 Sep '04
Spain 2.05 Sep '04 ([double dagger])
Switzerland 3.19 Sep '04
United Kingdom 4.75 Sep '04
United States 4.58 Sep '04
International
Exchange rates reserves ([dagger])
December 10th, 2004 US$ billions
per US$ per euro latest year ago
Belgium 0.75 -- 10.6 Sep '04 11.0
Canada 1.22 1.62 36.2 Sep '04 36.6
China 8.27 11.01 519.0 Sep '04 389.0
France 0.75 -- 32.5 Sep '04 29.7
Germany 0.75 -- 48.4 Sep '04 52.1
Hong Kong 7.78 10.36 118.4 Sep '04 112.1
India 44.10 58.72 115.4 Sep '04 88.4
Italy 0.75 -- 27.7 Sep '04 35.1
Japan 104.53 139.22 820.8 Sep '04 595.3
Korea 1,056 1,406 174.4 Sep '04 141.5
Netherlands 0.75 -- 9.8 Sep '04 11.7
Russia 28.02 37.31 91.3 Sep '04 58.3
Spain 0.75 -- 12.8 Sep '04 23.1
Switzerland 1.15 1.53 50.1 Sep '04 44.7
United Kingdom 0.52 0.69 41.7 Sep '04 40.9
United States -- 1.33 71.5 Sep '04 73.4
Unemployment rate
% rate
latest
Belgium 7.8 Sep '04
Canada 6.6 Sep '04
China -- --
France 9.9 Sep '04
Germany 10.3 Sep '04
Hong Kong 6.7 Aug-Oct '04
India -- --
Italy 8.1 Q2 '04
Japan 4.6 Sep '04
Korea 3.5 Sep '04
Netherlands 6.0 Jul-Sep '04
Russia -- --
Spain 10.5 Q3 '04
Switzerland 3.7 Sep '04
United Kingdom 2.7 Sep '04
United States 5.1 Sep '04
([dagger]) Excluding gold. IMF definition. ([double dagger]) Money
market rate.
SOURCE: EIU, IMF, individual countries, Oanda, LATIN TRADE
COPYRIGHT 2005 Freedom Magazines, Inc.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2005, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.
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