Latin America and the Caribbean.
Latin America and the Caribbean
Industrial
GDP production
% change on
% change on year ago year ago
LT Consensus
Forecast *
latest 2003 2004F 2005F latest
Argentina 7 Q2 '04 8.3 7.1 3.7 11.4 Jun '04
Brazil 5.7 Q2 '04 -0.2 4.5 3.6 13.0 Jun '04
Chile 5.1 Q2 '04 3.3 5.1 4.9 7.8 Jun '04
Colombia 4.3 Q2 '04 3.5 3.9 3.7 11.3 Jun '04
Ecuador 3.4 Q1 '04 2.4 4.4 3.3 -1.5 Jun '04
Mexico 3.9 Q2 '04 1.3 4.1 3.6 5.4 Jun '04
Peru 3.6 Q2 '04 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.0 Jun '04
Venezuela 13.6 Q2 '04 -9.2 12.7 3.2 -- --
Producer
Unemployment prices Consumer prices
% rate % change on year ago
LT Consensus
Forecast *
latest latest 2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 14.8 Q2 '04 8.6 Jun '04 3.7 7.2 8.5
Brazil 11.7 Jun '04+ 11.8 Jun '04 9.3 7.4 5.8
Chile 9.7 May-Jul '04 5.2 Jun '04 1.1 2.4 2.8
Colombia 14.1 Jun '04 5.9 Jun '04 6.5 5.8 5.3
Ecuador 10.5 Jun '04 11.8 Jun '04 6.1 3.5 2.9
Mexico 3.8 Jun '04+ 9.5 Jun '04 4.0 4.3 3.8
Peru 8.6 Jun '04 6.4 Jun '04 2.5 3.2 2.4
Venezuela 14.1 Dec '03 31.4 Jun '04 27.1 23.9 24.9
Exchange rates Current account
end of period per US$ as % of GDP
LT Consensus LT Consensus
Forecast * Forecast *
2003 2004F 2005F 2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 2.91 2.96 3.08 6.7 3.9 1.7
Brazil 2.89 3.02 3.20 0.8 1.6 0.6
Chile 601 617 618 -0.7 2.4 1.8
Colombia 2,779 2,695 2,871 -2.4 -1.9 -2.2
Ecuador 1.00 1.00 1.00 -1.8 0.6 0.7
Mexico 11.24 11.47 11.82 -1.5 -1.5 -2.2
Peru 3.46 3.53 3.58 -1.8 -1.3 -1.3
Venezuela 1,598 2,062 2,689 11.8 9.8 7.9
International reserves
US$ billions
LT Consensus
Forecast *
2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 13.7 16.7 17.8
Brazil 49.3 48.9 49.0
Chile 15.9 16.6 17.1
Colombia 10.7 11.8 12.1
Ecuador 1.2 1.3 1.6
Mexico 56.5 60.0 60.4
Peru 10.1 10.7 10.9
Venezuela 21.0 23.6 26.3
* LATIN TRADE Consensus Forecast includes Banamex, BBVA, Goldman
Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Santander
Central Hispano Investment, Smith Barney, UBS Warburg LATIN TRADE
(+) open unemployment (economically active, seeking work)
Consumer prices Interest rates
% change on year
ago % per year
year
latest ago deposit lending
Argentina 4.9 Jun '04 10.2 2.44 6.04 Jun '04
Bolivia 4.9 Jun '04 3.2 7.08 13.78 Jun '04
Brazil 6.1 Jun '04 16.6 15.12 54.50 Jun '04
Chile 1.0 Jun '04 3.7 1.81 5.03 Jun '04
Colombia 6.1 Jun '04 7.2 7.86 14.81 Jun '04
Costa Rica 11.9 Jun '04 10.2 9.50 23.42 Jun '04
Dominican Rep. 60.4 Jun '04 26.1 22.59 34.27 Jun '04
Ecuador 2.9 Jun '04 7.6 3.84 9.21 Jun '04
El Salvador 4.6 Jun '04 1.5 3.42 6.35 Jun '04
Guatemala 7.3 Jun '04 5.1 4.13 13.82 Jun '04
Honduras 8.3 Jun '04 7.2 11.15 19.94 Jun '04
Jamaica 12.2 Jun '04 10.7 7.95 17.75 Jun '04
Mexico 4.4 Jun '04 4.3 2.68 7.04 Jun '04
Panama 2.5 Jun '04 1.5 2.18 8.56 Jun '04
Paraguay 5.5 Jun '04 15.7 4.95 33.19 Jun '04
Peru 4.3 Jun '04 2.2 3.00 14.70 Jun '04
Trinidad & Tobago 3.2 Jun '04 4.2 2.74 9.50 Jun '04
Uruguay 9.6 Jun '04 24.7 -- -- --
Venezuela 22.3 Jun '04 34.2 12.64 17.80 Jun '04
Exports
Exchange rates of goods
September 29th, 2004 US$ millions
currency per US$ per euro latest
Argentina Peso 2.96 3.64 2,907 Jun '04
Bolivia Boliviano 7.77 9.57 205 Jun '04
Brazil Real 2.87 3.53 9,328 Jun '04
Chile Peso 589.85 726.40 2,307 Jun '04
Colombia Peso 2,540 3,128 1,385 Jun '04
Costa Rica Colon 437.87 539.24 556 Jun '04
Dominican Rep. Peso 34.96 43.06 1,335 Q1 '04
Ecuador Sucre 1.00 30,788 593 Jun '04
El Salvador Colon 8.75 10.77 278 Jun '04
Guatemala Quetzal 7.71 9.49 472 Jun '04
Honduras Lempira 17.93 22.08 150 Jun '04
Jamaica Dollar 61.25 75.43 279 Q4 '03
Mexico Peso 11.40 14.04 16,538 Jun '04
Panama Balboa 1.00 1.23 1,220 Q1 '04
Paraguay Guarani 5,834 7,185 146 Jun '04
Peru Sol 3.24 3.99 959 Jun '04
Trinidad & Tobago Dollar 6.22 7.66 1,345 Q3 '03
Uruguay Peso 27.59 33.97 245 Jun '04
Venezuela Bolivar 1,916 2,360 9,515 Q2 '04
Exports of goods Imports of goods
US$ millions US$ millions
trailing trailing
12 months latest 12 months
Argentina 31,308 2,025 Jun '04 18,053
Bolivia 1,916 152 Jun '04 1,715
Brazil 83,389 5,517 Jun '04 53,909
Chile 25,654 1,847 Jun '04 21,049
Colombia 13,826 1,363 Jun '04 14,937
Costa Rica 6,129 733 Jun '04 7,930
Dominican Rep. 5,531 1,707 Q1 '04 7,711
Ecuador 6,576 658 Jun '04 6,952
El Salvador 3,021 528 Jun '04 5,836
Guatemala 4,661 801 Jun '04 8,726
Honduras 1,444 327 Jun '04 3,617
Jamaica 1,156 987 Q4 '03 3,569
Mexico 176,143 17,021 Jun '04 181,693
Panama 5,192 1,344 Q1 '04 6,079
Paraguay 1,492 250 Jun '04 2,248
Peru 10,318 823 Jun '04 8,769
Trinidad & Tobago 4,552 914 Q3 '03 3,648
Uruguay 2,509 214 Jun '04 2,599
Venezuela 33,505 3,885 Q2 '04 13,137
International
reserves ([dagger])
US$ millions
latest year ago
Argentina 16,926 Jun '04 12,183
Bolivia 558 Jun '04 643
Brazil 49,641 Jun '04 47,802
Chile 15,844 Jun '04 15,486
Colombia 11,462 Jun '04 10,390
Costa Rica 1,634 Jun '04 1,688
Dominican Rep. 453 Jun '04 437
Ecuador 882 Jun '04 762
El Salvador 1,837 Jun '04 1,687
Guatemala 2,872 Jun '04 2,483
Honduras 1,625 Jun '04 1,454
Jamaica 1,632 Jun '04 1,167
Mexico 60,409 Jun '04 55,198
Panama 792 Jun '04 1,310
Paraguay 1,071 Jun '04 769
Peru 10,441 Jun '04 9,651
Trinidad & Tobago 2,785 Jun '04 1,986
Uruguay 2,241 Jun '04 1,161
Venezuela 18,008 Jun '04 12,828
([dagger]) Excluding gold, IMF definition
SOURCE: IMF, individual countries, Oanda, LATIN TRADE
COPYRIGHT 2004 Freedom Magazines, Inc.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2004, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.
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