Latin America and the Caribbean.
Latin America and the Caribbean
GDP
% change on year ago
LT Consensus Forecast *
latest 2004 2005F 2006F
Argentina 9.1 Q4 '04 9.0 6.6 3.7
Brazil 4.9 Q4 '04 5.2 3.8 3.7
Chile 6.4 Q4 '04 5.8 5.6 4.8
Colombia 4.3 Q4 '04 4.0 3.6 3.3
Ecuador 4.5 Q4 '04 6.6 3.4 3.3
Mexico 4.9 Q4 '04 4.4 3.9 3.7
Peru 6.8 Q4 '04 5.1 4.4 3.9
Venezuela 11.2 Q4 '04 17.3 5.2 3.7
Industrial production Unemployment
% change on year ago % rate
latest latest
Argentina 6.9 Jan '05 12.1 Q4 '04
Brazil 6.0 Jan '05 10.2 Jan '05 (+)
Chile 5.3 Jan '05 7.5 Jan '05
Colombia 2.3 Jan '05 13.2 Jan '05
Ecuador 3.0 Jan '05 11.5 Jan '05
Mexico 2.9 Jan '05 4.1 Jan '05 (+)
Peru 5.3 Jan '05 13.0 Jan '05
Venezuela -- -- 15.5 Jan '05
Producer prices Consumer prices
% change on year ago
LT Consensus Forecast *
latest 2004 2005F 2006F
Argentina 7.2 Jan '05 6.1 10.2 7.2
Brazil 13.9 Jan '05 7.6 5.7 4.9
Chile 8.8 Jan '05 2.4 2.6 3.0
Colombia 4.4 Jan '05 5.5 5.5 5.0
Ecuador 2.9 Jan '05 2.0 2.3 2.9
Mexico 7.6 Jan '05 5.2 3.9 3.8
Peru 4.7 Jan '05 3.5 2.4 2.8
Venezuela 21.1 Jan '05 19.2 20.8 22.5
Exchange rates
end of period per US$
LT Consensus Forecast *
Argentina 2.98 3.00 3.11
Brazil 2.65 2.85 3.06
Chile 560 591 600
Colombia 2,390 2,545 2,709
Ecuador 1.00 1.00 1.00
Mexico 11.20 11.73 12.06
Peru 3.28 3.30 3.41
Venezuela 1,920 2,175 2,548
Current account International reserves
as % of GDP US$ billions
LT Consensus Forecast * LT Consensus Forecast *
Argentina 2.0 1.0 -0.3 18.9 22.9 25.1
Brazil 1.9 0.6 -0.2 52.7 57.0 54.0
Chile 1.5 0.6 -0.4 16.0 16.8 16.8
Colombia -1.3 -1.4 -1.7 13.4 14.4 14.5
Ecuador 0.7 0.3 -1.6 1.1 1.7 1.6
Mexico -1.3 -2.0 -1.9 61.5 62.1 62.8
Peru 0.0 -0.5 -1.2 12.0 13.6 13.9
Venezuela 13.5 10.1 6.6 24.3 25.2 25.0
* LATIN TRADE Consensus Forecast includes Banamex, BBVA, J.P. Morgan
Chase, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Santander Central Hispano
Investment, Smith Barney, UBS Warburg, LATIN TRADE
(+) open unemployment (economically active, seeking work)
Consumer prices Interest rates
% change on year ago % per year
deposit lending
year
latest ago
Argentina 7.2 Jan '05 2.7 2.81 5.57 Jan '05
Bolivia 5.4 Jan '05 4.2 5.83 25.84 Jan '05
Brazil 7.4 Jan '05 7.7 17.03 55.80 Jan '05
Chile 2.3 Jan '05 0.8 2.76 5.64 Jan '05
Colombia 5.4 Jan '05 6.2 7.67 14.96 Jan '05
Costa Rica 13.4 Jan '05 11.0 9.50 23.67 Jan '05
Dominican Rep. 18.8 Jan '05 50.9 21.18 31.49 Jan '05
Ecuador 1.7 Jan '05 3.9 3.30 8.56 Jan '05
El Salvador 5.7 Jan '05 2.4 3.23 6.85 Jan '05
Guatemala 9.0 Jan '05 5.8 4.31 13.53 Jan '05
Honduras 9.0 Jan '05 6.9 10.96 19.45 Dec '04
Jamaica 12.4 Jan '05 15.8 7.57 17.72 Dec '04
Mexico 4.5 Jan '05 4.2 3.12 8.87 Jan '05
Panama 1.6 Jan '05 1.9 2.36 8.73 Jan '05
Paraguay 3.2 Jan '05 5.5 1.99 24.43 Jan '05
Peru 3.0 Jan '05 2.8 3.20 15.10 Jan '05
Trinidad & Tobago 4.3 Sep '04 4.2 2.70 8.75 Dec '04
Uruguay 5.7 Jan '05 10.5 -- -- --
Venezuela 18.5 Jan '05 26.6 13.27 18.29 Jan '05
Exchange rates Exports of goods
April 21, 205 US$ millions
trailing
per per 12
currency US$ euro latest months
Argentina Peso 2.9 3.79 2,743 Jan '05 34,811
Bolivia Boliviano 8.07 10.56 171 Jan '05 2,237
Brazil Real 2.56 3.35 7,444 Jan '05 98,118
Chile Peso 580.00 759.34 2,969 Jan '05 32,644
Colombia Peso 2,342 3,066 1,342 Jan '05 16,527
Costa Rica Colon 470.00 615.32 489 Jan '05 6,311
Dominican Rep. Peso 26.70 34.96 1,459 Q4 '04 5,750
Ecuador Sucre 1.00 32,730 616 Jan '05 7,645
El Salvador Colon 8.75 11.45 262 Jan '05 3,054
Guatemala Quetzal 7.61 9.96 445 Dec '04 5,036
Honduras Lempira 18.06 23.64 131 Jan '05 1,553
Jamaica Dollar 61.52 80.54 294 Q3 '04 1,323
Mexico Peso 11.06 14.47 14,108 Jan '05 190,361
Panama Balboa 1.00 1.30 1,677 Q4 '04 5,886
Paraguay Guarani 6,235 8,163 100 Jan '05 1,634
Peru Sol 3.26 4.26 1,239 Jan '05 12,917
Trinidad & Tobago Dollar 6.26 8.19 845 Q1 '04 4,681
Uruguay Peso 25.08 32.83 236 Jan '05 2,960
Venezuela Bolivar 2,145 2,808 10,848 Q4 '04 39,371
International
Imports of goods reserves ([dagger])
US$ millions US$ millions
trailing
12 year
latest months latest ago
Argentina 1,890 Jan '05 22,601 19,405 Jan '05 14,697
Bolivia 171 Jan '05 1,910 769 Jan '05 644
Brazil 5,260 Jan '05 63,828 53,836 Jan '05 53,084
Chile 2,318 Jan '05 25,372 15,584 Jan '05 16,017
Colombia 1,464 Jan '05 17,014 13,604 Jan '05 11,112
Costa Rica 720 Jan '05 8,371 1,906 Jan '05 1,677
Dominican Rep. 2,168 Q4 '04 7,845 955 Jan '05 254
Ecuador 784 Jan '05 8,113 1,150 Jan '05 903
El Salvador 499 Jan '05 5,166 1,814 Jan '05 1,935
Guatemala 858 Dec '04 9,477 3,410 Jan '05 2,808
Honduras 338 Jan '05 3,981 1,970 Jan '05 1,373
Jamaica 927 Q3 '04 3,659 1,873 Jan '05 1,253
Mexico 15,272 Jan '05 199,556 65,023 Jan '05 62,953
Panama 2,017 Q4 '04 7,471 1,110 Jan '05 1,224
Paraguay 184 Jan '05 2,638 1,139 Jan '05 934
Peru 907 Jan '05 10,027 12,676 Jan '05 10,130
Trinidad & Tobago 1,209 Ql '04 4,201 3,187 Jan '05 2,457
Uruguay 290 Jan '05 3,175 2,470 Jan '05 2,130
Venezuela 5,431 Q4 '04 17,318 18,767 Jan '05 16,850
([dagger]) Excluding gold, IMF definition
SOURCE: IMF, individual countries, Oanda, LATIN TRADE
LATIN TRADE Index
October '04
% CHANGE
OCTOBER '04/03
Total trade US$ 67.5 billion 26.0%
Export US$ 35.3 billion 17.8%
Imports US$ 32.2 billion 17.2%
Monthly combined exports and imports of Latin
America's eight largest economies: Argentina, Brazil,
Chile, Columbia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela
[GRAPHIC OMITTED]
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