Lakers face high-stakes off-season.

No Shaq? No Phil? No fans'?

This summer's expected breakup of the Los Angeles Lakers should yield a new line-up and the likelihood of what some refer to as a "rebuilding year."

Which means, more often than not, the team loses lots of games.

The question is whether it loses lots of business.

Probably not, at least in the long run. While the last five years under coach Phil Jackson have been especially strong in attendance and television ratings, the Lakers have a solid fan base that's likely to hold up, especially if star Kobe Bryant stays with the club, as appears likely, and he is acquitted of sexual assault charges.

"The Lakers may have a decline in attendance and performance, and the local ratings in L.A., but all of this is cyclical in our business. It's not an Armageddon," said Neal Pilson, a Chappaqua, N.Y.-based consultant and former president of CBS Sports.

Even so, the breakup is expected to be massive. Besides Jackson and Shaquille O'Neal, questions linger over other marquee players, including Karl Malone, Rick Fox and Derek Fisher.

"Am I nervous?" asked Steve Simpson, vice president and general manager of Fox Sports Net, which airs most of the Lakers regular season games. "They are a storied franchise and have always done things to get back into the winning ways. I personally do not see a drop in viewership."

For Fox, the stakes are considerable. Less than a month ago, before the team's collapse in the NBA Finals, Fox Sports Net West and the Lakers announced a new eight-year agreement in which FSN is scheduled to telecast all regular-season home games, plus additional playoff games and preseason contests. KCAL (Channel 9) just completed the sixth year of its current seven-year contract to broadcast away-games. There also are NBA contracts involving ABC, ESPN and TNT telecasts in which the Lakers typically generate high ratings.

Lower attendance likely

Then there is the franchise itself. In the 2003-04 season, the team had near record-high home attendance of 776,336, and according to Forbes magazine's annual tally of NBA teams, operating income stood at $22.8 million, fourth-highest in the league.

The Lakers, meanwhile, have been the top NBA team in merchandise sales over the past two years, according to Street & Smith Sports-Business Journal (sales numbers are not available).

Based on previous Lakers dry spells, some of those numbers are likely to drop. The team's attendance plummeted in the years after Magic Johnson retired, falling to 545,915 in the 1993-94 season (when the team had a 33-49 record and failed to make the playoffs). While the arrival of Bryant and O'Neal in 1996 boosted turnout, it wasn't until Jackson came, along with the move to Staples Center, that season attendance reached the 770,000 level.

"If you lose Kobe and Shaq, and they don't sign marquee players you'll probably see a falling off of viewers pretty rapidly early on, unless the team comes out of the gate winning, and convince the fans that they have a shot," said Dean Bonham, chairman and chief executive of the Bonham Group, a Denver-based sports and entertainment marketing firm.

But others argue that with a new coach, several new players and the soap opera life of Bryant, there may be renewed interest in the team. "People will want to tune in early (next season) to see if the new coach can get them back to where they want to be," said David M. Carter, principal with the Sports Business Group.

Whatever emerges, according to sports consultants, is unlikely to affect the team's overall valuation, which Forbes estimated at $447 million, up 5 percent from 2003. That's 11.5 percent more than the next-highest value team in the National Basketball Association, the recently struggling New York Knicks.

"If Jerry Buss said he's out of the Lakers," said Pilson, "I'd bet there'd be a line around the Staples Center wanting to write a big check. Whether its value is up or not depends on what happens in the next few weeks. But as I sit here today, it's not less valuable than it had been six months ago."

Renewed Interest?

The last high-profile NBA franchise to be taken apart was the Chicago Bulls after Michael Jordan and Phil Jackson left following six championship years in the 1990s. The team subsequently collapsed.

Regular season television ratings for NBA games dropped steadily, from 6.3 million viewers per game in Jordan's last season in 1997-1998 to 4 million in 2000-2001--the year prior to his brief return to the Washington Wizards. Bulls' attendance, meanwhile, fell 43 percent the year after Jordan and Jackson left.

The luster has not returned. In fact, Nielsen ratings for NBA finals have never attained the same level since the Bulls won their last championship in 1998. That's when 18.7 percent of the nation's television sets were tuned in, or more than 29 million viewers.

In this year's finals, Nielsen reported an 11.5 percent rating, or an average 17.9 million viewers.

But the Bulls comparison can only be taken so far because the collapse in Chicago was exacerbated by the owner's decision to reduce payroll sharply. There is no indication that Lakers owner Jerry Buss is interested in any similar payroll cuts.

Instead, Buss might be counting on some elasticity when it comes to fan loyalty. And in an era of free agency and stratospheric player salaries, he could be right.

In this year's ranking of NBA merchandise tied to specific players, for example, Bryant was knocked from the top spot to No. 7, while O'Neal fell to No. 9 from No. 7. This season's No. 1 player in merchandising was Cleveland Cavaliers standout LeBron James, the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft last year.

Bottom line: For all the star attraction of Bryant and O'Neal, others are always waiting in the wings.

"The Lakers are compelling television," noted Fox Sports Net's Simpson. "Whatever team is on the floor next year, it will be compelling to watch. People will tune in to see what happens. That's the mystique of the Lakers."

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