Lakers' fan loyalty being tested by team's slow start.

One quarter of the way into the NBA season and the three-time defending champion Lakers find themselves in unfamiliar territory--battling the woeful Clippers to stay out of the Pacific Division cellar.

The question is, will it matter to the team's bottom line?

Much, of course, depends on whether the champions for three consecutive years shake off their early season lethargy and find a place in next spring's playoffs. Typically, when teams start winning, all is forgiven.

But with a record of 7-13 and as of late last week little sign of a turnaround, the Lakers are testing the patience--as well as the wallets--of fans in L.A. and elsewhere.

"If they come out flat with this air of complacency that the early games don't have any importance, why should the fans put any importance on it?" said David Carter, principal at the Sports Business Group. "Fans in Southern California tend to stick by their teams when they are winning."

So far, there are only small indications of any erosion in fan support. Ticket brokers report that demand for Lakers' tickets, once the hottest seat in town, have been sluggish so far this season. So have sales of Lakers merchandise, according to local retailers. And local broadcast TV ratings are marginally down from a year ago.

Fair weather fans

"It's not the same as it was last year, but we think that will change when Shaquille O'Neal is back and they start winning," said Jerry Rothberg, managing director of Union Ticket Agency in Hollywood.

Rothberg estimated that demand and prices for Lakers tickets have been down 25 percent from last year, which he attributed to the poor record and the absence of O'Neal, who delayed surgery on his arthritic big toe and missed the first 12 games. Continued losses inevitably will affect demand. "Los Angeles traditionally does not support losing teams. The fans just don't get excited unless they are winning," Rothberg said.

Scott Damschroder, the owner of Scorecard sports shop in Studio City, said sales of Lakers gear has been steady, although not what they were after the first two championships in the team's latest title run.

"When you win two, three, four years in a row, the early part of the season is not so emotional," said Damschroder, who still stocks his store with as much Laker gear as he can find.

Lakers' spokesman John Black acknowledged that the team's poor start has some fans anxious, but he said it was way too early to panic from either a basketball or a financial perspective.

"As far as attendance, we've sold out every game," Black said. While viewership on KCAL-TV (Channel 9) is down slightly, officials for Fox Sports Net, which has local cable rights for Lakers' broadcasts, said ratings have been slightly up this year.

During last week's home game against the lowly Memphis Grizzlies, which the Lakers struggled to win, there was little outward evidence of a franchise in trouble. The Lakers Girls were still doing their thing, "I Love L.A." was played after the game--and, as usual, many fans showed up after the opening tip-off.

"They put on a pre-game show that's better than the WWF. The Lakers Girls remind me of the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders of the 1970s," said Howard Hall, 37, a Boston resident who attended a game at Staples Center last week. "It's a much better environment than the Fleet Center (home of the Celtics). It's show time. People are having a good time."

Sellouts continue

Keeping up such goodwill--win or lose--takes on important financial consequences, both for the Lakers and the league overall.

The closest thing in the National Basketball Association to "America's team," the value of the Lakers franchise rose 12 percent in 2001, to $403 million, according to Forbes magazine, which ranks it as the most valuable in the NBA. The team's $144 million in revenues in 2001 was second only to the New York Knicks' $157 million, Forbes reported. And those numbers could draw closer as the Knicks struggle these days to fill Madison Square Garden.

Meanwhile the Lakers keep filling Staples Center on a regular basis, and according to an NBA survey released last week, Lakers team gear led all sales since the beginning of the season at NBA.com and the league's retail outlet in New York. Kobe Bryant and O'Neal were third and ninth, respectively, in individual jersey sales.

Merchandise revenues m the NBA are split, with the players receiving a share and a larger pie divided equally among all 29 teams. Worldwide sales from NBA merchandise are projected to reach $2.1 billion this year, up more than 10 percent from 2001, the NBA says.

Those numbers could be hard to sustain should the Lakers keep losing, and fail to advance in the playoffs. After Michael Jordan retired from the Chicago Bulls in 1998, the team nose-dived with three straight seasons of at least 60 losses in an 82 game schedule. Despite so many losses, the Bulls still finished second in home attendance during the 20002001 season. Then, last year, they fell to eighth.

"It took a couple of years because people wanted to wait before they gave up their seats. When it became clear they weren't going to get better soon, the numbers went down," said Jeremy Mullman, who covers sports business for Grain's Chicago Business.

During the Bull's second run of three consecutive championships, there was a waiting list to get a spot on local broadcasts, Mullman said, but those days are long gone. "There were fewer fans, which means you can't ask as much for your television spots and your radio spots. All your revenue streams are affected," he said.

The Bulls example only goes so far when assessing the Lakers' prospects. That team was essentially pulled apart after Jordan's left, leading to a long-term rebuilding process that continues to this day. The Lakers, meanwhile, still have their marquee players and a highly regarded coach, Phil Jackson, plus an owner showing little inclination to shake things up.

And despite Southern California's reputation as having fair-weather fans, there are notable exceptions to the rule - starting with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who despite not having won a playoff game in nearly 15 years continue to draw consistently large crowds to Chavez Ravine.

The Lakers themselves have a storied history of championship play dating back to their days in Minneapolis that has generated goodwill and kept the fan base high. It began in the 1960s and 1970 when Wilt Chamberlain and Jerry West were the stars and grew during the Showtime era of the 1980s, with Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul Jabbar.

As long as O'Neal and Bryant are under contract, it's unlikely the Lakers would experience a Bulls-like drop-off. Even so, Carter questions the patience of Lakers fans, noting that they "would be a lot less tolerant than Dodgers fans if the team went years without winning a playoff game. That hasn't happened so far. Even when they weren't winning championships the Lakers were still decent."

For Darryl McMillon, a 31-year-old fan who attended the Lakers-Grizzlies game, it all comes down to fundamentals.

"I don't think they've been putting their all into it, but a lot of players have been hurt. It's time to turn it around' he said. "We have the two best players in the league so I think our chances are really good of getting back into it."