Lack Of Security Threatens Hard-Won Gains.

A hand grenade on Jan. 4 was tossed into a government army compound in Mogadishu in a sign of a growing insurgency. Just days after Ethiopian-led troops helped rout Somalia's once-powerful Islamist forces and install a new government in Mogadishu, there were indications that security was unravelling across the country. The violence is surging on two fronts: anti-government attacks and increased banditry, both of which were mostly unheard of during the Islamists' short reign.

Shortly after nightfall on Jan. 4, a man in a pickup truck threw a grenade over a wall and into a compound which housed Ethiopian and government soldiers. Apparently, no one was seriously hurt and the pickup truck escaped in a blaze of gunfire.

In northern Mogadishu, residents said four people were killed on Jan. 3 after bandits fired a rocket at a truck whose driver refused to pay extortion. Unauthorised checkpoints have popped up all over the city, reminiscent of the years of anarchy when clan-based militias carved up Mogadishu, and much of the rest of Somalia as well.

In Dhagtur, in central Somalia, Shabelle radio on Jan. 4 reported that five people, including two children, had been killed by a tribal militia during a gun battle. A dispute over a well was cited as the possible cause.

Despite increasing bloodshed, the newly empowered TFG is not slowing down. On Jan. 4, Prime Minister Ali Muhammad Gedi appointed more than 30 new judges, including two women. Gedi said: "Quite soon, the police stations in Mogadishu will be operational. If a criminal is arrested, the police will have the access to put the criminal on trial".

It sounds simple but since the central government collapsed in 1991, the wheels of justice have rusted over, with few functioning police stations, jails or courts remaining. Gedi pushed ahead with his disarmament plan, extending the deadline which was set to expire on Jan. 4 for two more days and threatening house-to-house searches if people did not turn in their guns.

The African Union is trying to put together a peacekeeping force to take the place of Ethiopian troops and lend muscle to the TFG. The transitional government is still battling the last remnants of the Islamist forces, who have fled to a remote, heavily-forested area in southern Somalia along the Kenyan border. Somali officials said several hundred Islamist fighters were cornered and that it was only a matter of days until the Islamist movement was finished for good.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles on Jan. 2 said Ethiopian troops could be pulled out of Somalia within two weeks, adding that the victors of Somalia's two-week war were now "mopping up remnants" of the country's former Islamist leaders.

Addis Ababa, which backs Somalia's weak TFG, launched an offensive on Dec. 24 against the Islamist movement which has controlled much of the country's south since June. After Ethiopia sent in thousands of troops, supported by tanks and fighter jets, the Islamists retreated rapidly and on Jan. 1 fled Kismayo port, their last stronghold. But despite promises of a swift withdrawal, doubts remain about when Meles would be willing or able to pull back his troops.

Ethiopia has had troops in Somalia for months before it announced its military presence in December. Somali PM Gedi on Dec. 2 said the forces should stay for months until the country had been pacified.

Ethiopia faces a painful dilemma: if it withdraws too quickly it could leave a security vacuum in an often threatening neighbour which has endured 15 years of chaos and violence. However, the longer the troops stay, the more likely the Ethiopians could be seen as an occupation force or become embroiled in a guerrilla war with the remaining Islamist forces.

Some observers said that, while Addis Ababa had legitimate security concerns, it had broken international protocols by invading Somalia. But Washington, which accused the Islamist movement of including al-Qaeda suspects, has given support to Ethiopia to mount its offensive.

The military operation will be a drain on Ethiopia's meagre resources. The country maintains one of Africa's largest armies, estimated by an Ethiopian analyst to be about 150,000 troops, down from a figure of up to 300,000 during its 1998-2000 border war with Eritrea. But the impoverished country of 77m people is dependent on donor funding and Meles' government has agreed to keep military spending at a flat cash rate of 3 bn birr ($355m) per annum in recent years. Aid donors will be monitoring to see if there has been any rise in defence spending.

The FT on Jan. 4 quoted a Western diplomat in Addis Ababa as saying: "We will be looking very carefully to see if Somalia has had an impact. If it has, we will take a very serious view of that".

Regardless of the aid advantages of a swift withdrawal from Somalia, it is likely to take weeks before a peacekeeping mission could deploy and fill any security vacuum. Diplomats and the Somali government have called for an African-led operation, but it is unclear who would finance or contribute troops to the mission. An official with the cash-strapped African Union, which is already overstretched providing peacekeeping troops in Sudan's Darfur region, told the Financial Times the organisation was still internally discussing proposals.