LIBYA - The Opposition.

There are several opposition groups outside Libya. None of them seems to be strong enough to take over power and keep Libya united. The most organised group is the National Front for the Salvation of Libya (NFSL), which regularly reports clashes in Libya between opposition forces and the regime's police or military. The NFSL also reports attacks or assassinations abroad by the regime's intelligence agents against opposition figures. Another group, the Libyan National Democratic Organisation, is close to the deposed Sanoussi royal family.

The London-based Mohammed Al Hassan Al Rida Al Sanoussi, heir to the Libyan throne with a title of crown prince, on Aug. 31, 1996 accused Qadhafi's regime of dropping mustard and nerve gas on its opponents in Libya from planes piloted by Cubans, Serbs and North Koreans. He said the opposition inside Libya included soldiers who had taken refuge in the Green Mountain area in the east. In late 1996 Scotland Yard provided the prince with special bodyguards after an attack by the regime's agents during a ceremony at a London mosque.

Being in exile, while the Libyan regime holds control through several inter- twined intelligence networks and popular committees, these groups have no base of significance within Libya.

Islamic militants inside Libya pose a more serious threat to the regime. They include the Movement of Islamic Martyrs, the Group of the Followers of God and the Militant Islamic Group. They are mainly based in the east around the Benghazi region and have been involved in frequent clashes with the regime's forces. Over 1,000 people have died in clashes between government forces and Muslim militants since late 1995. Added to these are Qadhafi's opponents within Libya's armed forces who staged a coup attempt in October 1993. The eight alleged leaders of that attempt, including colonels and majors, were executed on Jan. 2, 1997. An anti-Qadhafi alliance between the military

opponents and Islamic militants, proposed in late 1996 by a militant shaikh, could be very dangerous.

Tribal rivalries are most pronounced in the armed forces. Each of the main tribes is represented in the military establishment and the various popular and revolutionary committees. The Warfalla tribe, which turned against Qadhafi in 1993, is numerous and dangerous to Qadhafi, and is closest to Jalloud's Magariha tribe. The October 1993 coup attempt was spearheaded by Warfalla officers at the Bani Walid region 120 km south-east of Tripoli. The main reason for the coup attempt was that, despite its size, this tribe was poorly represented in the regime and only occupied second-echelon posts in the officers' corps. Moreover, Warfalla tribal officers have been excluded from the air force. The Al Zintan tribe backed the Warfalla against Qadhafi. The air force is reserved almost exclusively to the Qadhadfa tribe, to which Qadhafi belongs. It was the air force which crushed the coup attempt in October 1993.

Jalloud's Magariha tribe comes next to the Warfalla in terms of numerical strength and is bigger than the Qadhadfa. One of the two Lockerbie suspects now awaiting trial in the Netherlands, Abdel Baset Al Migrahi, belongs to an important branch of this tribe. Allegations that the Magariha backed the Warfalla during the coup attempt led to Qadhafi's order to place Jalloud under house arrest.

Despite the crushing of the coup attempt, the Warfalla remain strong, numerous and represented in the armed forces as well as the civil service. Only 12 key figures from this tribe were arrested and eight of them were executed. The rest of the officers and troops involved in the attempt are said to be kept in hiding by the tribe. If Jalloud's Magariha, the Warfalla and Islamic militant groups unite against Qadhafi in an all-out confrontation involving the military, they could take over power. But that would soon be followed by challenges from other tribes of which Jaber, Kharrubi and Humeidi are representatives. Ultimately, if Qadhafi is overthrown, these tribes could fight each other; Libya could be split into several regions.