LIBYA - The Challenge Of Globalisation - Part 10.

Libya, under Col. Moammar Qadhafi, has for long walked on a tightrope between globalisation and isolation. A country which has some of the most highly skilled technocrats in the world, it was on the other hand considered a state supporting terrorism until the late 1990s. Though carefully managed diplomacy, it managed to come out from under the shadow of UN sanctions in April 1999, and it has since kept a low profile on the geo-political stage. Simultaneously, it has emerged as one of the hottest investment prospects in the Middle East with economic liberalisation once again high on the agenda of the regime.

In the meantime, Qadhafi has been demonstrating that - despite his somewhat eccentric rhetoric - he can be very pragmatic when it comes to safeguarding his regime's interests. Politically, the situation within Libya remains relatively stable, or at least as stable as most neighbouring states. The ruling superstructure that he has put in place is based on a combination of tribal allegiances and a unique authoritarian system with no constitution and no political parties. Qadhafi holds no formal office but he has absolute power. Opposition is prohibited.

Libya's international isolation ended on April 5, 1999, when the UN Security Council suspended sanctions based on resolutions 731 (1992), 748 (1992) and 883 (1993) - after Tripoli released the two suspects in the Lockerbie airliner bombing for trial by Scottish prosecutors at Camp Zeist, the Netherlands. The UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, was then asked by the Security Council to report to it within 90 days on Libya's commitment to ending all forms of terrorist action, assistance to terrorist groups and renunciation of terrorism. The UN Security Council on July 9, 1999, welcomed "positive progress" by Libya in meeting its obligations in the Lockerbie case, and promised to lift sanctions "as soon as possible".

Despite some mild and occasional frictions over the issue, sanctions have remained suspended. From the perspective of the US, which is the country mainly interested in isolating Libya, Qadhafi has been "behaving relatively well". He has not been overtly linked to any terrorist events in recent years, and has limited his anti-US feelings largely to rhetoric.

The suspension of sanctions ended a period in Libyan history - from April 1992 to April 1999 - when the country was in a state of limbo. During that time, there was a ban on air traffic and on the sale of military and aviation equipment, a freeze on Libya's assets abroad and a clampdown on the transfer of funds into Libya, a ban on selling a range of oil-related equipment (mainly for the downstream sector), and a cut in the size of diplomatic representation.

The return to normalcy began soon after the sanctions were lifted. Within three months, the British government decided to resume diplomatic relations with Libya as Tripoli agreed to pay compensation to the family of a young British policewoman shot dead outside Libya's London embassy in 1984. In the same time frame, the French foreign ministry said Libya had transferred to Paris funds (said to be worth FF200m) to compensate for 170 people killed in a UTA DC-10 airliner which exploded in mid-air over Niger in 1989 (see below).

No serious political reforms, or a move to Western-style democracy, can be expected so long as Qadhafi continues to rule Libya. And in the post-Qadhafi era, it is virtually impossible to project what kind of political system would emerge or even if the country would remain in one piece. So far there are no indications that Qadhafi is planning for succession, although prospects of a dynastic takeover by one of his two sons cannot be ruled out.

Qadhafi believes he has discovered and implemented the perfect political system in Libya: a "constant revolution" carried out by "the masses" in a state of statelessness with its superstructure consisting of overlapping lines of authority and a decentralised administration. He says this is a system that is far better than either capitalism or communism. So long as he is in power, he is not likely to change from this approach. As such, prospects for serious political reform in Libya during the Qadhafi era is virtually non-existent.

The Qadhafi Approach Will Be Different: The Libyan leader has always tried to create his own unique system or method, be that in matters of government or economics. As such, he is trying to apply the same logic towards the issue of globalisation. He believes, for instance, that the idea of globalisation had already been applied by Libya through its support for pan-Arab and pan-African state mergers or other co-operative arrangements. His focus was on regionalisation before globalisation, although at the time when Qadhafi was promoting such ideas the cold war was still on, the internet was yet to emerge as a major global mechanism of information and communication, and the notion of globalisation had not yet made an appearance. Under his guidance, Libya has been focusing on Arab unity and African integration (with different emphases in both Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa).

As part of his regionalisation drive, in February 1998, Qadhafi took the initiative in establishing the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (Comessa), with the aim of linking landlocked African countries to Libya, which was prepared to fund projects like the asphalting of the Trans-Saharan Highway to Niger. As envisaged, the Comessa project included the founding of the Eastern and Southern African Trade and Development Bank with 75% Libyan capital. Libya also acted as mediator in a number of African conflicts, for example in Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan and Burundi among others. In addition, Tripoli has increased its influence through gifts and loans, especially to countries that were part of the French sphere of influence but feel "abandoned". Libya has also paid several countries' membership arrears to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU).

The regionalisation policy was, in part, designed to break down the walls of isolation that the US attempted to build up around Libya. In a way it worked. African leaders were the first to break the embargo on flights into Libya, which led eventually to the lifting of sanctions against the country. At the fourth extraordinary OAU summit, convened in the Libyan city of Sirte in September 1999, the goal was to decide on the principle of an African union. It was attended by almost all African states, and Qadhafi declared at the meeting: "Africa must be united... There is no time to waste".

The union plan adopted at the summit involved a thorough overhaul of the OAU statutes but fell short of Qadhafi's ambitious vision of a "United States of Africa" on a par with the United States of America or the European Union. The African Union project was finally adopted in July 2000 at the Lome summit, which was 95% funded by Libya, and the plan is now being ratified. On a visit to Ghana just before the summit, the Qadhafi had declared: "Africa is not 50 states. It is one nation, one people, one culture, one economy, one defence and no borders

... Those leaders who do not want unity should leave and join their colonial masters".

More recently, Qadhafi has spoken in favour of globalisation and recognised its inevitability. In a Dec. 30 interview given to the Berlin-based Tagesspiegel daily, Qadhafi pointed out: "Experience has taught us the lesson that globalisation forces us to open up... Those who do not accept this change

will be considered reactionary". He also said he agreed with former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev who said that those who come too late will pay a price - a comment then directed at reform-resistant East Germany in 1989. (The Berlin Wall fell soon after).

Qadhafi also said in the interview that the era of terrorism had ended because such actions were not needed, citing changes in places such as Nicaragua and Ireland. Indeed, there is a general recognition that Libya, after years of keeping away at least in terms of public rhetoric from strong support for the radical Islamist movements and other rejectionist groups in the Middle East, no longer upholds the "revolutionary" approach that it used to have. After the recent WTC/Pentagon attacks, for example, Libya was not mentioned much in the Western media as being among the states that sponsored terrorism or harboured terrorists.

Still, Libya is under a number of sanctions imposed by the US on a bilateral level. Washington also continues to block Libyan efforts at greater international legitimacy. Libya is neither a member nor an observer of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), for example, and it is highly unlikely that it will become one so long as its relations with the US remain strained. While there have been indications of some quiet moves towards rapprochement between the two countries, especially in view of US companies' interest in returning to the Libyan hydrocarbon sector, not much progress is expected until a better political relationship is developed.

This has not significantly stalled Qadhafi's efforts at integrating with the rest of the world, most importantly integrating with Europe. The relationship with Europe has proved to be extremely important from Libya, both from a strategic and an economic viewpoint - with links with Italy being especially important. On April 6, 1999, one day after the UN sanctions were lifted, then Italian Foreign Minister Lamberto Dini was the first top foreign official to fly to Tripoli. On Dec. 1, 1999 the Italian prime minister, Massimo D'Alema, became the first western head of government to visit Tripoli.

In the Tagesspiegel interview, Qadhafi pointed out: "There is a special relationship of trust and friendship with Italy... From an economic point of view, cooperation with Germany would be important and fruitful... France is trying very hard to move in this direction but has had a hard time as political problems have always arisen". Relations with Germany and France have been improving as well. It is important to note that while Libya was under sanctions from 1992 and 1999, 90% of its oil exports went to Europe. Libyan companies honoured their commitments despite the embargo. Libyan foreign acquisitions during the sanctions period included foreign groups such as the British-owned Metropole hotel chain and the Czech chain Corinthia Hotels International.

At the Euro-African summit in Cairo on April 4, 2000, the president of the European Commission, Romano Prodi, received Qadhafi for two hours' of talks. Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern, who also met Qadhafi at the summit, said relations with Libya had changed completely and he looked forward to their normalisation now that sanctions had been lifted. In November 2000, Libya was granted observer status at the Euro-Mediterranean conference in Marseilles and it is hoping to become a full member of this important regional organisation.