LIBYA - Libya's Political Leadership.

The Opposition: There are several opposition groups outside Libya. None of them seems to be strong enough to take over power and keep Libya united.

The most organised group is the National Front for the Salvation of Libya (NFSL), which regularly reports clashes in Libya between opposition forces and the regime's police or military. The NFSL also has reported attacks or assassinations abroad by the regime's intelligence agents against opposition figures.

Another group, the Libyan National Democratic Organisation, is close to the deposed Sanoussi royal family.

The London-based Mohammed Al Hassan Al Rida Al Sanoussi, heir to the Libyan throne with a title of crown prince, on Aug. 31, 1996 accused Qadhafi's regime of dropping mustard and nerve gas on its opponents in Libya from planes piloted by Cubans, Serbs and North Koreans. He said the opposition inside Libya included soldiers who had taken refuge in the Green Mountain area in the east. In late 1996 Scotland Yard provided the prince with special bodyguards after an attack by the regime's agents during a ceremony at a London mosque.

Being in exile, while the Libyan regime holds control through several inter-twined intelligence networks and popular committees, these groups have no base of significance within Libya.

Islamic militants inside Libya pose a more serious threat to the regime. They include the Movement of Islamic Martyrs, the Group of the Followers of God and the Militant Islamic Group. They are mainly based in the east within the Benghazi region and have been involved in frequent clashes with the regime's forces. Over 1,000 people died in clashes between government forces and Muslim militants from late 1995 to early 1999.

Added to these are Qadhafi's opponents within Libya's armed forces who staged a coup attempt in October 1993. The eight alleged leaders of that attempt, including colonels and majors, were executed on Jan. 2, 1997.

An anti-Qadhafi alliance between the military opponents and Islamic militants was proposed in late 1996 by a militant religious leader. But this is yet to materialise; and after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the US by Islamist terrorists of Osama Bin Laden's Al Qaida, Qadhafi has said his authorities have jailed such militants.

Tribal rivalries are most pronounced in the armed forces. Each of the main tribes is represented in the military establishment and the various popular and revolutionary committees. The Warfalla tribe, which turned against Qadhafi in 1993, is numerous and dangerous to the regime, and is closest to Jalloud's Magariha tribe.

The October 1993 coup attempt was spearheaded by Warfalla officers at the Bani Walid region 120 km south-east of Tripoli. The main reason for the coup attempt was that, despite its size, this tribe was poorly represented in the regime and only occupied second-echelon posts in the officers' corps. Moreover, Warfalla tribal officers have been excluded from the air force.

Al Zintan tribe backed the Warfalla against Qadhafi. The air force is reserved almost exclusively to the Qadhadfa tribe, to which Qadhafi belongs. It was the air force which crushed the coup attempt in October 1993.

Jalloud's Magariha tribe comes next to the Warfalla in terms of numerical strength and is bigger than the Qadhadfa. One of the two Lockerbie suspects now being tried in the Netherlands, Abdel Baset Al Migrahi, belongs to an important branch of this tribe.

Allegations that the Magariha backed the Warfalla during the coup attempt led to Qadhafi's order to place Jalloud under house arrest.

Despite the crushing of the coup attempt, the Warfalla remain strong, numerous and represented in the armed forces as well as the civil service. Only 12 key figures from this tribe were arrested and eight of them were executed. The rest of the officers and troops involved in the attempt are said to be kept in hiding by the tribe.

If Jalloud's Magariha, the Warfalla and Islamic militant groups unite against Qadhafi in an all-out confrontation involving the military, they could take over power. But that would soon be followed by challenges from other tribes of which Jaber, Kharrubi and Humeidi are representatives.

Ultimately, if Qadhafi is overthrown, these tribes could fight each other. Libya could be split into several regions and, in that case, it would take many years for order to return to this country.

Moammar Mohammed Abdel Salam Abu Minyar Al Qadhafi: In power since Sept. 1, 1969, Qadhafi is the supreme decision maker and can at any time decide on a petroleum policy or project and other matters (see OMT).

Born in 1942 at a village which the Saudi magazine 'Al Majalla' has called "Juhannam" (in Arabic meaning hell) in the Sirte region, Qadhafi belongs to the Qadhadfa tribe. His father was a camel dealer from the tribe's Qadhafaddam clan. His cousins Ahmad and Sayyed Qadhafaddam are powerful in the ramified intelligence community, with Ahmad also acting as a commander of a special military force and as a liaison man between Libya and other Arab states.

On Sept. 1, 1969, Qadhafi and 11 fellow "free officers" on the General Provisional Committee for Defence Co-ordinators (GPCDC) staged their coup against the Sanoussi monarchy. Since then there have been several cycles of structural change in Libya, with the cabinet and central legislature elected every year by the GPC.

On March 1, 2001 Qadhafi got the GPC's annual meeting in the southern town of Sebha to scrap most secretariats (ministries), leaving only the Secretariats for Foreign Affairs, African Unity, Finance, Information, and Justice and Public Order.

Qadhafi then told the GPC: "We have shown the world a model demonstrating that governments are not needed. You have no more government to complain against. Now everything is in your hands and in future you can only complain to yourselves".

He also told the GPC: "I would like that a constitutional reference (a head of state's position) be established. The (present) General Co-ordinator of the Social Popular Command could be the head of state in a formal manner. We need him in case something happens, like a catastrophe, a war or whatever".

The General Social Popular Command is an informal body of respected members of the community at national or local levels who act as advisors. Its co-ordinator is theoretically chosen under a rotating system every six months and, although his name is never mentioned by the Libyan media, he ranks highest in protocol.

Qadhafi's wish fuelled speculation that his favourite son Saif Al Islam (Sword of Islam), aged 33, may be chosen for the post which would imply the latter could be the heir to the higher position of "The Leader of the Revolution" in the post-Qadhafi era.

It was Saif who recommended the nomination of Dr. Shokri Ghanem to the post of secretary general of the General People's Committee (prime minister) before the congress (GPC) held its latest session in Sirte on June 7-14, 2003. The GPC elected Ghanem, who replaced Mubarak Al Shamekh.

The GPC abolished the General Planning Council and established the Planning Secretariat (ministry). It elected Taher Al Jehaimi as secretary for planning. It also abolished the African Unity secretariat and this portfolio was added to the Abdel Rahman Shalqam's secretariat for foreign co-operation and international liaison (see profiles in DT).

In external matters, Qadhafi has become disillusioned with the Arab world and has concentrated on African affairs since the late 1990s. He boasts of the African Union as being his brainchild. He has repeatedly indicated since the late 1990s that he wants Libya to pull out of the Arab League, obviously because his ideas have been largely ignored by Arab rulers.

In complex regional problems, such as the Arab-Israeli conflict, Qadhafi always tries to simplify matters and promote simplistic but radical projects. His latest is "Israteen", presented in a speech aired via satellite to the London School of Oriental & African Studies on June 27, 2003.

He gave the speech to a meeting at the Academy of Graduate Studies in Tripoli organised by the London Middle East Institute. He said: "We are laying down a timebomb in seeking a two-state solution" between Israel and the Palestinians. Instead, he said, Israel and Palestine should have one state to be called Isra-teen (teen for Falasteen, Arabic for Palestine). He said this should be a federation, drawing on South Africa and Lebanon as models.

After the civil war in Lebanon broke out in the mid-1970s, Qadhafi offered "a lasting solution", not only for the Lebanese but also for all other Arab countries that have Christian communities. He said the Christians should simply convert to Islam.

Even his associates are sometimes embarrassed by Qadhafi's radical ideas. But none of them would dare challenge the leader or question his erratic behaviour.

Here is the top tier of Qadhafi's regime: (1) the Leader of the Revolution, Col. Moammar Al Qadhafi; (2) the suspended 2nd-in-command, Maj. Abdel Salam Jalloud, who may re-appear some day; and (3) the remaining members of the former General Provisional Committee for Defence Co-ordinators (GPCDC): Col. Abu Bakr Yunis Jaber, Maj. Mustafa Al Kharrubi, and Maj. Khoueildi Humeidi.

Under these men, the Qadhafi logic combines both a simple formula for the top decision makers to retain power and a complex concept of "constant revolution" (see detailed Libyan who's who & background in Gas Market Trends, Vol. 53, No. 4).