LEBANON - Pax Americana Is Changing - Part 9.

Lebanon is one of the countries facing the widest range of implications as a result of the events of Sept. 11, 2001. Unlike the 1980s, when virtually every terrorist attack in the region or against American interests had a Lebanese connection, 9/11 had virtually no link with groups or individuals from Lebanon - only one of the 19 hijackers had a Lebanese connection. Yet the changes in the region being dictated by a Pax Americana that is much tougher than ever before is bound to have an impact on developments in the Levant region as well as within Lebanon itself.

Having been a virtual haven for Islamist militant groups through the 1980s, Lebanon had become entangled in the Al Qaida network by default - as some of the group's members had ideological or personal links to the country. Consequently, American diplomatic pressure has been relentless albeit low profile. On the other side is Syria, with which Lebanon has a close security relationship based on defence agreements, has a somewhat different interpretation of the regional situation. Unlike the US, it does not treat the war against terror as being a separate issue from the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Thus, the Syrian and US perspectives began to confront each other in Lebanon after 9/11. Prior to that, based on understandings reached around the time of the first Gulf war of 1991, Washington had turned a relatively blind eye towards the growth of Syrian influence in Lebanon. But the Bush administration, and American public opinion in general, have become less tolerant of autocratic regimes - and Syria is an easy target, with virtually no lobbying power at present in Washington.

There are two schools of thought regarding the implications for Lebanon. One is that 9/11, and the American reaction to it, have proved to be a blessing in disguise for Lebanon. According to this line of thinking, which is backed up by lobbyists in Washington, the new tougher Pax Americana will have a direct impact in terms of reducing Syrian and Iranian influence in Lebanon. There are internal political constituencies in which will not view this as a positive development.

Syrian redeployment of forces from Lebanon is one example of how Pax Americana has influenced the behaviour of states in the region. In the face of mounting criticism by the Bush administration and a bipartisan push for sanctions - via the Syria Accountability Act - in the US Congress, Syria reduced its military presence in central and northern Lebanon in July 2003. The redeployment was its fourth in three years and came ahead of schedule. It is believed that roughly 1,000 soldiers, two dozen tanks, and several dozen armoured personnel carriers were withdrawn from the country in the fourth deployment on July 14. Indications are that all Syrian troops will be withdrawn or at least pulled out of urban areas in 2004.

Another school of thought is that Lebanon could itself become a target for US military action in view of the activities of Hizbollah and Sunni radical groups operating in the country. Hizbollah is on the US list of terror groups, and National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice has warned after 9/11 that Washington has neither forgotten nor forgiven Hizbollah's terrorist activities in the 1990s. According to this school of though, Lebanon could be affected if the US raises pressure level against Syria - which Washington has also included in an expanded group of countries supporting terrorism.

On Sept. 2 2002, Zeev Schiff, a prominent Israeli journalist who covers the military, reported in Haaretz daily that Damascus has allowed between 150 and 200 Al Qaida operatives to settle in the Palestinian refugee camp of Ein Al Hilweh, near the Lebanese coastal town of Sidon. The group allegedly included senior commanders who arrived from Afghanistan through Damascus and Iran, the newspaper said, attributing its information to "various intelligence services". Haaretz also reported that Mohammed Atta, who commandeered the first airplane to hit the World Trade Centre on Sept. 11, visited Syria two or three times but pointed out that Syrian intelligence agencies did not voluntarily offer this information to the US.

Where the government of Lebanon was concerned, the US made its intentions clear immediately after 9/11. According to an Agence France Press report at the time, US Ambassador to Lebanon Vincent Battle met soon after the attacks with Lebanese officials at the foreign ministry in Beirut and spelled out in very clear terms what steps had to be taken by the Lebanese government in order to satisfy Washington's call for anti-terrorism cooperation. The primary demand was to "seize terrorists, prosecute them and hand over or expel those who are wanted". The Lebanese reaction was apparently ambivalent. After the meeting, Battle publicly accused the Lebanese government of hosting "terrorist organisations".

As such, there have been clear indicators towards the possibility that Lebanon could itself become a target in the war against terror. In line with the American campaign against terrorism, Washington has over the past two years been steadily pressuring Beirut to turn over those suspected of having links to Al Qaida or other groups listed as terrorists by the US. If external pressures, from the US and Israel on one side and from Syria and Iran on the other, begin to exacerbate the political, religious and sectarian rifts within the country, then a return to violence of the kind that plagued Lebanon through the 1970s and 1980s cannot be ruled out. In other words, the country could once again become a battleground in a proxy war between the forces behind Pax Americana and those trying to resist its spread.

Pax Americana - A Blessing In Disguise? A majority of observers consulted by APS feel, however, that Pax Americana would turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Lebanon. The government of Prime Minister Rafic Al Hariri is walking a fine line. It is well aware that it cannot afford to alienate either Washington or Damascus, nor can it risk provoking Israel or Iran. But keeping all sides happy is virtually impossible, and the loser in this is Israel - which has faced cross-border attacks in the disputed Shebaa farms area over the past two years. It has responded with air strikes, but this has dented neither Hizbollah's capacity nor its readiness to conduct further attacks as it deems necessary.

The US is in the process of expanding its relationship with Lebanon across the board, but in a steady manner. In a speech commemorating the 227th independence day of the US on July 4, 2003, American Ambassador Battle stated that the concepts of freedom and democracy transcend culture, race, religion and geographic borders and that "they are as relevant to you in Lebanon as they are to us in America".

Battle then listed some of the recent developments in US-Lebanese relations, as follows: "Last month (June), we opened a new Consular facility that allows us to resume issuing non-immigrant visas in Beirut. After nearly 19 years of having to travel to Damascus or Nicosia, the Lebanese can now apply for visas at home - and hundreds are doing so. I have just returned from a seven city tour of the United States to promote investment in Lebanon among Americans of Lebanese heritage, and I am pleased to report that many Americans are eager and willing to support Lebanon's economic revival.

"In September, we will host the first-ever US Trade Fair in Beirut to promote American environmental and energy products and services. The Agency for International Development is working in over one thousand projects across Lebanon to expand economic opportunity, strengthen good governance and improve environmental practices.

"We welcome Lebanon's continued cooperation in fighting terrorism and trafficking in persons... Our Office of Defence Cooperation continues critical cooperation with the United Nations and the Lebanese Armed Forces in de-mining assistance for south Lebanon. We are also committed to expanding our training relationship with the Lebanese Armed Forces".

In addition, Battle also said Lebanese businessmen had good opportunities awaiting them in Iraq, noting that "there are multiple prospects for new business opportunities in reconstruction and trade. Lebanon's highly educated and commercially savvy population is perfectly positioned to benefit from all these new initiatives".

Referring to the political issues, the ambassador said Washington intended to work together with Beirut to expand democratisation, speed judicial reform and promote privatisation. If energetically pursued, and this might depend on how enthusiastically the Hariri government supports the US in the war against terrorism, these plans will have a direct impact on the domestic political situation.

For its part, the Lebanese government's response to US concerns regarding terrorism has been somewhat positive, although still far from being fully to American satisfaction. On Sept. 23, 2001, US President Bush issued an executive order freezing the assets of 27 individuals and organizations and called upon other governments to follow suit. One group in this list was Usbat Al Ansar, a militant Islamist formation based in the Ain Al Hilweh camp, which the US said was getting money from the Al Qaida network.

On Oct. 12, the American government released an additional list of 39 individuals, including three Lebanese nationals: Imad Mughniyah, Hassan Izzidine, and Ali Atwi. For some time, Mughniyah was discussed in the Western media as being equally as capable as Osama Bin Ladin of masterminding the Sept. 11 attacks. He is alleged to have masterminded the June 1985 hijacking of TWA Flight 847, during which US navy diver Robert Stethem was murdered. He is also believed to be responsible for planning the 1983 truck bombing of the US Marine barracks in Beirut which killed 241 servicemen, as well the abduction of several American civilians in Lebanon during the 1980s.

The have so far authorities focused mainly on preventing Islamists in the country from creating an atmosphere of instability, on the one hand, concerned that it might keep away foreign investors in an already unstable atmosphere. The local media reported that the government had warned anti-American groups in the country that the security forces would respond "with an iron fist" to any provocations. According to a report in L'Orient Le Jour in October 2001: "Officials have told these groups that any outburst would mainly serve the interests of the Israeli enemy" and provide it with "pretext to strike Lebanon and Syria".