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LEADING INDICATORS UP IN DECEMBER

 SAN DIEGO, Calif., Feb. 15 /PRNewswire/ -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.4 percent in December. Three components -- initial claims for unemployment insurance, new defense orders, and the national economy -- were strongly positive during the month. These positive outweighed large decreases in building permits and tourism and a slight decrease in local stock prices. Building permits and local stock prices have now fallen for eight and seven consecutive months, respectively, while the month to month trend in tourism turned negative for the first time in eight months.
 December's increase was the strongest move in the index since February. It may indicate that the economy of San Diego County could bottom out in the latter half of 1993. Caution should be exercised, though, since December's increase, although strong, was just for one month. Several more months of positive news would be needed to verify the trend. And even if a bottom is confirmed, the strength of any recover is uncertain.
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators 0.4 percent
 The index for San Diego County that
 includes the components listed
 below (December)
 Source: University of San Diego
 Building Permits (1.44 percent)
 Residential units authorized
 by building permits in San Diego
 County, estimated (December)
 Source University of San Diego
 Unemployment Insurance 1.34 percent
 Initial claims for unemployment
 insurance in San Diego County,
 Inverted (December)
 Source: Employment Development Department
 Stock Prices (0.25 percent)
 San Diego Stock Exchange Index (December)
 Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
 Tourism (1.12 percent)
 An index of tourist activity in San Diego
 County (December)
 Source: San Diego Conventions & Visitors Bureau
 New Defense Goods Orders 1.25 percent
 Manufacturers' new orders for
 defense products nationally (December)
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 National Economy 2.54 percent
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators (December)
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 December's increase put the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 115.0, up from November's revised reading of 114.5. Revised figures for various components caused November's previously reported change of 0.1 percent to be adjusted downward to unchanged. The monthly fluctuations of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year are given below:
 Index Percent Change
 1991 Dec. 114.0 (0.8)
 1992 Jan. 115.3 1.1
 Feb. 116.1 0.7
 Mar. 115.9 (0.2)
 April 115.8 (0.1)
 May 115.7 (0.1)
 June 115.4 (0.2)
 July 115.1 (0.3)
 Aug. 114.9 (0.2)
 Sept. 114.6 (0.3)
 Oct. 114.5 (0.1)
 Nov. 114.5 (0.0)
 Dec. 115.0 0.4
 Subject to revision
 For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators or the activities of the University's Economic Research Group, call the contact below:
 -0- 2/15/93
 /CONTACT: Professor Alan Gin, School of Business Administration of the University of San Diego, 619-260-4883, or fax, 619-260-4891/


CO: University of San Diego ST: California IN: SU: ECO

LR-TS -- NY013 -- 6538 02/15/93 12:41 EST
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Date:Feb 15, 1993
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