LAVA MAN'S FOES NOT WEAKER.Byline: KEVIN MODESTI HORSE RACING ARCADIA - Before we get too far in the debate over Lava Man's chances at the Breeders' Cup, let's bury a popular national misconception about the gelding who will carry the Western banner for horse racing's championship event. The insinuation INSINUATION, civil law. The transcription of an act on the public registers, like our recording of deeds. It was not necessary in any other alienation, but that appropriated to the purpose of donation. Inst. 2, 7, 2; Poth. Traite des Donations, entre vifs, sect. 2, art. 3, Sec. from back East is that Lava Man has beat up on modest California competition in the win streak that grew to seven races with his victory in Saturday's Goodwood Handicap at Santa Anita. Out here, they say: Modest compared to what? ``Put together a list of all the horses Lava Man has beaten over the course of the year, and it's a pretty impressive list,'' said Dan Hendricks, trainer of Brother Derek, who second by 2 1/4 lengths in the Goodwood. ``Brother Derek, Perfect Drift ... he's been winning for so long, I can't remember who the hell he's beat.'' It's all relative It's All Relative is an ABC sitcom about a man who dates the adoptive daughter of a gay couple, which forces their very different families to learn to coexist. Overview , so check out how the horses who have finished second and third to Lava Man stack up against the horses who have chased Bernardini and Invasor, the top New York-based horses heading for the Nov. 4 Breeders' Cup Classic The Breeders' Cup Classic is a Grade 1 Weight for Age thoroughbred horse race for 3 years old and older run at a distance of 1¼ miles (2012 m) on dirt. It is held annually at a different racetrack in the United States or Canada as part of the Breeders' Cup. at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Not to oversimplify o·ver·sim·pli·fy v. o·ver·sim·pli·fied, o·ver·sim·pli·fy·ing, o·ver·sim·pli·fies v.tr. To simplify to the point of causing misrepresentation, misconception, or error. v.intr. , but if Lava Man's victims are weaker than Bernardini's and Invasor's, then Lava Man's will have been running slower, and the difference will be reflected in speed ratings, such as the Daily Racing Form's Beyer figures, which take into account times and track conditions. Look at Lava Man. He won the Sunshine Millions Classic The Sunshine Millions Classic is a race for thoroughbred horses held in January at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California or at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida. Half the eight races of the Sunshine Millions are run at one track and half at the other. , Santa Anita Handicap The Santa Anita Handicap is an American Thoroughbred horse race held annually in the late winter at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. It is a Grade I race for horses three years old and up, and is considered the most important race for older horses in North America during , Khaled Stakes, Whittingham Handicap, Hollywood Gold Cup The Hollywood Gold Cup is a Grade I stakes race for thoroughbred horses inaugurated in 1938 at Hollywood Park Racetrack in Inglewood, California. It was run as a handicap race until 1997 when it was switched to weight-for-age conditions. , Pacific Classic and Goodwood in his streak. The second-place horses were Whos Crying Now, Magnum, Cheroot cheroot (shər  t`): see cigar and cigarette. , King's Drama, Ace Blue, Good Reward and Brother Derek. Third were Texess, Wilko, Super Strut, Red Fort, Super Frolic, Super Frolic again and Giacomo. The second horses' Beyer figures for those races have been (by my math, so some numbers could be off by a point) 95, 112, 94, 102, 109, 105 and 105. The third horses' have been 93, 102, 94, 99, 108, 104 and 104. The average of the above is 101.9. More important, the average for the four most recent races is 104.5. Now, look at Bernardini, the 3-year-old. His stakes streak covers the Withers, Preakness, Jim Dandy and Travers against 3-year-olds and Saturday's Jockey Club Gold Cup The Jockey Club Gold Cup, established in 1919, is a prestigious thoroughbred flat race open to horses of either gender three-years-old and up. It is typically the main event of the fall meeting at Belmont Park, just as the Belmont Stakes is of the spring meeting and the Travers against elders. Second were Doc Cheney, Sweetnorthernsaint, Ministers Bid, Bluegrass Cat and Wanderin Boy. Third were Luxembourg, Hemingways Key, Hemingways Key again, Dr. Pleasure and Andromeda's Hero. The seconds' figures: 97, 105, 100, 105 and 108. The thirds': 95, 96, 100, 97 and 99. Average: 100.2. For the past four races, it's 101.3. Now, Invasor, the 4-year-old. His streak covers the Pimlico Special, Suburban and Whitney. Second were Wanderin Boy, Wild Desert and Sun King. Third were West Virginia, Andromeda's Hero and West Virginia again. The seconds' figures: 106, 105, 113. The thirds': 101, 104, 104. Average: 105.5. To review, the relevant averages for the horses running second and third to the Breeders' Cup Classic contenders are 104.5for Lava Man, 101.3 for Bernardini and 105.5 for Invasor (on the Beyer speed figure The Beyer Speed Figure is a system for rating the performance of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America designed in the early 1970s by Andrew Beyer, the syndicated horse racing columnist for The Washington Post. scale, one point equals about one-half length). Factor in that Lava Man's victims have carried more than three pounds per race more than Invasor's -- but more than fourpounds less than Bernardini's -- and the differences disappear. Maybe the conventional wisdom will change now that Lava Man has beaten a Santa Anita Derby The Santa Anita Derby is an American Grade 1 thoroughbred horse race for three-year-olds run each April at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California and carries a purse of $750,000. winner (Brother Derek) and Kentucky Derby winner (Giacomo) in the Goodwood. That's overdue, though California bettors might have wished the rest of the country held onto its misconceptions all the way to the Breeders' Cup betting windows. Bernardini (Javier Castellano riding) and Invasor (Fernando Jara) can beat Lava Man (Corey Nakatani) in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic. As long as we're talking about speed figures, both Easterners' winning ratings have been higher than the western hero's. There's any number of reasons why any of that trio can win the Classic. A meaningful edge in the ``strength of schedule'' department is not one of them. heymodesti(AT_SIGN)aol.com (818) 713-3616 CAPTION(S): box Box: OUT OF THE GATE - Kevin Modesti |
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