LATINO ELECTORATE ON THE RISE : VOTING NUMBERS PROJECTED TO HIT ALL-TIME HIGH IN NOVEMBER.

Byline: Yvette Cabrera Daily News Staff Writer

With increasing citizenship and voter registration, Latinos in California could reach a milestone on Election Day - supplying more than 10 percent of the ballots cast.

About 1.4 million Latinos are expected to vote in California on Nov. 5 - a 26 percent increase over their turnout in the 1992 presidential election.

If those projections bear out, Latinos would for the first time compose 10 percent of the electorate in California, according to the Claremont-based Tomas Rivera Center.

``Clearly there is going to be more votes. Every presidential election in the past 10 years has seen an all-time high of Latino voters,'' said Harry P. Pachon, president of the institute. ``This has the earmarks where you'll see an all-time high of Latino voters here in California.''

Those voters are being heavily courted by both the Republican and Democratic parties.

``The Latino vote is important for two reasons: Because it's big and because it's up for grabs - so both parties can do well if they make a substantial effort to reach them,'' said Republican campaign consultant Sal Russo, with Russo Marsh + Raper Inc. in Sacramento.

Analysts attribute the rise in Latino turnout to increased voter registration, more Latinos running for office, and emerging Latino political activism over such volatile issues as immigration and affirmative action.

Pachon also attributes the increase to a large adolescent Latino population that is reaching voting age, and more significantly to the skyrocketing number of Latinos becoming citizens.

``Latinos are the biggest percentage of naturalized citizens, so what you have are two streams feeding the Latino electorate that's higher than other racial and ethnic groups in America,'' Pachon said.

Nationwide, the number of citizenship applications received by the Immigration and Naturalization Service tripled to more than 1 million last year.

The Los Angeles district INS office has churned out new citizens at an unprecedented rate this year, with about 162,000 people naturalized since January - more than half of them Latino.

Nonetheless, Latino voters traditionally have not turned out in large numbers at the polls - while Latinos make up 25 percent of the state's population, for example, they are projected to compose only 10 percent of the voters on Election Day.

Assemblyman Louis Caldera, D-Los Angeles, predicted that more Latinos breaking into the middle class will translate into more political participation both at the ballot box and on the campaign trail.

``I would bet by 2002 we will have half a dozen statewide Latino candidates,'' Caldera said.

``Whether it's the mayor of Los Angeles, San Francisco or San Diego, you're going to see virtually every major office contested by some Latino candidate - that's part of the natural evolution.''

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Chart: THE LATINO VOTE IN CALIFORNIA

Bradford Mar/Daily New s