LABOR STORM BREWING ON NHL'S HORIZON IF NO DEAL REACHED BY SEPT. 15, OWNERS VOW TO SHUT DOWN PLAY.

Byline: Matt McHale Staff Writer

ST. PAUL, Minn. - During this afternoon's NHL All-Star Game, watch Pavel Datsyuk dance his way through traffic like he is the only player on the ice. Watch Ilya Kovalchuk take the league's hardest shot. Watch Rick Nash plant himself in front of the net and challenge veterans to keep him from scoring.

Watch the league's brightest young stars ... because they might be old the next time you get the chance.

The looming battle between the league's owners and players over a new collective-bargaining agreement is a snow cloud over this frigid city and is only expected to get worse.

If no deal is reached by Sept. 15 to restructure the NHL's financial future, owners have vowed to shut down the league, for perhaps a year or even two.

Kings owner Philip Anschutz, who claims to have lost $8 million to $10 million last year, has said he will sell his team if the next contract doesn't include real ``cost certainty.''

In the past 24 months, the NHL Players Association has told its union to prepare for a two-year layoff and gotten its members to sink a paycheck a year into a fund to withstand a long stalemate.

Some players have talked about joining a revived World Hockey Association, which operated during the 1970s. Others have talked about playing in Europe. And there is the sad reality that if a lockout lasts more than a year, fans might have seen the last of future Hall of Famers such as Brett Hull, Scott Stevens or Luc Robitaille.

``We're ready to battle if there has to be a battle, and that's something we've talked about among ourselves,'' Detroit defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom said after Saturday's All-Star workout. ``We've taken a strong stance since we started to talk about the upcoming collective-bargaining talks. Players are willing to wait to get a good deal for everyone. I don't think any player is selfish and wants to think about himself.''

The owners' biggest issue is implementing a salary cap perhaps as low as $35 million. Although that seems ludicrous to big-money teams such as the New York Rangers, who have an $80 million payroll, consider the bite that would put on the Kings, who seem to be a bare-bones club paying between $43 million to $48 million this season.

They point to escalating salaries in a league with dwindling attendance, shrinking television ratings and a $600 million TV contract ABC is trying to renew for far less money. The NHL's average salary of $1.7 million is the highest of the four major sports, and its TV contract is the smallest.

In Saturday's State of the Game speech, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said there will be little movement if the players association fails to realize the gravity of the problem.

``Until the union is ready and willing to acknowledge and address the economic problems we're having, the negotiations are not going to progress,'' Bettman said.

Players have watched owners pay huge salaries in the past few years and are skeptical of real financial problems. They are saying they will take 5 percent less and have agreed to a revenue-sharing plan in which richer teams would have to pay a luxury tax to smaller clubs if they pass a certain financial threshold.

Most new collective-bargaining agreements are hammered out at the 11th hour. What is scary about that is Sept. 15 comes just days before training camp is supposed to begin.

There are other issues on the table, including restructuring entry-level contracts to limit the kind of bonuses that forced the Edmonton Oilers to ship budding superstar Mike Comrie first to the Mighty Ducks, then to Philadelphia.

Comrie earned just more than $1 million in base salary last year but received more than $3 million in bonuses. This week, the financially strapped Pittsburgh Penguins sent 19-year-old goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury back to junior hockey rather than pay him a $3 million bonus he would get for appearing in 30 games.

But clearly the biggest hurdle is the salary cap.

Under a new system, the old salaries paid stars such as the New York Rangers' Jaromir Jagr ($11 million) and even journeymen such as Martin Lapointe ($5 million) will be cut drastically. But unions are rarely in the business of giving back salaries.

Owners are expected to scale back payrolls even before a new collective-bargaining agreement is reached. According to the union, 80 percent of players' contracts expire after this season.

The Kings, for example, have just less than $20 million owed to players beyond July 1. The biggest are Aaron Miller ($8 million), Mattias Norstrom ($4 million) and Roman Cechmanek ($3.5 million). Jason Allison ($8 million this season) and Ziggy Palffy ($7 million) will be unrestricted free agents. Martin Straka is owed $4.7 million next year, but the Penguins agreed to pick up half when they traded him Nov. 30.

One reason there is little room for a quick settlement is the debacle caused by the last collective-bargaining agreement, which forced the league to shut down for the first four months of the 1994-95 season.

The NHL now thinks that was a hasty time frame to work out a new deal and that the loopholes created have sent the salaries skyrocketing.

Part of the problem was the forming of four expansion teams since the last deal. The league wanted to get into warm-weather markets such as Nashville, Tenn., and Atlanta but did not realize the expansion fees paid existing teams would prompt spending sprees.

When the expansion fees were gone, clubs were still on the hook for long- term contracts they had little way of paying.

A revived WHA claims it will set a payroll limit of $10 million, with an exemption for two marquee players.

Europe also is an option. Philadelphia's Jeremy Roenick and Dallas' Scott Young played briefly in Germany during the last work stoppage. So did Detroit's Chris Chelios, but he tore up a knee in Switzerland.

For now, there is the rest of this season, the playoffs and the World Cup, a tournament played every four years that ends during the second week of September.

Not a lot of hockey. That's why it's important to watch Nash, Datsyuk and Kovalchuk play their first All-Star Games today. It is uncertain when their next one will be.

Matt McHale, [phone]

matt.mchale(at)dailynews.com

CAPTION(S):

2 photos

Photo:

(1 -- color) - Gary Bettman

NHL commissioner

Jim Mone/Associated Press

(2) Detroit defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom, right, said the players are ready to take on management over a new collective-bargaining agreement.

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press