LA NINA FUELING CHANCES OF FIRE.

Byline: Steve Carney and Lisa Van Proyen Daily News Staff Writers

The unusually dry, warm weather La Nina thrust on Southern California has left wild lands primed for winter brush fires - like the one that scorched Porter Ranch during the weekend.

And unless some rain unexpectedly shows up, experts warn that residents should expect more large blazes in the coming months and a fearsome 1999 fire season.

``This is going to be very, very, very bad if we stay in this drought condition,'' said Scott Franklin, an urban wild-land fire consultant in Newhall. ``This is going to be dynamite.''

The rain torrents from last year's El Nino storms created an explosion of new greenery. But the warm, dry weather that La Nina has extended into the winter turned that vegetation into tinder covering the hillsides.

``Even with cool temperatures, all you need is a dry day and you begin to have containment problems'' if a fire starts, Franklin said.

However, strict brush-clearing programs in the city and county helped keep the Porter Ranch fire - measured at 470 acres - away from any structures, said Capt. Paul Quagliata, head of the Los Angeles Fire Department's brush-clearance unit.

``This time of year we usually slack off brush clearing. But it usually is raining,'' he said.

Warm air holds more moisture, so that's why more rain resulted from El Nino, which is characterized by warmer than normal water in the equatorial Pacific. And the opposite is true during cooler-water La Nina conditions.

``Usually, we're already out of the fire season,'' added Los Angeles County fire Inspector Henry Rodriguez, but the high temperature and low humidity is worsening the fire danger.

``Because of the time of year, you'd think it would be over, but it's not,'' said Rodriguez.

More than 375 firefighters from Ventura County, and the Los Angeles and county fire departments fought the Porter Ranch blaze, which was 100 percent contained and 90 percent extinguished Monday, Rodriguez said.

Officials expected to have it doused completely by today, he said.

No one was hurt and no structures burned. The cause remains under investigation, but arson is not suspected, Rodriguez said.

Herb Spitzer, assistant chief in the county Fire Department's forestry division, said he's seen fire season extended into the winter months before, but conditions this year are especially worrisome.

``We've had warm weather before, plus winds, but the fuel moistures are so low for this time of year,'' he said.

``There's no month in the year that Southern California is immune from wildfires,'' he added.

Every month since 1919 the county has had a fire of 100 acres or more. The Porter Ranch fire was just the second in any January during that span.

``When we get these little dry episodes like this, we need to expect fires, so we need to gear up,'' Franklin said.

Under such conditions, firefighting agencies need to coordinate what their responses will be and push for brush clearance.

``It's just not enough to run suppression forces out there. What will happen as we move further into the year, we won't have just one little fire. So then you have competition for hand crews, air units, bulldozers, everything. That's not a prediction, it's a fact. That's what's happened historically.''

In December 1988, a 500-acre fire burned 12 houses as firefighters had to contend with four other blazes in Los Angeles County at the same time.

In 1970, when the worst brush fire in county history charred more than 130,000 acres, crews were battling 10 others, said Franklin, a former vegetation management officer with the county Fire Department.

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PHOTO Fire officials say La Nina, the follow-up weather condition to El Nino, helped create conditions for the Porter Ranch blaze.

Hans Gutknecht/Daily News