LA NINA FORECAST IS MILD, NOT WILD.

Byline: David R. Baker Daily News Staff Writer

After a year of bizarre and destructive weather brought by El Nino, Los Angeles might face a mild fall and winter courtesy of the weather phenomenon's drier twin - La Nina, forecasters said Wednesday.

Speaking at a meeting of disaster planning experts in Burbank, scientists said La Nina - in many ways El Nino's opposite - should bring Southern California typical winter temperatures and a little less rain than normal.

``You're going to get a breather this winter,'' said Ants Leetmaa, director of the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. ``People worried that their houses were going to slide down the hill can breathe a little easier.''

Other parts of the country, however, might not fare so well. La Nina could bring Florida a dry spring, potentially kindling a new rash of forest fires like those that plagued the state earlier this summer. And Texas, where a devastating drought was recently broken by heavy rain, could turn dry again.

``People there need to be putting this in the back of their minds, saying, Hey, we haven't had rain in a while, this could last,'' Leetmaa said.

Since May, forecasters have watched the current La Nina condition building in the Pacific Ocean, while the remains of El Nino slowly fade.

The two form opposite ends of the same climate cycle, a constant play between ocean temperatures and the atmosphere. El Nino is fueled by unusually warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific - La Nina, by cold.

Both phenomena have the power to change weather across the globe, flooding some regions while choking others with drought. In Southern California, El Nino usually brings more rain than normal while La Nina brings less.

If projections hold, the current La Nina will lack the strength of the El Nino that is just ending, the most powerful on record. In some parts of the country, Leetmaa said, the effects of this moderate La Nina will be difficult to spot.

``This La Nina is more of a middle-of-the-road kind of thing.''

In others areas, however, the changes could be pronounced, especially when compared to last year. After enjoying a balmy winter brought on by El Nino, the upper Midwest likely will see cold temperatures and above-average precipitation during the first months of 1999. The Southwest, meanwhile, will be hotter and drier than it was last winter.

While Southern California probably will see less rain than normal, central and northern parts of the state could have increased rainfall between October and December, then dry out in January, according to the Weather Service.

The Weather Service's predictions came even as El Nino continues its slow dissipation in the Pacific, parts of which are still warmer than normal.

Betsy Morse, meteorologist in charge of the service's Sacramento office, said El Nino's remnants may even have helped bring last week's unusual rain to Los Angeles by allowing tropical moisture connected with a Pacific hurricane to stray farther north than normal.

``We have El Nino and La Nina - it's an unusual time,'' she said.