L.A. takes the quake.

The impact of the Jan. 17, 1994 earthquake that rocked Los Angeles may well prove to be more than an early-morning wake-up. Certainly, the 6.8 Northridge temblor should send a message to all of Los Angeles to regroup, recover and rebound. While these efforts are underway, the Los Angeles Basin must, however, focus the national and international spotlight on the positive aspects that have arisen from what some experts are calling the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

In fact, the earthquake won't be as detrimental to Los Angeles as some television images would lead the world to believe. Despite physical damage which ranged from severe to minimal throughout the Los Angeles Basin, information gained from previous natural disasters indicate that the Northridge earthquake can be the catalyst for creating positive impacts on the Los Angeles economy.

Already numerous bright spots are evident throughout the basin. These "silver linings" include the swift response by Caltrans to repair damaged freeways, the extension and expansion of Metrolink commuter train service, the emergence of telecommuting, the extension of services by one of the primary sources of commuter information and programs for employers, and the recent announcement of a new FHA 100-percent loan program for earthquake victims.

Adding to the improving picture in Los Angeles is a recent informal survey of housing projects indicating that the economic recovery may have started sooner than expected. When combined with politicians and other governmental officials' renewed and eager motivation for improvement, clearly the opportunity has presented itself for a more vibrant economic recovery in Los Angeles than was predicted prior to the earthquake.

ECONOMIC AID

Much of the positive news in the Los Angeles basin economy can be linked to the infusion of approximately $14.4 billion in federal and state economic aid and insurance money disbursements, the effects of which are expected to become evident in the second half 1994 and extend into 1995 and perhaps even into 1996. It is estimated that the basin will enjoy the creation of 34 service sector jobs for every million dollars in earthquake aid it receives. Viewed another way, for every million in aid, Los Angeles will see 23 new construction jobs, with eight in building, and the remaining jobs in other services such as the manufacturing of materials.

Using conservative econometric models, the UCLA Business Forecasting Project's analogy approach estimates an increase of 36,000 jobs by the third quarter of 1994 and a drop in the unemployment rate by two full percentage points in Los Angeles.

Another study by Regional Financial Associates, a West Chester, PA, economic consulting firm, predicts That 127,000 jobs will be created during the recovery period -- a figure the firm says is 85,000 more jobs than if the earthquake had not occurred. Either way, it points to Los Angeles moving forward with the recovery process.

TRANSPORTATION AND FREEWAYS

After the 500-mile freeway system was severed in 11 places and millions of commuters were displaced, the need to develop transportation systems that provide residents with access to shopping, entertainment, recreation and places of employment became glaringly apparent.

In just a short period of time, the California Department of Transportation proved responsive in repairing damaged freeways. Their efforts were aided greatly by Governor Pete Wilson's Executive Order, signed several days after the earthquake, which enabled Caltrans to expedite the awarding of $54.1 million in contracts after the quake.

This decision drastically reduced the amount of time normally required to conduct studies, prepare Environmental Impact Reports, and enact the bid process. Working around-the-clock, seven-days-a-week, with contract bonus/penalties of as much as $200,000 per day, demolition of damaged freeways, installation of new temporary car-pool lanes, and successfully rerouting commuters has helped to get Los Angeles moving again. The earthquake may have caused changes in the daily commutes, but the result is people now are more accepting of alternative modes of transportation and ways of conducting business.

METROLINK

In the days following the Northridge earthquake, commuters across Los Angeles scrambled to find ways to return to work, some via car- or van-pool, some by bus and even some by airplane. Caltrans estimates that since the earthquake, Los Angeles freeway traffic had been reduced by about 10 percent.

One of the main alternative post-tremblor modes of transportation was Metrolink, the largest commuter railroad in Los Angeles. Metrolink experienced an outstanding three-fold systemwide ridership increase since the Northridge tremblor. As a result, the 15-month old commuter train system is now operating 75 trains over more than 250 miles of tracks with service provided along four routes.

In the month following the disaster, a total of 60 miles of new track, 14 new trains and seven stations had been added. First-time service was introduced to the Antelope Valley just four days following the earthquake, and Metrolink expanded service to the Santa Clarita Valley, Camarillo and Northridge.

In addition to the Antelope Valley receiving seven new trains and two new stations in Palmdale and Lancaster, another new stop was added at Vincent Grade/Acton, where a Seabees naval mobile construction unit built the station in four days. By comparison, Metrolink estimates that in a normal time frame, a station typically would take three to six months to construct.

Metrolink transported a record number of passengers in the ensuing weeks after the earthquake, with total Metrolink ridership hitting 26,750 with the Antelope Valley extension accounting for 17,850 riders. One month after the disaster struck, the transportation agency reported that they had carried nearly a half-a-million commuters and ridership on the system had nearly doubled. The Santa Clarita line with extended service to the Antelope Valley experienced an 800 percent increase. Ridership on the Ventura County line increased 30 percent since the earthquake and has held firm, indicating that service was needed.

COMMUTER SERVICES

Another positive impact for commuters was the infusion of approximately a half of a million dollars in FEMA funds to Commuter Transportation Services to extend its services. Commuter Transportation Services assists employers in finding solutions to their transportation issues by providing such services as Transportation Demand Management products, on-site technical assistance for implementing transportation programs, publication of transportation guides and itineraries, and organization of van-pools. Some of their programs may have died or been reduced because of a lack of funding however, through an infusion of this FEMA money, most of their services are being expanded to assist both large and smaller companies.

TELECOMMUTING

The acceptance of telecommuting, or operating out of a home office or satellite office, by Los Angeles-area companies was also accelerated by earthquake's slowing down of vehicular transportation avenues. More than $10 million has been earmarked from the U.S. Commerce Department, local and federal transportation funds to expand and encourage telecommuting.

In the weeks after the earthquake, communications companies in Los Angeles began offering telecommuting packages that included free installation of phone lines and in some cases the loan of personal computers and ancillary equipment. Prime examples of how business have responded to the demands of the quake are the telecommuting centers opened and expanded in Valencia and the Antelope Valley.

The benefits are manifold. In addition to being a viable solution for companies to maintain productivity post-earthquake, telecommuting also assists employers in meeting stringent South Coast Air Quality Management District regulations.

In addition, employees who work closer to home or work at home, tend to be more productive, happier, spend more quality time with family and friends, and less time commuting.

HOME SALES INCREASES

The short-term impact of the earthquake on area housing was expected to be less positive as real estate market values were sorted out and evaluated, causing a temporary drop in home sales activity. However, six weeks following the disaster, that has proved to be a fallacy. In fact, a new FHA-100 percent financing program, FHA 203(h), was announced recently for those who can prove they have been displaced because of the earthquake. The program raised the limit of FHA-sponsored financing up to $203,150, thereby making it easier to purchase a home for many, and as a result home sales are beginning to climb more quickly than expected.

In early March, a survey of nearly 40 of the best selling home communities in the Antelope Valley revealed that in some instances sales to earthquake victims amounted to as much as 50 to 60 percent of homes sold. Since the earthquake, the majority of projects surveyed in the Antelope Valley reported significant 15 to 20 percent increases in walk-throughs and as much as 40 to 50 percent increases in home sales over previous months. One of the largest builders reported a one-week sales total of 25 homes, a 30 to 40 percent increase over the previous month.

Numerous sales were attributed to the new FHA program that benefitted home buyers wanting to relocate away from the heavily damaged San Fernando Valley and had the opportunity to take advantage of more affordable homes in the Antelope Valley. The sentiment reported by sales agents after a recent weekend of showing models was that as people continue to reorganize their lives, more buyers and businesses are expected to move to the Antelope Valley, where the perceived price to value ratio is higher. In addition to being farther away from the Northridge epicenter, new residents are being drawn to the Antelope Valley because it offers a unique rural quality of life, more affordable housing opportunities, a wide range of housing choices, large amounts of open space, clean air, reduced congestion, a lower crime rate, and thanks to the earthquake, easier commutes via the earthquake-accelerated installation of Metrolink. Recent population studies showed that approximately 75 percent of those people moving to the Antelope Valley relocated from the San Fernando Valley.

RENEWED POLITICAL COOPERATION

Politicians have been affected in a positive way, too, and this is a benefit to all within their jurisdictions. Government leaders such as Antelope Valley Assemblyman William J. "Pete" Knight, Los Angeles County Supervisor Michael Antonovich, Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, officials from FEMA, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and others, have exhibited a renewed sense of cooperative energy that's helped to cut through bureaucratic layers of red tape in record time.

While serving as valuable conduits of information to Washington, D.C., leaders in Los Angeles assisted in obtaining the largest disaster aid package ever adopted. Officials' responsiveness also is evident on a more grassroots level as they have expedited the delivery of vital services such as water and medicine, and emergency tents for displaced victims.

Another excellent example of how quickly public servants responded was the efforts by transportation officials who succeeded in obtaining unprecedented train service for harried commuters in the Antelope Valley where the 14 Freeway had collapsed, and the expansion of services to other areas such as Camarillo, Northridge and Santa Clarita. Service to the Antelope Valley was not scheduled to occur for several more years.

The long-term result is a more business-friendly environment that seeks to fix what is wrong and improve the system. That attitude sends a powerful message to businesses, encouraging growth and making Los Angeles more attractive to new businesses.

Once a focus returns to the long list of golden reasons for which people came to Los Angeles -- its palm trees, sandy beaches, world-class museums and restaurants, skiing and surfing, spectacular hiking and horse riding trails, scenic mountain vistas, and enough sun to satisfy citrus growers and sun worshipers alike.

Peter Wenner is the general manager of Ritter Ranch, a 10,625-acre master-planned community, which is the largest project under active development in Los Angeles County. See the related story in this issue regarding recently unveiled plans for the development.