L.A. in the year 2019.Futurists Have a Bad Track Record - Just Look at Vance At Vance is a German Power Metal/ Neoclassical metal band. They were formed by vocalist Oliver Hartmann (ex-Centers) and guitarist Olaf Lenk (ex-Velvet Viper) in 1998. Biography Packard's Predictions in 1979 - But That Won't Stop Us From Forecasting What the City Will Look Like 20 Years From Now Twenty years TWENTY YEARS. The lapse of twenty years raises a presumption of certain facts, and after such a time, the party against whom the presumption has been raised, will be required to prove a negative to establish his rights. 2. from now, Angelenos will own flying cars, live in domed communities with purified air, and be legally required to wear suntan lotion suntan lotion sun n → lotion f or lait m solaire suntan lotion sun n → Sonnenmilch f . Just kidding. Futurist predictions often come off looking ridiculous under the cold light of the present day. They tend to be overly dramatic in some areas (where are those flying cars that prognosticators in the 1950s said would be here by now?) or glaring in their oversight in others. (If forecasters had been more accurate, earthquake retrofitting might have been a much bigger industry before 1994.) While predictions are often carefully rooted in trend analysis and statistics, they also are inevitably tinged with gut instincts and wishful thinking wishful thinking Psychology Dereitic thought that a thing or event should have a specified outcome . The end result is that readers in 2019 may very well laugh over any predictions made now, just as Vance Packard's 1979 predictions make us snicker as we near 2001. A paradoxical future Disclaimers aside, the L.A. of 2019 will embody a paradox. It will be an evolving city that is at once geographically, professionally and demographically disparate - and increasingly unified. An additional 6.7 million people will call Southern California Southern California, also colloquially known as SoCal, is the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. Centered on the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego, Southern California is home to nearly 24 million people and is the nation's second most populated region, home by then, the population equivalent of 'adding two cities file size of Chicago, according to according to prep. 1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians. 2. In keeping with: according to instructions. 3. research done by the Southern California Association of Governments. In L.A. County, Latinos will have been the largest ethnic group for about 20 years, and they will continue to lengthen their lead. The Asian community also will keep growing, swelled by a combination of immigration immigration, entrance of a person (an alien) into a new country for the purpose of establishing permanent residence. Motives for immigration, like those for migration generally, are often economic, although religious or political factors may be very important. and natural birth rates. L.A.'s African Americans will constitute a largely stable percentage of the population. Whites will be a clear and shrinking minority, one that will simultaneously become more diverse as Armenian and Russian immigrants continue their influx. Yet the city known for its racial unease might not be a tinderbox tin·der·box n. 1. A metal box for holding tinder. 2. A potentially explosive place or situation: referred to the crowded prison as a tinderbox of suppressed violence. of racial tension. For that, we can thank in-law relationships. Yes, in-laws. Interracial in·ter·ra·cial adj. Relating to, involving, or representing different races: interracial fellowship; an interracial neighborhood. , also called "out-group," marriages will be commonplace. More interracial romances will bloom as workplaces, neighborhoods and cultural scenes become more heavily integrated. When families from different racial backgrounds find themselves tied by marriage, distrust and stereotypical misperceptions tend to ease. "With the greater number of out-group marriages, the Los Angeles Los Angeles (lôs ăn`jələs, lŏs, ăn`jəlēz'), city (1990 pop. 3,485,398), seat of Los Angeles co., S Calif.; inc. 1850. environment will be more racially tolerant," says Fernando Guerra, director of Loyola Marymount University's Center for the Study of Los Angeles. "Angelenos will be more understanding, especially during the holidays when the different branches of family come together. It's a lot less likely that L.A. will have race riots This is a list of race riots by country. Australia
Housing the masses To house the city's swelling and shifting population, dwelling places will undergo a Wyoming-meets-Manhattan phenomenon. The city's suburban expansion will continue, with more open space in outlying areas swept up by development. The Newhall Ranch and Valencia area will be major residential and business epicenters, and the Ojai and San Gabriel valleys will be more heavily populated. Downtown Los Angeles Downtown Los Angeles is the central business district of Los Angeles, California, located close to the geographic center of the metropolitan area. The sprawling, multi-centered megacity is such that its downtown core is often considered just another district like Hollywood or could turn out to be a major residential center, as busy inhabitants
The game is based loosely on the concepts from SameGame. hop from crowded restaurants to a concert at Disney Hall. There also will be pockets of housing designed to accommodate low-income families and to cater to now-elderly Baby Boomers See generation X. . "We're going to see a real birth of housing in the downtown core," said David Dale-Johnson, director of the real estate program at USC's Marshall School of Business The Marshall School of Business (also known as USC Marshall School of Business) is the business school at the University of Southern California. It is the largest of USC's 17 professional schools. The current Dean is James G. Ellis. . "It's going to be one of Los Angeles' many regional foci, so it won't become quite like Manhattan, but its growth is being driven by the theater, sports and business activity down there." Too much traffic With the combination of suburban sprawl, increasing urban density, decentralized de·cen·tral·ize v. de·cen·tral·ized, de·cen·tral·iz·ing, de·cen·tral·iz·es v.tr. 1. To distribute the administrative functions or powers of (a central authority) among several local authorities. business districts and a swelling population, LA. traffic will be even more of a nightmare in 2019 than it is today. The subway will be a white elephant White Elephant Any investment that nobody wants because it is unprofitable. Notes: The term 'White Elephant' is derived from Thailand, where an Albino (white) elephant was given to unfavored people by the ruler. . Because of its limited range and size, it will not attract enough riders to pay its operating costs, steadily draining the city's coffers and thus precluding investments needed to improve other public transit systems and highways. About 80 percent of L.A. commuters will still drive alone to work, and some freeways will be overwhelmingly clogged by an increased number of trucks on the road - more than 40,000 trucks are expected to crawl along Southern California's freeways, according to SCAG scag - To destroy the data on a disk, either by corrupting the file system or by causing media damage. Compare scrog, roach. research, more than double the number today. Under the best-case scenarios, cars will average a pace of less than 30 miles-an-hour on major freeways, and daily commute times will be double what they are now. In an effort to ease freeway congestion The condition of a network when there is not enough bandwidth to support the current traffic load. congestion - When the offered load of a data communication path exceeds the capacity. on the I-5, construction crews will end up snarling snarl 1 v. snarled, snarl·ing, snarls v.intr. 1. To growl viciously while baring the teeth. 2. To speak angrily or threateningly. v.tr. traffic even further to install a toll lane, as well as carpool car·pool n. also car pool 1. An arrangement whereby several participants or their children travel together in one vehicle, the participants sharing the costs and often taking turns as the driver. 2. lanes on a smattering of other freeways around town. Toll fees will escalate steadily to limit the number of cars using the pay-to-play lanes. While some forecasts pinpoint average highway speeds at below 15 miles an hour, it's unlikely things will ever get that bad. Many Angelenos will adjust rather than sitting in gridlock Gridlock A government, business or institution's inability to function at a normal level due either to complex or conflicting procedures within the administrative framework or to impending change in the business. . "People may choose to move closer to work, or move out of the area to avoid the heavy traffic," said Genevieve Giuliano, professor of urban planning and development at USC An abbreviation for U.S. Code. . "Businesses will do the same, since extreme congestion dampens corporate growth. Work arrangements will become more flexible. People can and will adjust." Paradoxically, traffic may get much worse, but L.A.'s air quality will continue to improve, largely due to stricter emission policies for tracks. Unfortunately, the city will still straggle strag·gle intr.v. strag·gled, strag·gling, strag·gles 1. To stray or fall behind. 2. To proceed or spread out in a scattered or irregular group. n. behind the rest of the county's clean air levels. L.A.'s skies will be just as congested con·gest·ed adj. Affected with or characterized by congestion. congested ENT adjective Referring to a boggy blood-filled tissue. See Nasal congestion. as its roads. Demand for air transit of both people and cargo will more than double over the next 20 years. Air cargo is expected to reach 8.9 million tons, and more than 157 million passengers will pass through the Southern California airports. Expansion plans for Los Angeles International Airport “LAX” redirects here. For other uses, see LAX (disambiguation). “KLAX” redirects here. For other uses, see KLAX (disambiguation). Los Angeles International Airport (IATA: LAX, ICAO: KLAX, FAA LID: LAX and the Burbank Airport could still be tied up in the courts in 2019. But faced with the possibility of losing the city's competitive edge in an increasingly global market, work is likely to get underway on a second international airport in the area. Economic mainstays L.A.'s proximity to the fast-growing Asian and Latin American markets, as well its large and growing Asian communities, will further stimulate international trade and finance. As L.A. reinforces its reputation as a business center on a global scale, some major corporate headquarters could start trickling back into town. But small businesses will still dominate the local economy, propelled by the opportunity they bring to enthusiastic and entrepreneurially spirited immigrants and minorities. Small businesses will remain the primary creators of job growth in L.A. The number of jobs in Southern California is expected to grow by 61 percent over the course of the next 20 years, bringing the total number to 10.6 million, according to SCAG research. The entertainment industry will keep its role as the city's once and future economic queen. In 2019, Hollywood will have brought the local new-media companies into its fold as they reshape how the studios do business. Consequently, the entertainment industry - with Internet companies tucked firmly under its wing - will be the town's single biggest generator of high wages. More importantly, the panic in Hollywood about losing its crown to Canada or even Australia will have died down by 2019. "Right now we're temporarily losing business to some markets, but the long-term growth of the overall market is so large that the local entertainment industry will continue to grow and continue to dominate the region," said Stephen Levy, director of the Palo Alto-based Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. Tourism will also remain a major component of the local economy, but L.A.'s reputation as a leading hotbed hotbed, low, glass-covered frame structure for starting tender plants. It differs from a cold frame only in that the soil is heated—either artificially as by underground electric wiring or steampipes, or naturally with partially fermented stable manure, which of manufacturing activity may be on its last legs, according to Levy. The cost of doing business in Los Angeles will simply be too high. Crisis in education Under mounting pressure to support the rising skill sets demanded of 21st century employees, the Los Angeles Unified School District The Los Angeles Unified School District (the "LAUSD") is the largest (in terms of number of students) public school system in California and the second-largest in the United States. Only the New York City Department of Education has a larger student population. system will be in utter disarray. By 2019, it's expected to be the nation's biggest school system. Bilingual education will become a de facto [Latin, In fact.] In fact, in deed, actually. This phrase is used to characterize an officer, a government, a past action, or a state of affairs that must be accepted for all practical purposes, but is illegal or illegitimate. norm as more students from non-English-speaking homes flood the system. The disarray, however, will stem mainly from reform efforts, which are not expected to fully mature within 20 years. After decades of trying to make the existing system work better, the LAUSD LAUSD Los Angeles Unified School District (Los Angeles, CA) board will recognize that only dramatic change can turn around the sagging schools. Instead of letting school districts splinter off, the LAUSD will instead choose to let teachers and administrators become more enterprising. Mirroring the entrepreneurial spirit that defines L.A.'s business environment, school programs will be formed by educators to attract students. "Seattle successfully allowed similar innovation within the system, where teachers and administrators worked to attract students," said Barry Stern, president of Public Performance Information Systems, a Santa Monica-based workforce development and educational consulting company. "Without results, you won't get the students and you don't get paid." The line between public and private sector will be further blurred as companies frustrated by the lack of qualified employees become active in the school system. "We may see businesses like Xerox and Motorola saying the schools are not producing the skills we need, we know we need employees, so we'll help set up an academy to get them ready for us and for life," Stern speculated. Government reforms The school district won't be the only government organization that reforms itself by empowering subgroups. The same thing will happen on the city level. Secessionist movements in the Valley and the Harbor area will have fizzled out after being stuck in the courts for years. Most of the secession supporters will have found solace in the neighborhood councils mandated under the reformed city charter. The faces of the City Council and the Los Angeles mayor will reflect the city's shifting demographics. A new, enthusiastic generation of African-American, Latino and Asian community leaders will have emerged, with many elected into office. "There will be much more of what we now call minority representation in the vote," said Xandra Kayden, head of the League of Women Voters League of Women Voters, voluntary public service organization of U.S. citizens. Organized in 1920 in Chicago as an outgrowth of the National American Woman Suffrage Association, it had as its original nucleus the leaders of the latter organization. in L.A. "We'll also see the old individual fiefdom fief·dom n. 1. The estate or domain of a feudal lord. 2. Something over which one dominant person or group exercises control: of leaders break down, with leaders needing to be able to move across barriers to amass support." The Business Journal asked: "What de you think Los Angeles win be like in 2019?" William Fulton Author "The Reluctant Metropolis: The Politics of Urban Growth in Los Angeles" In 20 years, Los Angeles will be more crowded, more diverse, more urban, and also more urbane. The culture in Los Angeles has come into its own in the last few years, and this will continue. In 20 years, Los Angeles will be like New York New York, state, United States New York, Middle Atlantic state of the United States. It is bordered by Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and the Atlantic Ocean (E), New Jersey and Pennsylvania (S), Lakes Erie and Ontario and the Canadian province of in terms of its significance to the country and to the world. It will be truly a global city, and it will probably be larger and economically more significant than New York. It will also be more crowded, and we'll see many more urban, pedestrian-oriented, high-quality residential neighborhoods Barbara Lazaroff Co-owner Spago Hopefully AIDS will be cured. With telephones and computers, people may be crazier or calmer. The restaurant business might be like "The Jetsons" (television show). People could be eating pills. I certainly hope not. Maybe we will have holographic See holographic storage. interiors in the restaurants that you can change when you want to. Joseph Magaddino Chairman, Department of Economics Cal State Long Beach We will not see a recession in the next 20 years like the one that we saw in the early 1990s. Our economy has undergone substantial structural changes and will continue to be much more diversified than it was. We will see an increasing dominance of the services sector and a less-dominant manufacturing sector. There will be a need for a much more aggressive approach to infrastructure issues as international trade continues to grow. For example, LOS Angeles International Airport will not be able to handle the increasing flow of goods and people, and the question is, where is the new airport going to be? Steven Sample President University of Southern California The U.S. News & World Report ranked USC 27th among all universities in the United States in its 2008 ranking of "America's Best Colleges", also designating it as one of the "most selective universities" for admitting 8,634 of the almost 34,000 who applied for freshman admission I think L.A. will further emerge as the capital city of the Pacific Rim. No other city can make claim to that title. We're also seeing cultural elements coming together in terms of people, because there is such a high rate of intermarriage in·ter·mar·ry intr.v. in·ter·mar·ried, in·ter·mar·ry·ing, in·ter·mar·ries 1. To marry a member of another group. 2. To be bound together by the marriages of members. 3. . The effects of that will be a bigger cultural emergence of different ethnicities - haltingly - in music, literature, art and film. That will also greatly affect education... I think and hope that in 20 years it will be impossible to graduate from high school without being reasonably fluent in two languages. Hugh Hetner Chairman Emeritus Playboy Enterprises Inc. As the workplace and home become one, a significant percentage of the population will forego traditional clothing altogether, dressing in comfortable pajamas pajamas Noun, pl US pyjamas pajamas npl (US) → pijama msg; piyama msg (LAM and even working from their beds. Classic films, new releases and all television shows will be viewable on demand, 24 hours a day. Men and women alike will remain attractive and sexually active decades longer than they have in the past. Joel Wachs City Councilman Other cities will be trying to duplicate our successful neighborhood council system. L.A.'s winning sports teams will play in arenas and stadiums without public subsidy. John Cushman President and Chief Executive Cushman Realty Corp. L.A. will be dominated by the Hispanic community and rightfully so. I can't imagine that they don't completely unlock the ballot box. We'll have a Hispanic mayor and police chief. I don't think anyone has any idea of the magnitude of the political power of LA., which will be dominant domestically and globally. Averi Torres Psychic Consultant in Malibu I feel there will be a female mayor in Los Angeles, but we're not going to have a female chief of police. Cyber-criminals will be the city's new pirates, and the level of cyber-crime is going to be mind-boggling. Stores and businesses are going to be alive 24 hours a day as the L.A. economy grows even more global. Hybrid electric and fuel-cell cars will be in place, and our air quality could become the best in the world since we're working so hard to develop standards. The validity of holistic health holistic health, n a concept in which concern for health requires a perspective of the individual as an integrated system rather than as a collection of parts and functions. care will be established. Jerry Hirshberg President Nissan Design International Inc. I stand on very unusual ground as a car designer who believes there is no such thing as reading the future. I don't think we guess the future, we make it. The most powerful aspect of thinking about what might be coming is thinking about what we want to do about L.A. The only folks I disagree with right now are the doomsayers. I sense growing strength in this city. After the racial tensions and those miserable years - those miserable summers the city went though - the city did not evaporate, did not crumble, which many people predicted. It is a city of surprise. God knows what the surprises will be, but they will surprise. RELATED ARTICLE: Leaders for the Next 20 Years? Who are going to be the movers and shakers around town in 2019? It's a tricky prediction, to put it mildly. Companies fold, merge and move. People change industries, burn out or retire young. It may be the main deal makers currently wowing Los Angeles, or it could be their children. That said, the following are some of the Angelenos who have made their presence known and top the odds for who's going to be shaping their industries 20 years from now. - Sara Fisher * Jason Bentley, director of artists & repertoire at Maverick Records, DJ at KCRW-FM 89.9 and KROQ-FM 106.7. The 29-year-old Bentley has helped shape the local music scene for years, primarily though his eclectic radio shows, earning a reputation as a trendsetter trend·set·ter n. One that initiates or popularizes a trend: "The Golden State, ever the trendsetter, reformed its property tax" New York. . He's a respected voice in the music industry, with the ability to make or break a band, and is seen as one of Maverick's main assets. * Keith Black, director of Cedars-Sinai Medical Center's neurological institute, founder of biotech company Medlennium Technologies and chairman of the neurosurgery neurosurgery /neu·ro·sur·gery/ (noor´o-sur?jer-e) surgery of the nervous system. neu·ro·sur·ger·y n. Surgery on any part of the nervous system. department at UC Irvine. Featured recently on the cover of Time magazine as a "hero of medicine," the 41-year-old neurosurgeon neurosurgeon a physician who specializes in neurosurgery. neurosurgeon A surgeon specialized in managing diseases of the brain, spine and peripheral nerves Meat & potatoes diseases Brain tumors, spinal cord disease Salary $245K + 15% bonus. is responsible for even further boosting Cedars' reputation. Currently working on developing a vaccine to prevent the recurrence of brain tumors, Black is being viewed by many experts as likely to find a cure for brain cancer in his lifetime. * Sky Dayton, chairman of EarthLink Network Inc. and partner at eCompanies. The 27-year-old lifelong computer junkie junkie Popular health A popular term for a person, usually an IV narcotic abusing addict, whose life is disorganized vis-á-vis family and societal structure, whose existence revolves around obtaining–often through theft, prostitution or other illicit founded and guided one of the nation's fastest-growing Internet access providers over the last half decade. Now Dayton is looking to share his insight and experience with others, and just recently co-founded the Santa Monica-based Internet incubator, eCompanies. Odds are that eCompanies eventually will become as integral to L.A.'s tech scene as Bill Gross' Pasadena incubator, Idealab. * Michael De Luca, production chief at New Line Cinema. The 33-year-old head of New Line, a studio owned by Time Warner Inc., has earned a reputation as Hollywood's brilliant bad boy. Called hip, gutsy, wild and creative, Brooklyn-born De Luca has guided New Line to make both critically acclaimed films ("Boogie Nights," "Wag the Dog") and popular moneymakers ("Rush Hour," "The Wedding Singer"). Having spent his entire professional career at New Line after joining as an 18-year-old intern, he may still rule the roost in 20 years. * Jamie LeFrak, project manager at TrizecHahn Development Corp. The 25-year-old is managing the hotel component of TrizecHahn's Hollywood & Highland project, one of the largest retail-entertainment developments under construction in Southern California. Born and raised in a prominent New York real estate family, LeFrak intends to become a developer in his own right and has said that his 20-year plan is to build a city of his own. * Toby Lenk, president of eToys. The 36-year-old head of the online toy retailer is called a pillar in L.A's burgeoning tech industry. A Harvard MBA MBA abbr. Master of Business Administration Noun 1. MBA - a master's degree in business Master in Business, Master in Business Administration and former Walt Disney Co. executive, Lenk led eToys out of the Idealab gates at a dead run. The company grew rapidly, had a meteoric me·te·or·ic adj. 1. Of, relating to, or formed by a meteoroid. 2. Of or relating to the earth's atmosphere. 3. initial public stock offering and dominates its niche. Acquaintances say that Lenk is a true entrepreneurial spirit and is likely to eventually leave eToys to try his hand at building more Internet success stories. * Laurie McCartney, president and chief executive of e-Style Inc. The 31-year-old heads a rapidly up-and-coming online retailer targeted at women. McCartney and her management team caught the eye of the downtown venture capital firm Zone Ventures, which believes that McCartney's e-commerce company has an incredibly rosy future. McCartney is also a Walt Disney Co. alumna, where she worked in the strategic planning department * Margaret Midgett, partner and creative assistant at TBWA TBWA Tampa Bay WorkForce Alliance (Florida) TBWA The Big What Adventure TBWA Texas Bottled Water Association TBWA Tampa Bay Water Authority (Florida) TBWA Tiny Bubbles With Attitude Chiat/Day. The 30-year-old is getting groomed at the side of Lee Clow, the advertising agency's renowned creative chief. Midgett contributed to the agency's multiple award-winning Apple Computer "Think Different" campaign when not even part of the creative team. Midgett worked her way no from joining TBWA Chiat/Day in 1993 as a switchboard operator after graduating from Cal State Long Beach * Rick Newman, principal and senior vice president at Lowe Enterprises. The 35-year-old heads up development projects throughout Los Angeles for Lowe. The privately held Lowe has $225 million worth of development in the pipeline throughout Southern California, and Newman is actively scouting for even more development and acquisition opportunities. Described as not yet having a big name outside of local real estate circles, it will only be a matter of time. * Alex Padilla, Los Angeles City Council  The Los Angeles City Council is the governing body of the City of Los Angeles, California, United States. member, 7th District. At
26, the newcomer to the City Council is just starting what is being
viewed as a long political career. When he runs into City Council term
limits in 2009, he'll be the most senior member eligible - and
expected to run for Los Angeles mayor. Before winning his election,
Padilla was district director for state Assemblyman Tony Cardenas.
* Scott Sassa president of NBC NBC in full National Broadcasting Co. Major U.S. commercial broadcasting company. It was formed in 1926 by RCA Corp., General Electric Co. (GE), and Westinghouse and was the first U.S. company to operate a broadcast network. Entertainment. The 39-year-old television executive, who earlier this year was given the task of reviving the flagging network, likely won't be at NBC in 20 years, but he'll be at the top of the entertainment industry/somewhere. (Barry Diller once said that firing Sassa was one of his worst mistakes.) A native Angeleno and USE dropout (1) On magnetic media, a bit that has lost its strength due to a surface defect or recording malfunction. If the bit is in an audio or video file, it might be detected by the error correction circuitry and either corrected or not, but if not, it is often not noticed by the human . Sassa's resume includes abruptly terminated stints as president of Turner Entertainment and as head of the then start-up Fox Broadcasting. * Casey Wasserman, chief operating officer Chief Operating Officer (COO) The officer of a firm responsible for day-to-day management, usually the president or an executive vice-president. of Wasserman Foundation and owner of LA.'s arena football franchise. The Avengers. The 25-year-old grandson of Hollywood mogul Lew Wasserman is working hard to live up to his family name. He's responsible for investment and grant-making activities at his family trust, the Wasserman Foundation. And as the sole owner of me new football franchise, he's overseeing every aspect of launching the business. Wasserman also was involved in getting the Grammys to move to L.A., and sits on a variety of boards around town, including the L.A. City Library Commission and the Geffen Playhouse. |
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