L.A. ECONOMY SIZZLES; OUTLOOK NEXT YEAR ALSO HOT.

Byline: Gregory J. Wilcox Staff Writer

Los Angeles is moving into the millennium on a roll.

Despite impending job cutbacks in the aerospace sector, Southern California's economy has enough momentum and diversity to keep it on a strong growth track through 2000, according to a regionwide forecast to be released today.

Jobs will be added in all five counties, from the Inland Empire to the San Gabriel and San Fernando valleys and into Ventura County, according to the assessment by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.

The number of jobs in the sprawling region is expected to grow by 2.8 percent by the end of 1999 and then will slow slightly to a 2.4 percent gain next year.

``It's a very solid outlook. The message is that times are good and people are feeling euphoric about the economy,'' said Jack Kyser, chief economist for the LAEDC.

Ted Gibson, chief economist for the California Department of Finance, said the regional outlook might be even better than the LAEDC's prediction.

Gibson has just finished reviewing payroll information not available when the LAEDC study was undertaken, and it shows that California added about 100,000 more jobs last year than showed up in the household survey used to compute the monthly unemployment report.

``We keep being surprised on the upside, which is where we'd rather be,'' Gibson said.

For example, Gibson said his figures now show that employment in the entertainment industry last year grew by 7 percent.

``We also know that withholding-tax revenue in the first half of 1999 has been strong, so we may have some more good news on the job front,'' he said.

According to the LAEDC report, expanded business through seaports and airports, an uptick in orders from Asia for raw materials and home building have been vigorously pushing the region's economy forward.

This year employers will add 181,000 jobs, an increase of about 2.8 percent. Tempering these gains are the loss of classic aerospace jobs, associated with airplane manufacturing, and a projected dip in motion picture production, a hard sector to track because workers can change jobs several times a year.

The strongest job gains will be in the Riverside-San Bernardino area, with Ventura County and Orange County next.

The sharp note of job losses in the Long Beach area, as the Boeing Co. winds down production on two lines of commercial jets, is the only sour sound in the midyear assessment. About 6,000 people are working on the Boeing programs.

``They are going to take a very significant hit. Several thousand workers will lose their jobs, and right now there is nowhere for them to go. And if they are a little bit older, it's going to be tough for them to get resituated. It's a major challenge,'' Kyser said.

Here's a snapshot of the regional outlook:

In the Los Angeles County-Long Beach metropolitan region, which stretches from the Antelope Valley down into the San Gabriel Valley, nonfarm employment will grow by 2.1 percent, or 84,300 jobs, this year. Growth will slow to 1.9 percent, or 75,100 new jobs, next year.

Industries expected to record strong performances over the next 18 months include biomedical, business and professional management, financial services, home construction, tourism and technology.

Aerospace, apparel manufacturing, health services and motion picture and television production could experience losses or remain flat.

The Riverside-San Bernardino area will lead the region in the percentage of job-growth increase with a 4.7 percent gain this year. The area is vying with San Diego County as the hottest in California for home building.

Manufacturing also is continuing to expand, and 13.6 million square feet of warehouse and distribution space is under construction in the Inland Empire. Unemployment is expected to fall to 5.2 percent by the end of the year, while personal income will grow by 6.7 percent.

Ventura County has been on a growth tear, with nonfarm employment gaining 4.1 percent this year. Factors credited with the strong performance include work on a California State University campus in Camarillo, residential and commercial construction, and growth of the technology sector.

This year, Kyser expects permits to be issued for 4,380 new housing units in Ventura County, the highest number since 1989.

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The unemployment rate in Los Angeles County is expected to drop to its lowest level in a decade.