L.A. DISASTER 2000? POLICE GEAR UP FOR Y2K COMPUTER CHAOS.

Byline: Deborah Sullivan Daily News Staff Writer

When the clock strikes midnight Dec. 31, 1999, the new millennium may start like this: Computers crash, credit cards and ATMs won't work, the city goes dark and telephones fall silent.

Emboldened by the mayhem and confusion, criminals loot stores, burglars prowl neighborhoods, thugs take over the streets.

Anarchy envelops the city of Los Angeles.

Fear not: If the ultimate Y2K nightmare occurs, the LAPD plans to be ready.

Los Angeles Police Department officials, taking no chances, have asked the mayor and City Council to set aside $4.5 million to keep as many as 300 more officers on patrol around the clock for a week before and after the turn of the century.

``Obviously, we don't want to overreact, nor alarm the public,'' said Los Angeles police Cmdr. David Kalish. ``However, we simply want to be prepared. Therefore, we have allocated overtime funds, as a precaution, in case we need that during the week before or after.''

The year 2000 meltdown, also known as Y2K, would be caused by a programming flaw that would cause some computers, software programs and microprocessors to interpret the abbreviated date '00 as 1900 rather than 2000. The result could be incorrect data processing and equipment malfunctions.

If computer networks crash, Los Angeles could go dark, causing traffic jams beyond anything the city has experienced, tying up officers and causing unprecedented fear, Y2K experts said.

A loss of power would trigger burglar alarms in cacophonous tandem, Kalish said. Meanwhile, real crooks could capitalize on the chaos.

``There is the opportunity for criminal activity, so we have to be prepared for that,'' Kalish said.

Overly pessimistic

The LAPD leads the region in preparing for possible year 2000 anarchy.

``Frankly, we're not expecting any major problems at all, but we are making some contingency plans,'' said Sgt. Kevin Krafft of the Burbank Police Department's high-technology unit.

Lt. Lief Nicolaisen, commander of the Glendale Police Department' special-response team, said he expects technical glitches but no public upheaval.

``We don't anticipate that there's going to be massive civil unrest,'' he said. ``We expect that some systems might fail. We're prepared to continue to deliver police service, regardless of any failures that might occur.''

New York, however, is prepping for the century transition and has set aside a total of $300 million since 1997 to cover the cost, said Brian Cohen, executive director of the Y2K project.

``My biggest concern is that not only is the city of New York's government prepared, but that all of the major organizations and entities in New York are prepared,'' he said.

Unlike Los Angeles, however, New York has no money set aside to pay for police overtime during the new year of 2000. Cohen said police would make requests for any overtime needed at a later time.

Citizens concerned

At Recon 1, a disaster preparedness store in Tarzana, co-owner Peter Kalaydjian said that if his customers are any measure, 2000 will come in with a bang. The store has sold more than $10,000 in food and gear to some, he said.

``Those computers are going to go nuts,'' he predicted.

According to Carl Howe, director of computing strategies at Cambridge, Mass.-based Forrester Research, the effects of the Y2K bug will not hit all at once Jan. 1, 2000, but will be spread out over time.

``Our view is it's going to feel a little bit like a natural disaster,'' he said. ``Nobody's going to die because of it. Your phone may not work; you may lose electric power.''

Rick Worthington, a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Southern California, said people are missing the big picture when they look at the computer glitch.

``The Y2K problem is an example of how our society is overly optimistic about technology,'' he said.

Not the LAPD.

The department is preparing for a long, wild New Year's weekend, regardless of whether computers and the electric power grid crashes.

New Year's Eve 2000 falls on a Friday night, so celebratory complications like midnight gunfire and drunk driving may be rowdier than ever.

Kalish cautioned that the department is preparing for - not predicting - what New Year 2000 could bring. The overtime allocation would be set aside in reserve - available if needed, but not mandated for use, he said.

``We're not expecting these problems,'' Kalish said. ``These are just hypothetical issues that we're looking at in our preparation, because nobody knows what the impact of Y2K will be.''

In addition, the department is asking for $841,000 for computer upgrades for the year 2000.

Citywide plan

The Police Department's year 2000 plan is part of citywide policy by Mayor Richard Riordan to stem problems before they start.

``The city of Los Angeles has taken a proactive approach to Y2K,'' said Ellis Stanley, an assistant city administrative officer who heads the emergency preparedness division.

``We have developed a millennium management task force, in which we are reaching all segments of our community, and we're confident that when Jan. 1, 2000, rolls around the city will be prepared.''

The $100 million effort covers year 2000 upgrades to all city computer systems, training, workshops and contingency plans for whatever community emergencies arise, said Frank Martinez, director of the Year 2000 Project.

The $4.5 million police overtime package would be added to that budget if it is approved, he said.

Transportation and utilities could be frozen by computer glitches, so the harbor, airports and utility departments are slated to get 70 percent of the city's Y2K budget.

Power, water and telephone shutdowns could cripple the city if they occur.

``The longest Los Angeles has been without power has been 62 hours,'' during the 1994 Northridge Earthquake, Stanley said. ``What happens if we're out of power for two weeks?''

In the case of major water or power failure, Stanley said, looting or hoarding could ensue. He thinks that's a slim possibility, though.

``One of the scenarios some people are painting is if we're out for a period of time, people would be hoarding food or trying to get supplies from other people or warehouses,'' he said.

``In good conscience we have to take a look at those scenarios, but I think they are extreme.''

Potential weaknesses

State and federal governments are helping cities prepare for the millennial unknown.

Vincent Montane, chief of resource planning for the state Office of Emergency Services, said the agency is reviewing everything from aircraft safety to navigation and will conduct eight workshops next summer to train local government staffs in Y2K emergencies.

``Certainly there is a potential if we have weaknesses within our systems, there are those who certainly will take advantage of those opportunities, and those are things we have to plan for as well,'' Montane said.

For emergency management specialists, the changing millennium is a dream come true - an earth-shaking event they can plan for in advance.

``We know when it's coming,'' said Marc Wolfson, a spokesman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency in Washington, D.C. ``So we can be alert and on standby to deal with any situations that might occur in which the state and local governments might need assistance.''

Staff Writer Douglas Haberman contributed to this story.