L.A.'s best-known economist relies on real-world evidence. (Inside the Crystal Balls - Number-Crunching L.A.'s Economy).

JACK Kyser is not a classically trained economist. He has no doctorate or master's degree on the subject and only took economic classes at the University of Southern California while pursuing his undergraduate degree in industrial design.

But turn on the radio or pick up the newspaper and sooner or later Kyser, chief economist of the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp., shows up with a pithy quote or sound bite summarizing how the local economy is faring. There are a dozen or more economists who focus on Southern California but no one is as ubiquitous as Kyser -- not by a long shot.

"It's kind of scary," he says in an interview. "People come up to you and ask you what your thoughts are on where the economy is going. This means they are making business decisions on what you think."

He has become such an institution among local talking heads that he describes himself as a "utility." A search of Dow Jones Interactive turns up almost 4,500 citations. Last year alone the EDC logged more than 2,000 media calls.

After the Northridge earthquake reporters tracked him down at his home to ask him about the disaster's economic effects. More recently, it's been the energy crisis, the port lockout and Sept. 11.

"Jack Kyser is the one person who everybody goes to because he really understands L.A.," says friend Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist at the California Association of Realtors. "It comes from living here and loving L.A. He really loves what he does and it comes across just talking to him."

The question is whether the media turn to Kyser because of his analytical prowess or because he is always available for a comment about the local economy that doesn't ramble.

Routinely returns calls

It can be a sensitive topic among the local business press because when deadlines draw near and a reporter is desperately searching for background about the ports or the film industry or something more obscure, like fabricated metals or jewelry manufacturing, Kyser routinely provides the information. That's something other economists are not always so quick to do.

But because Kyser is a generalist, he cannot be up to speed on every nuance in every industry. Sometimes, in fact, he's reliant on the research of others, such as when he uses numbers from another economist in estimating that the port lockout was costing up to $1 billion a day -- an estimate that has since been disputed. For this reason, business journalists are some times reluctant to quote Kyser if a more specialized economist is available.

Kyser can be a sensitive topic for other economists, as well.

Economist Ross DeVol of the Milken Institute in Santa Monica calls Kyser a "great institution for L.A." but believes that he succumbs too easily to reporters' thirst for simple answers. "I think he focuses too much on being quoted in the media, and when you do that you open yourself up to feeling you have to have a number for somebody," he says.

Kyser acknowledges that he is always ready to answer a media call. When he gets back to the office after a meeting and finds six messages from reporters and six from businesspeople, he will call back the reporters first.

Still, he says, he tries to resist the easy numbers.

"The first response always is you can't say. You are still sorting through the stuff," he admits. "But a lot of time they keep pressing and keep pressing and won't let up. Finally, you do something to the best of your ability."

He offers lots of projections about how events around town -- planned or otherwise -- will impact the local economy. Before the Andy Warhol exhibit opened last May at the Museum of Contemporary Art, for example, Kyser projected that the exhibit could bring $130 million to Los Angeles -- a rough estimate based on the success of the Vincent Van Gogh exhibit at the Los Angeles County Museum of Art. But while Warhol generated 181,000 visitors, 31,000 more than expected, the economic infusion was only $55.8 million -- in part because anticipated out-of-town visitors never showed up.

All economists have their share of miscues. But for Kyser, such forecasting inevitably raises flags because he works for an agency whose very purpose is to promote the L.A. economy. (Not helping is the 10 years he spent before EDC as economist for the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce.)

Kyser himself says he would never lower his credibility by tweaking forecasts, but acknowledges the pull he feels on the development side. "You choose your words carefully," he says. "You try to be diplomatic but honest."

Joseph Faulkner, a Grubb & Ellis real estate broker and member of the EDC's executive committee, dismisses the potential for conflict, calling Kyser's forecasts "unvarnished" and providing the EDC with the kind of credibility that it otherwise wouldn't have.

"It's a good fit for both of us," he says. "We give him a platform to do his work, and he also provides that other wonderful thing - publicity."

Real world economics

Kyser, a native Angeleno, has spent nearly all his career in Los Angeles, save for a stretch that began when he took a job in 1978 as a transportation economist for Union Pacific Railroad. After being laid off in 1982 when the railroad went through a restructuring, he did five-minute weekly spots for the local public radio station that turned into a full-time producer job (perhaps explaining his comfort in front of a microphone). But he found he wasn't making enough money, so he decided to return to L.A., where he got his job as chief economist at the chamber.

Sitting in his office on the 32nd floor of the North Arco Tower one day last week, there are the streams of economic statistics to review: payroll, vacancy rates, taxable sales. He plugs that data into an admittedly "very simple little model" of 10 equations.

Kyser, who has a master's in business administration, is especially aware of the dearth of available data in certain industries that can skew job growth numbers. Motion picture employment, with its many self-employed workers, is notoriously difficult to follow.

But Kyser does not focus on econometric modeling, so beyond number crunching, he relies on real world sources. There are stacks of newspapers and trade journals on his desk and on the floor around him -- what he calls the most "bizarre" reading list around.

And he puts his ear close to the ground, talking to business owners he meets about the economy or pestering real estate agents about whether speculators have entered the residential market.

Kyser is heavy on the conference circuit, where he discusses some aspect of the local economy to government, business and other groups. One recent week he spoke at six events, including those held by the California Business Association, KFWB-AM and the San Gabriel Valley Economic Partnership.

"A lot of people think (forecasters) just have a model. You input numbers into the model, and that will tell you what's going on," says Kyser, who lives in Downey. "A model just helps you organize your thoughts. But if you want to know what is going on you stick your finger in the dirt and you get a sense."

He is most proud of his 1984 forecast that the Russian pullout of the Olympic games would not result in a financial flop for Los Angeles. He says that call made his reputation with the local media.

He also points to his forecast in the early 1990s of a far deeper recession than other economists had expected the result of the dissipated aerospace business.

More recently, he generally has been on the right track, forecasting that Northern California would suffer more economic tumult than the south and estimating that this year the state's unemployment rate would average 6.3 percent -- where the rate stood in September. He has been a bit off in projecting county job growth, though not dramatically so.

"Everybody calls Jack, and it's not only that he is available," says James Flanigan, a Los Angeles Times business columnist. "He does his work. He knows his stuff."

Two years ago the Wall Street Journal ranked Kyser number one in an analysis of Los Angeles economic forecasters that included the vaunted Anderson Forecast at UCLA. But like many other economists, he dismisses ratings. "You may be accurate, but then two years later you might not be as accurate," says Kaiser.

He ought to know. The Journal story was a follow up to a 1998 rating of L.A. economic forecasters that placed him dead last.

RELATED ARTICLE: A Look Back

Like other forecasters, Jack Kyser has made many an economic call over the years- some right on target, some goofs and some middling.

* November 1987. One month after the stock market crashed, Kyser said he was "cautiously optimistic" about the local economy, projecting only a 40 percent chance of a recession in 1988. Verdict: Basically on target. The local economy kept adding jobs through 1990.

* October 1991. When some economists were predicting a rebound in the local economy in 1992, Kyser disagreed. He put off any turnaround until 1993, noting the massive job losses in aerospace. "It's scary times. It's not just your typical recession for California and Southern California." Verdict: Hit and miss. The recession turned out to be worse than Kyser expected, with the region not recovering until 1994.

* February 1994. After the Northridge quake, he expected that the massive temblor would do little to hold back the region's recovery. "The score right now is Optimists 1, Doomsayers 0. The recovery should still arrive by the end of the year." Verdict: On target. The turnaround started in the fourth quarter.

* March 1996. With the local economy in recovery but housing prices still in the doldrums, he said the residential real estate market was in "a state of weakness" and could take another year to turn around. Verdict: On target. Prices bottomed out in April 1997 and haven't looked back since.

* July 1998. With the Asian crisis in full swing and job growth slowing, he predicted that the Los Angeles County economy would weaken: "The second half of the year will be much slower growth." Verdict: Off target. The economy kept cooking. In December non-farm employment was up 1.9 percent compared to 12 months earlier.

* May 2001. In the throes of the energy crisis, Kyser predicted that the state economy would absorb higher energy costs. He predicted no more than a one-year slowdown in the local economy. Verdict. Off target. The economy didn't pick up a year later and still hasn't regained strength.