Kurdistan--what are the prospects? After a century of betrayal and bloody repression the Kurdish people wait to see whether history will repeat itself. (against the current).

Despite the interruption of the war in the Middle East, it appears that George W. Bush is determined to complete Pop's unfinished business with Saddam Hussein. Attention has once again turned to the Kurds, and their long struggle for state-hood. Will they get their own state, or will they once again be betrayed and slaughtered as they were after both World War I, and the Gulf War in 1991?

Judging by the past, one would not hold out great hopes. After US President Woodrow Wilson came out in support of self-determination of nations at the end of World War I, the Kurds were promised their own state in 1920 with the Treaty of Sevres. However, within three years Ataturk had gained control, ironically with the help of the Kurds, of the remnants of the Ottoman Empire, and laid the foundations of the Turkish Republic. The subsequent Treaty of Lausanne made no reference to the Kurds, and the new Turkish state brutally put down subsequent Kurdish uprisings, while in Iraq RAF planes bombed Kurds rebelling against the Arab monarchy. In 1946 the Kurds of Iran established a Republic of Mahabad, but it lasted less than a year. In the 1970s legendary Iraqi Kurdish leader, Mustafa Barzani, was left in the lurch by Henry Kissinger after agreement was reached between Iraq and Iran.

In 1991 George Bush senior called on the Kurds to rise up against Saddam Hussein, then stood by while Saddam bombed the Kurds with his helicopter gun-ships. The West then belatedly established a `Safe Haven'--a John Major tautology--as public opinion in the West protested at the plight of the Kurds. Ever since, there has been a de facto Kurdish entity in the northern part of Iraq (South Kurdistan), run by the traditional feudal KDP (Kurdistan Democratic Party) and PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan). In fact, it was the Kurdish people themselves who kicked the hated Ba'ath Party out of Kurdish cities, led by small left-wing parties, which were then crushed by the KDP and PUK returning from the mountains. Subsequently the KDP, led by Massoud Barzani, and the PUK, led by Jalal Talbani, were unable to agree on the spoils (customs revenues from sanctions busting oil going to Turkey), and in 1994 civil war broke out between the two parties, leading to the enclave being divided along Sorani (PUK) and Bahdinani (KDP) dialect lines. Meanwhile, the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) waged a guerrilla war against the Turkish army from 1984 to 1999 in eastern and south-eastern Turkey (north-west Kurdistan), using bases in south Kurdistan, and inspiring a mass struggle that gained support from Kurds in Syria, Iran, Iraq and the former Soviet Union with a Pan-Kurdish program that seriously threatened the whole region, until the leader of the PKK, Abdullah Ocalan, capitulated politically after being captured in 1999.

The PKK has abandoned its aim of establishing a Kurdish state and its mass base of support has been channelled into supporting a campaign for cultural rights, which Turkey is reluctant to grant. Hundreds of thousands of Kurds celebrated the Kurdish/Iranian New Year on 21 March, but in several Turkish cities there were clashes between Kurds and Turkish police. The PKK's Pan-Kurdish appeal led to clashes with the two main parties in South Kurdistan throughout the 1990s. An uneasy peace has reigned in the last few years in South Kurdistan, but Kurds continue to flee to Europe, both from around Kerkuk, in Saddam-controlled territory, and from the autonomous regions run by Barzani and Talabani. This exodus has grown to a flood in recent weeks after Bush's threat of an attack, possibly using nuclear weapons. The exodus from Kurdistan was highlighted in mid-March when a thousand Kurdish asylum seekers arrived in Sicily by boat, leading the Berlusconi Government to declare a state of emergency.

All the governments in the region, apart from Israel, are opposed to a military intervention in Iraq. Turkey, as an ally/client of the United States, will have the most difficulty in resisting US pressure to support any military invasion. Although Turkey has always licked its lips at the prospect of annexing the oil-rich region of Kerkuk, it has a mortal fear that the Americans might endorse a Kurdish state, despite the opposition of Arab states and the lack of enthusiasm for this amongst traditional Kurdish party leaders.

The KDP and PUK, although pro-American, are understandably wary of losing their de facto autonomy, not knowing what plans the United States may have for the region. Although Turkish bases are used by US and British planes supervising the no-fly zone over northern Iraq, it is quite possible that the Americans will go for Baghdad from aircraft carriers in the Gulf or from bases in Kurdistan. The Independent (UK) of 18 March reported a CIA visit to Kurdistan to identify airports that might be used in any assault on Iraq. Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani were reported to be so worried about adverse reactions to publicity about the CIA visit that they promptly sent top level officials to Damascus to assure the Syrian government of their opposition to any attack on Iraq.

George W. appears to believe he doesn't even need a decent reason to attack Iraq. `The United States will not permit the forces of terror to gain the tools of genocide', said Dick Cheney. Saddam has `weapons of mass destruction' and they could fall into the hands of Osama bin Laden. Such is the dominant logic in Washington. The fact that bin Laden hates the secular Saddam seems to be of little significance to the hawks in Washington.

In Kurdistan none of the parties are ready to seize the opportunity to obtain more rights for their own people, and the ordinary people fear another catastrophe and are already beginning to vote with their feet. An attack on Saddam Hussein's Iraq will only cause more havoc and misery in the region.

Andrew Penny is a UK-based writer on central Asia.