Khamenei Urged To Rein In President.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is under increasing pressure to rein in President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad over his radical stance on the Shi'ite theocracy's nuclear and regional ambitions. The pressure is coming from reformists and conservative pragmatists who have intensified their warnings about the threat they believe Ahmadi-Nejad's intransigence poses to national security.

Ahmadi-Nejad on Nov. 12 called his critics "traitors" and "less intelligent than goats", and accused them of urging the West to impose sanctions on Iran. Former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who chairs the powerful Assembly of Experts (AoE) and the Expediency Council (EC), had warned that threats - both economic and military - had to be taken seriously. In a provocative move, Rafsanjani on Nov. 12 was accompanied during his speech by Hossein Mousavian, a former nuclear negotiator, who Ahmadi-Nejad has called a "nuclear spy". Hours later Ahmadi-Nejad claimed the judiciary was under pressure to acquit Mousavian. But a spokesman for the judiciary denied any pressure had been applied on the judge and defended his political independence.

The FT on Nov. 14 quoted Iranian analysts as saying they did not necessarily see Ahmadi-Nejad's comments as a sign that he felt emboldened by the recent replacement of Ali Larijani, the most senior official responsible for the nuclear brief, with a close ally of the president, and a reshuffle of key economic posts in his cabinet. Instead, they said it was an angry reaction to efforts by different political groups to exert pressure on Khamenei, who has the last say in all state affairs, to prevent Ahmadi-Nejad from further radicalising the nuclear programme.

The FT quoted a political analyst as saying: "Ahmadi-Nejad's comments show tensions within the regime are escalating, while he is becoming paranoid that a big network is lobbying against him. His feeling of insecurity is seen in the efforts to appoint only those he believes would not bypass him, as Larijani did".

There are rumours that Khamenei is angry with the president over Larijani's exit, even though he reluctantly gave his final approval after continuation of tensions between the two men. Ahmadi-Nejad on Nov. 12 indirectly addressed the rumours and tried to deny there was a problem, saying: "There are many who assert the president and the [supreme] leader have different views on the nuclear issue and have carried out many plans. But when I sit with him [Khamenei] and look into their plans, we only laugh at their ignorance". The process of Ahmadi-Nejad convincing Khamenei of what approach to take has fuelled political infighting. Ahmadi-Nejad has the advantage of meeting Khamenei more frequently than his critics and being the main source on the domestic and international situation.

Intelligence Minister Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i on Nov. 14 accused Mousavian of passing information "against the country's national security" to the British Embassy in Tehran - in comments indicating no easing in tensions at the top of the theocracy. Mohseni-Eje'i, part of the theocracy's supremacist camp, told reporters: "It is a fact to us [the intelligence ministry] that he gave information against the country's national security to aliens including the British embassy [in Tehran]".

Mousavian was arrested by the intelligence ministry in May and detained for 10 days on security charges. The FT on Nov. 15 quoted a "former senior official" as saying: "Rafsanjani stood up for Mr Mousavian, got him released from jail and made sure he wouldn't go back to jail". His case is currently under investigation by the judiciary although no trial date has been set. But Iran newspaper, a mouthpiece for the government and the supremacists, on Nov. 14 said the "verdict" on Mousavian would be issued by the end of this Iranian month, Nov. 21, which could explain the heightened rhetoric around the case.

An a speech to a select group of students at Elm-o-Sanat [Science & Industry] University, Ahmadi-Nejad on Nov. 12 said: "If local agents [of the West] don't stop their pressure, their names will be disclosed to the Iranian nation". But he said because of "some sensitivities" he would not do so any time soon. He added: "We know they were sending their envoys to disclose information to aliens [the West]... and even encouraging the enemy not to postpone resolutions".

While Ahmadi-Nejad pledged he would not stop short of "conquering the hills of prosperity" through nuclear activities, Rafsanjani warned of "numerous plots" and a "serious danger" threatening the country. Rafsanjani said: "Americans have sent troops wherever they intended to" - in sharp contrast to Ahmadi-Nejad's stand who shrugs off any such threats to Iran.

Pragmatists argue Iran could manage any international crisis through negotiation with the West, in particular with Solana. But Ahmadi-Nejad has recently opposed any talks of this kind, on Nov. 12 saying: "We give commitments only to the International Atomic Energy Agency but no one outside the agency". Larijani recently told Hamshahri daily he decided "to leave the president's hands open". His successor, Sa'id Jalili, is due to meet Solana later this month. It is not clear yet whether Larjiani would accompany him as he did last month right after his resignation following the request by Ayatollah Khamenei.

Ray Takeyh of the US Council on Foreign Relations says he suspects ElBarade'i will "play for time" because IAEA chief has decided his role is to head off a US war on Iran, adding: "At this point, he thinks he's the line between civilisation and disorder". On the opposite side sits US Vice President Dick Cheney who wants military action against Iran. The "Cheney outlook" is that Iran is playing the international community while it clandestinely proceeds in its nuclear pursuits.

John Bolton, another prominent hawk and the former US ambassador to the UN who is now at the neo-con American Enterprise Institute (AEI) in Washington, says: "Time is usually on the side of the proliferator, and in the case of Iran, they have used the time productively". Bolton, speaking recently at an event for his new book, "Surrender Is Not an Option", said there was a time three or four years ago when tough economic sanctions might have worked. But now, he said, Tehran made such progress in its nuclear programme that only two options remained: regime change and targeted military strikes against key nuclear facilities. By regime change, he said, he meant exploiting fragilities in Iran's domestic situation. Still, he said: "I don't believe you can turn regime change on and off like a light switch. That is why the military option has to remain on the table".