Khamenei Seen Having Health Problems.

There may be one more reason why the theocracy might wish to cool things down. According an article by London-based journalist Amir Taheri published in Gulf News of Jan. 31, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's "health is in decline". Taheri added: "This does not mean that he may be incapacitated, but there is no doubt that the establishment is preparing for all eventualities. One sign was a surprise television programme this month in which the Islamic TV's popular star Farzad Hassani invited viewers to name their 'favourite living theologian apart from the current Supreme Guide'.

"Clearly, picking a fight with the rest of the world while coping with a crisis of succession at the top of the regime is not a prospect the Khomeinist establishment would cherish. What should the US and its allies do when, and if, the Khomeinist regime offers a partial retreat? The temptation to make a deal, as well as the pressure in its favour, would be immense. The Bush administration would face a crucial question: whether to allow a dangerous but wounded enemy to recover, or to go for the kill?"

In another article published on Feb. 3, Taheri said Ayatollah Khamenei could not be regarded as being old, adding: "Aged only 67, he is still 11 years younger than his predecessor Khomeini at the time the mullahs seized power in 1979". A study conducted by Fereshteh Rahmani shows that the average mullah in Iran lived 10 years longer than the average believer. Taheri asked: "So, why is Tehran full of rumours that Khamenei may not have many more months ahead of him?"

According to President Ahmadi-Nejad, the rumours were started by "a handful of bankrupt figures who wish to sell themselves to the foreigner". Nevertheless, the fact is that Khamenei has missed quite a few official occasions. Two news agencies linked to the theocracy have reported him to be suffering from "a heavy cold" or "minor complications". Speculation about Khamenei's health has been further intensified by public disputes about who or what might succeed him when and if he is no longer there.

One idea, aired by a few ayatollahs in Qom, is to transform the duties of the supreme leader to a committee of five or nine mullahs chosen by the Assembly of Experts for a fixed period. The idea has been attacked by a number of theocrats, including Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, a rising star of the radical faction, and Ayatollah Muhammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, President Ahmadi-Nejad's patron and religious guide.

The conservative faction, led by former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, is opposed to collective leadership at the summit of the theocracy. Rafsanjani's reason for opposing the formula, however, is not the same as that of Mesbah-Yazdi. The latter wants the role of the supreme leader reinterpreted to create a clear demarcation between the sacred and the temporal. That would mean abandoning Khomeinism and returning to classical Shi'ite doctrine according to which men cannot create perfect governments in the absence of the Hidden Imam - al-Mahdi.

During the absence of al-Mahdi the best believers can do is to tolerate the government in place while making sure it does not pollute the space reserved for faith. Unlike Mesbah-Yazdi, Rafsanjani's approach to the problem is political, not theological. Rafsanjani has always believed that the position of the supreme leader was one tailor-made for Khomeini and that, after Khomeini's death, no one could claim it. While Mesbah-Yazdi wants a weak government but a strong clergy, Rafsanjani wants the opposite.

Rafsanjani believes that emerging states like Iran need a system in which power is concentrated in the hands of those asked to "do things", i.e., the executive. This is why, in 1989, he persuaded Khomeini to abolish the post of the prime minister and transfer its powers to the president of the republic. Earlier he had managed to marginalise and then banish Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, the man expected to succeed Khomeini as supreme leader.

Rafsanjani always wanted a weak supreme leader who would perform ceremonial functions, leaving the real business of government in the hands of the "strongman", i.e., Rafsanjani himself. It was based on that calculation that Rafsanjani staged what amounted to a coup in the immediate aftermath of Khomeini's death by claiming that the dying Supreme Leader had named Ali Khamenei as his successor.

Over the years, however, Khamenei proved that he was not the weak junior mullah that Rafsanjani had taken him to be. By the mid-1990s, Khamenei had established himself as the real power in the theocracy, dashing Rafsanjani's hopes of reducing the supreme leader to the status of the queen of England.

Mesbah-Yazdi wants a supreme leader who has power without responsibility. Rafsanjani wants a supreme leader who has neither. This is why Rafsanjani is openly promoting one of his proteges, the former President Muhammad Khatami, as the future supreme leader when, and if, a vacancy occurs.

A natural charmer, Khatami has always been loyal to Rafsanjani. He has the advantage of not having a political base of his own. Taheri noted: "Khatami, who loves foreign travel and mixing with the global glitterati, would be an ideal choice. As supreme guide, he would tour the world, smile, talk of Rousseau and Hegel, and hoodwink the world into believing that the Islamic Republic is as democratic as Switzerland. And, then, Rafsanjani could organise his own return as a powerful president before age catches up with him".

Rafsanjani, aged 73, hopes to make a comeback as early as 2008. A little noticed law recently passed by the Islamic Consultative Majlis, the Khomeinist parliament in Tehran, stipulates that presidential and parliamentary elections be held at the same time. This could be interpreted to cut Ahmadi-Nejad's presidential term from four years to three so that fresh elections for president can be held at the same time as a new Majlis is elected in 2008.

Ahmadi-Nejad and his radical allies, however, are unlikely to take all that with their arms folded. Having planned and plotted for years to seize power, they are unlikely to bow out without a fight. Many in Tehran believe that if the power struggle is fought to the full, Ahmadi-Nejad's chances of victory are better than that of his rivals' including Rafsanjani.

Taheri said: "If Khamenei leaves the stage for health reasons, or is taken away by the grim reaper, expect a spectacular three-cornered fight in Tehran involving the radicals led by...[Ahmadi-Nejad], the wealthy mullahs led by Rafsanjani, and the traditional ayatollahs of Qom. It would be great fan to watch".